Reverse Value ?

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Phoenixking
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Phoenixking

Reverse Value ?
« on: October 10, 2019, 06:01:06 AM »

I'm a rookie when it comes to betting,So please bare with me. ;D

So lets assume a soft bookie is giving the following odds (Bet365)
Home          1.44 >> 63.45 %
Draw            3.75 >> 24.37 %
Away            7.5 >>   12.18%

Now Sharp closing line (SBO)
Home           1.46>> 61.31%
Draw            3.85>> 23.25%
Away            5.8 >>  15.43%

All implied probability are without vig.

Now the soft bookie has overestimated the odds for home team by 2 %(63%-61.31%= 2.14%)
Do you consider this as value or

Soft bookie underestimating the odds for away team by 3 % (12.18%-15.43%= -3.25%), Means they have 3 % more chance to win.

Thx for the read. :)
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arbusers
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Re: Reverse Value ?
« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2019, 08:52:15 AM »

Both assumptions might be wrong. I will explain why.
1. You can't figure out what is the fair price for the home team, because you don't know where the rest of the market is. You can't take SBObet as a reference even though it is valid to say that SBObet is always generous for the favorites and low odds. Obviously, you have no reason to take 1.44 when you can take 1.46. But even like this, 1.46 cant be considered ''value'' before we see the rest of the market. Notice, that it is very difficult to find value in sharps like SBObet, Pinnacle, etc.
2. Again 7.5 for away team cant be considered as a value because we don't know where the rest of the market is. You should take into account, that SBObet is very tough with away teams and underdogs. Their high odds are awful for years now. You shouldn't take this 5.8 as a reference at all. I m sure in a situation like this, Pinnacle would offer something more than 7.
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Phoenixking
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Re: Reverse Value ?
« Reply #2 on: October 10, 2019, 12:35:12 PM »

You are correct my friend, Pinnacle odds for the away team is around 6.82. The match in question is America De cali Vs U. Magdalena.(Columbian main league) Home won by 2 goals.

https://www.oddsportal.com/soccer/colombia/liga-aguila/america-de-cali-union-magdalena-AysutU3e/

Perhaps I should consider pinnacle closing line / Befair exchange with enough liquidity as to find whats the opinion of the market ? instead of SBO. And then compare it to the soft bookies to find value ?

Thx again for the reply. :)
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arbusers
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Re: Reverse Value ?
« Reply #3 on: October 10, 2019, 01:36:51 PM »

Many people are comparing the soft bookmakers' odds with the odds from Pinnacle to determine value. That is an easy thing to do, but not the best way to go forward. You will need to filter some markets as you will see it is not that easy as it shows.
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Phoenixking
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Re: Reverse Value ?
« Reply #4 on: October 10, 2019, 02:20:45 PM »

Much appreciated feedback man. :)
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