My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months

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Almanacc
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Almanacc

My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months
« on: October 17, 2019, 03:16:27 PM »

Friends, hello everyone!
Sorry for my English  ;)

We are the Almanacc team, I create this topic in order to share my experience in Value. I would also like to find interested people with whom I can exchange experiences and some interesting developments in the field of Value Betting.

All our work is based on work with the Bet365 bookmaker. I will start with the history of working with this bookmaker. In February 2019, our team collected a 101,000-match dataset from the forks of the Positivebet scanner. Further, this dataset was analyzed in detail, analysis was performed in Python using the standard libraries pandas, numpy, scipy, plotly.

In the course of our work, we wrote our own basic functions that facilitated the further analysis of such a large dataset. (A little later I will show you an example from our dataset)

After a preliminary analysis, we began to build a mathematical model using a genetic algorithm to optimize and select parameters. One of the parameters was selected using the xgboost algorithm. (I can tell in more detail if this is interesting to someone)

From the results, the algorithm for 4 months earned 100,000 euros. The financial strategy assumed a 2 percent flat (2 percent were derived experimentally, show the best combination of ROI, maximum drawdown)

The average ROI for the period from April to July was 7 percent. I can give a list of bookmakers with whom Value was in an individual communication. Below I will attach the MeanValue chart for the period from April to July 2019

I would like to talk with teams or professionals who also work deeply with Value on the topic of exchange of experience.
I wish you success and victories!
« Last Edit: October 17, 2019, 03:21:00 PM by Almanacc » Logged
VidaBlue
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months
« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2019, 11:03:18 AM »

The weapon used to beat your data based adversaries is using even more data and it seems obvious to use a data source that actually depicts indiscrepancies such as an arb/value-scanner. So congratulations with your results and this very quantitative approach!

I am unable to understand your use of bet365 limited accounts. You state that all your work is based on the bet365 bookmaker and in the answer you confirm that these are limited accounts. If you were to make 100.000 euros out of that, I assume you must be a large team have many accounts, not just one? Or is it true that bet365 would let you do that on only few accounts?
I programmed a bot which I ran last year on my limited bet365 account. It just made bets on anything, but wasn't very succesful though (ROI 0.25%, 10k bets), probably because I did not use any kinds of filtering. I found the event useful though, as bet365 now acts as reference in some occasions. Even if I had had 7% ROI, I hardly believe that bet365 would allow me to reach such a profit from small limited stakes - if I was a bookie I wouldn't. And how can you use 2 percent flat strategy on a limited account?

But maybe I have just misunderstood something. Maybe it is all your work that is based on the bet365 bookmaker being your reference and bets are placed at other bookmakers, softs, sharps, exchanges?

Anyways, thank you for this post - it is really admirable to see such a data based dedication. I might send you a message for exchange of experiences. My approach is also quite data based, but not comparable with the scale of your project. I have decided to move the execution part exclusively into shop betting, so that might differ much from your procedures.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2019, 11:42:55 AM by VidaBlue » Logged
arbusers
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months
« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2019, 09:22:19 AM »

A limited Bet365 account still keeps a lot of value.

Bet365 tactic is to initially limit the account at 1% of initial limits. For example, if you had a maximum bet of 15.000 Euros before getting limited, the maximum bet will be 150 euros after getting limited. Now, I know this limit is a pain, but what if you are value betting instead of arbing? Because of their bigger numbers, value bets look extremely good even if you have limits like these. A couple of bots that I know, are having an average stake of 8 euros and 15 euros respectively. They are both perfectly fine with Bet365 limits.

As a side comment, I would like to add that Bet365 limited accounts are also working perfectly fine with trebles and above, and those who know this game do not care about limits.

In the end, there are reports that after a lot of sharp action of this kind, (value betting, trebles etc) Bet365 might limit your account to 0, and that is the end of it.
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Trevorr
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months
« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2019, 05:07:16 PM »

I'm sure Bet365 will "solve" this issue with limited accounts soon. I wouldn't invest much energy now into solution that rely on it. They are striking back.
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VidaBlue
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months
« Reply #4 on: October 23, 2019, 10:20:57 AM »

As a side comment, I would like to add that Bet365 limited accounts are also working perfectly fine with trebles and above, and those who know this game do not care about limits.

This is my own experience with my limited bet365 and trebles. I have a value project parlaying very small value odds in big leagues until the ticket reaches approximately 2. I am able to bet rather big on my bet365 account when it is a single bet, but as soon as I parlay this bet with another, my allowed staked is very reduced to one tenth or less. For instance:

Single bet 1.4, allowed stake: 10 units
Parlay bet 1.4 x 1.4 = 1.96, allowed stake: 1 unit

It is not close to being inverse proportional to potential winnings as one could expect, it is much less when parlaying!? This does not change with trebles (3 matches) or bigger parlays, quite the contrary. Can someone confirm that other limited bet365 accounts have a different behaviour?

