The most profitable sports for value betting

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Phoenixking
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The most profitable sports for value betting
« on: October 11, 2019, 08:31:54 AM »

Which sports do you guys prefer the most for value betting? I assume value can be found in any sports, but more specifically what do you guys do when there are very little matches for betting on soccer ? (Like now international break)
« Last Edit: October 11, 2019, 11:55:36 AM by arbusers » Logged
VidaBlue
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Re: Th most profitable sports for value betting
« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2019, 10:58:38 AM »

If your value betting strategy and experience is very centered around soccer, it is probably uncomfortable to use this in other sports. Otherwise, there's plenty of value in other sports, often more.

Soccer has to be the sport which has the largest turnover and therefore also the most analyzed sport, where bookmakers have very accurate models and streamlined processes compared to other sports. Therefore, if you're convinced that you have found value (and you're right) in other sports, I would estimate that the potential ROIs are higher.

I generally have much higher ROIs in other sports such as hockey and american football, the latter very difficult for bookmakers to model.
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Phoenixking
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Re: Th most profitable sports for value betting
« Reply #2 on: October 11, 2019, 11:49:01 AM »

You really must have or anyone for that matter,should be very knowledgeable about the sport in order to have good return of interest without having to lean on the sharp bookie for reference.

Thx for the reply. :)
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chrisgr1984
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Re: The most profitable sports for value betting
« Reply #3 on: October 11, 2019, 02:11:04 PM »

I disagree you need to be an expert on a sport in order to apply value betting strategies and algorithms . In fact you can even do it without even know at all a sport. What it matters most are the DATA . More data you have , easier you beat them. And also you need to be good on coding or at least to have someone with you that is very good on coding. The weakest point of bookies is this , the DATA , so thats why in more exotic sports or leagues(for famous sports) you are getting involved, the better result and ROI you will have because you can beat them with DATA collection
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VidaBlue
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Re: The most profitable sports for value betting
« Reply #4 on: October 11, 2019, 02:47:49 PM »

I totally agree with you Chris. Just to avoid possible misunderstanding if I did not express myself clearly on the soccer part. By "being uncomfortable" I mean not having data that supports that your strategy could be profitable - like skydiving without a parachute - not having indication of who is sharp and who is not. Applying knowledge in the sport is a different strategy and easier practiced away from the big leagues where the line is not being formed by advanced models and thousands of opinions.

For instance: I have no idea what pesapollo is, never heard about it. But I made a cautious value bet once in this category, with reference to a bookmaker who is usually much sharper than the other.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2019, 02:51:16 PM by VidaBlue » Logged
Phoenixking
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Re: The most profitable sports for value betting
« Reply #5 on: October 11, 2019, 03:58:43 PM »

I totally agree with you Chris. Just to avoid possible misunderstanding if I did not express myself clearly on the soccer part. By "being uncomfortable" I mean not having data that supports that your strategy could be profitable - like skydiving without a parachute - not having indication of who is sharp and who is not. Applying knowledge in the sport is a different strategy and easier practiced away from the big leagues where the line is not being formed by advanced models and thousands of opinions.

For instance: I have no idea what pesapollo is, never heard about it. But I made a cautious value bet once in this category, with reference to a bookmaker who is usually much sharper than the other.

I assumed you higher ROI was in fact due to the edge(Expertise) you had over the bookmaker due to the sport being harder to model by the sharpie.
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Phoenixking
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Re: The most profitable sports for value betting
« Reply #6 on: October 11, 2019, 04:03:51 PM »

I disagree you need to be an expert on a sport in order to apply value betting strategies and algorithms . In fact you can even do it without even know at all a sport. What it matters most are the DATA . More data you have , easier you beat them. And also you need to be good on coding or at least to have someone with you that is very good on coding. The weakest point of bookies is this , the DATA , so that's why in more exotic sports or leagues(for famous sports) you are getting involved, the better result and ROI you will have because you can beat them with DATA collection