My test has been done very recently.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2019, 12:14:56 PM by VidaBlue » Logged
alessandrosm
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months
« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2019, 03:56:59 PM »

Hello! I’m talking about value. I myself work on value, I have a good profit at a distance (by the way, it’s like yours) from 5-10 every month, I put in manual about 2000 values ​​every month on bet365, I came out with an income of 20,000 euros every month.
Now with my partner as a programmer, I am doing automation. It would be interesting to communicate with you, share experiences. I know that few people use valui people, because of the fear of losing money, it is therefore nice to see a like-minded person. You wrote that you used positivebet, I use it too, are you by any chance not from Russia?
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VidaBlue
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months
« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2019, 12:04:53 AM »

I put in manual about 2000 values ​​every month on bet365, I came out with an income of 20,000 euros every month

On the one hand, I am really impressed. These are amazing profits and congratulations for achieving this!

On the other hand, I am skeptical, because I am trying to imagine how this could be done via my own bet365 account. First of all, I find it strange that a bookmaker such as bet365 would allow to be milked 20.000 eur month after month. Unless you do multi-accounts? If it is just a single account, I suppose it is limited. Let's suppose that bet365 indeed accepts these profits and focus on one limited account. These are some of my limits just tested today:

(I test max limit on every outcome to interpolate how the limit would be at odds 2.0 and the limit is then converted from my currency to eur and rounded to the nearest 10)
  • NBA moneyline 1hr before game time: 40 eur
  • MLB handicapline 2hrs before game time: 30 eur
  • MLB moneyline 1hr before game time: 40 eur
  • Euroleague 1x2-line tomorrow: 30 eur
  • Italy 1x2-line serie A on Friday: 60 eur
  • PL 1x2-line on Friday: 120 eur
  • PL O/U-line on Friday: at least 150 eur (bet was accepted  ::))
There may be different limits live and closer to game start.

So suppose I am making 2.000 value bets per month with the aim of a profit of 20.000 eur, I would need something like an average stake of 100 eur with 10% ROI only betting on the very big soccer leagues which, from what I know so far, seems unrealistic - both finding so many bets, but also achieving the high ROI, but I am not claiming it isn't true. Maybe your account(s) are different so these situations are not comparable.

Are you achieving very high ROIs just betting on the big leagues? Are your limits very different from mine?

I am not trying to prove a point nor trying to win an argument, it just still doesn't make entirely sense to me, when I compare with my bet365 situation. I simply seek clarification, because I have given up my bet365 account long ago and this thread has made me wonder if I should consider it again. It would be great to consider bet365 once again.
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esi
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esi

Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months
« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2019, 01:40:59 AM »

I put in manual about 2000 values ​​every month on bet365, I came out with an income of 20,000 euros every month

On the one hand, I am really impressed. These are amazing profits and congratulations for achieving this!

On the other hand, I am skeptical, because I am trying to imagine how this could be done via my own bet365 account. First of all, I find it strange that a bookmaker such as bet365 would allow to be milked 20.000 eur month after month. Unless you do multi-accounts? If it is just a single account, I suppose it is limited. Let's suppose that bet365 indeed accepts these profits and focus on one limited account. These are some of my limits just tested today:

(I test max limit on every outcome to interpolate how the limit would be at odds 2.0 and the limit is then converted from my currency to eur and rounded to the nearest 10)
  • NBA moneyline 1hr before game time: 40 eur
  • MLB handicapline 2hrs before game time: 30 eur
  • MLB moneyline 1hr before game time: 40 eur
  • Euroleague 1x2-line tomorrow: 30 eur
  • Italy 1x2-line serie A on Friday: 60 eur
  • PL 1x2-line on Friday: 120 eur
  • PL O/U-line on Friday: at least 150 eur (bet was accepted  ::))
There may be different limits live and closer to game start.

So suppose I am making 2.000 value bets per month with the aim of a profit of 20.000 eur, I would need something like an average stake of 100 eur with 10% ROI only betting on the very big soccer leagues which, from what I know so far, seems unrealistic - both finding so many bets, but also achieving the high ROI, but I am not claiming it isn't true. Maybe your account(s) are different so these situations are not comparable.

Are you achieving very high ROIs just betting on the big leagues? Are your limits very different from mine?

I am not trying to prove a point nor trying to win an argument, it just still doesn't make entirely sense to me, when I compare with my bet365 situation. I simply seek clarification, because I have given up my bet365 account long ago and this thread has made me wonder if I should consider it again. It would be great to consider bet365 once again.
bet365 accounts depend on country, if fr balcan you get 1month+ until you get banned, else if accounts are from rest of eu they will last 6 7 months
if he made that much money he must have had a high bankroll, even that i highly doubt since bet limits you in max a week so without multiple accounts i dont think its possible and i talk from working with highly skilled bot operators.