A total noob here, What can one do with the data without knowing where it goes or what it does ? Coding and form analysis are best left to the sharpie provided you can find one for the sport, Cause there is no way i'm beating those syndicates with a excel that says poisson distribution in pink on top.     
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VidaBlue
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Re: The most profitable sports for value betting
« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2019, 10:34:47 AM »

Don't overestimate your adversaries. Everyone has weak points, but maybe beating syndicates shouldn't be your ambition right away unless you really specialize yourself in some niche market. You could start by arbing or just trading small amounts on every single value bet that comes up - if you can code it is a plus but not required. It may not give you much profit in the beginning, but you'll start building knowledge, your own data, based on what is available to you in terms of betting environment and methods for finding bets. I think this kind of data is unique, since it is based upon YOU and hardly suitable for another person with other methods in another place. As you're data sample increases, so does your knowledge and you should be increasingly comfortable value betting. Of course it is not easy as there are many challenges such as limits, psychology and lack of time, but with dedication it can work.

I think a spreadsheet is fine for this scenario btw and you may already have had a good head start valuebetting in soccer.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2019, 10:40:14 AM by VidaBlue » Logged
Phoenixking
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Re: The most profitable sports for value betting
« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2019, 11:33:40 AM »

Words of wisdom my friend. :)

Yesterday, My value betting did end in a profit of $8 with around 9 Bets, $90 Stake, More samples needed off course. But i'm hopeful.

Thx.
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Wolfie
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Re: The most profitable sports for value betting
« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2019, 11:41:24 AM »

Words of wisdom my friend. :)

Yesterday, My value betting did end in a profit of $8 with around 9 Bets, $90 Stake, More samples needed off course. But i'm hopeful.

Thx.

You should not see daily profit in value. This way you may have three bad days in a row and you may leave value altogether. You should see profit after 2000 bets. Because daily there there are to many ups and downs. This does not depend on time but number of individual value bets and total volume(of course with staking plan).
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Phoenixking
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Re: The most profitable sports for value betting
« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2019, 03:30:23 PM »

Exactly ! I understand its a long game. :)

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VidaBlue
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Re: The most profitable sports for value betting
« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2019, 08:22:32 PM »

In the last week of May I lost 22 times in a row, average odds were 2.30. It marked the beginning of a very negative trend that continued for 3 weeks. I have analyzed this period various times to see if there also could be something else than just bad luck, but haven't been able to find anything so far. Rarely had a losing month before and never something as extreme as this. It took me until the end of August to get back to the same level as before the losses. June was tough and gave me some irrational thoughts, although I've had many exposures to losing streaks before. So expect that many consecutive losses will happen, due to variance and whatever, and try to be prepared mentally.
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dealer wins

Re: The most profitable sports for value betting
« Reply #12 on: October 12, 2019, 09:22:48 PM »

Thats a one in 5 million chance!!
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Phoenixking
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Re: The most profitable sports for value betting
« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2019, 10:29:53 AM »

In the last week of May I lost 22 times in a row, average odds were 2.30. It marked the beginning of a very negative trend that continued for 3 weeks. I have analyzed this period various times to see if there also could be something else than just bad luck, but haven't been able to find anything so far. Rarely had a losing month before and never something as extreme as this. It took me until the end of August to get back to the same level as before the losses. June was tough and gave me some irrational thoughts, although I've had many exposures to losing streaks before. So expect that many consecutive losses will happen, due to variance and whatever, and try to be prepared mentally.

Very strange indeed, its a mathematical possibility off course. Was it a dogsmeal ? (different markets, different bookies, different odds, different leagues)   
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banglard00
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Re: The most profitable sports for value betting
« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2019, 12:31:04 PM »

There is huuuge value on live soccer but only on games that are not available on asian bookies. But you will need lots of accounts as you will be limited very fast.
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