« Last Edit: October 24, 2019, 07:09:18 AM by arbusers » Logged
arbusers
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months
« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2019, 07:10:01 AM »

Last post modified in accordance to forum's policy.
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tomkruiz
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months
« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2019, 07:26:36 AM »

This does not change with trebles (3 matches) or bigger parlays, quite the contrary. Can someone confirm that other limited bet365 accounts have a different behaviour?

My test has been done very recently.

I have the same experience with them. I used to place mug bets here and there with occasionally trying something similar to Martingale when I lose the mug bet just so I try to return what I lost previously, including the next bet amount. It was usually 3 or 4 matches on the bet slip that gave the total odds of what I thought was enough. I expected the bet365 account, even though it was gubbed, to allow for higher stakes on bet slips like that. However, they didn't allow it, they even allowed less than I'd be able to bet on a single game. It was 8-9 months ago.
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alessandrosm
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months
« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2019, 07:38:55 PM »


you’ll be a little mistaken, I bet an average of 215 euros per currency (winnings + 210-220), while this is not the limit, it is possible to raise the rate somewhere up to 270 euros, but this is not yet possible with my bank roll, I use multi-accounting. 3 accounts per day on average.
I put in manual about 2000 values ​​every month on bet365, I came out with an income of 20,000 euros every month

On the one hand, I am really impressed. These are amazing profits and congratulations for achieving this!

On the other hand, I am skeptical, because I am trying to imagine how this could be done via my own bet365 account. First of all, I find it strange that a bookmaker such as bet365 would allow to be milked 20.000 eur month after month. Unless you do multi-accounts? If it is just a single account, I suppose it is limited. Let's suppose that bet365 indeed accepts these profits and focus on one limited account. These are some of my limits just tested today:

(I test max limit on every outcome to interpolate how the limit would be at odds 2.0 and the limit is then converted from my currency to eur and rounded to the nearest 10)
  • NBA moneyline 1hr before game time: 40 eur
  • MLB handicapline 2hrs before game time: 30 eur
  • MLB moneyline 1hr before game time: 40 eur
  • Euroleague 1x2-line tomorrow: 30 eur
  • Italy 1x2-line serie A on Friday: 60 eur
  • PL 1x2-line on Friday: 120 eur
  • PL O/U-line on Friday: at least 150 eur (bet was accepted  ::))
There may be different limits live and closer to game start.

So suppose I am making 2.000 value bets per month with the aim of a profit of 20.000 eur, I would need something like an average stake of 100 eur with 10% ROI only betting on the very big soccer leagues which, from what I know so far, seems unrealistic - both finding so many bets, but also achieving the high ROI, but I am not claiming it isn't true. Maybe your account(s) are different so these situations are not comparable.

Are you achieving very high ROIs just betting on the big leagues? Are your limits very different from mine?

I am not trying to prove a point nor trying to win an argument, it just still doesn't make entirely sense to me, when I compare with my bet365 situation. I simply seek clarification, because I have given up my bet365 account long ago and this thread has made me wonder if I should consider it again. It would be great to consider bet365 once again.
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VidaBlue
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months
« Reply #11 on: November 28, 2019, 10:19:05 AM »

I use multi-accounting. 3 accounts per day on average.

Thank you Alessandro. Multiaccounting (yes or no?) was the information I was looking for. Since you have x number of multi-accounts, the numbers now add up.
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JurishnaNinja
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months
« Reply #12 on: November 28, 2019, 12:14:39 PM »

Hi

I value bet using a bot and my ROI is fluctuating from 3 - 5%. I am still experimenting with parameters . The bot plays on average 200 bets per day. How do you have so big ROI ? You manually value bet with multiple accounts, can you explain your strategy more?

Thanks
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months
« Reply #13 on: December 28, 2019, 11:08:20 AM »

Hello! I’m talking about value. I myself work on value, I have a good profit at a distance (by the way, it’s like yours) from 5-10 every month, I put in manual about 2000 values ​​every month on bet365, I came out with an income of 20,000 euros every month.
Now with my partner as a programmer, I am doing automation. It would be interesting to communicate with you, share experiences. I know that few people use valui people, because of the fear of losing money, it is therefore nice to see a like-minded person. You wrote that you used positivebet, I use it too, are you by any chance not from Russia?

Hello Alessandro , if you are italian we can talk about valuebetting in our country .
write me if you want swap some infos

ciao
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Re: My value betting experience: 100,000 euros for 4 months
« Reply #14 on: January 10, 2020, 01:18:09 PM »

Friends, hello everyone!
Sorry for my English  ;)

We are the Almanacc team, I create this topic in order to share my experience in Value. I would also like to find interested people with whom I can exchange experiences and some interesting developments in the field of Value Betting.

All our work is based on work with the Bet365 bookmaker. I will start with the history of working with this bookmaker. In February 2019, our team collected a 101,000-match dataset from the forks of the Positivebet scanner. Further, this dataset was analyzed in detail, analysis was performed in Python using the standard libraries pandas, numpy, scipy, plotly.

In the course of our work, we wrote our own basic functions that facilitated the further analysis of such a large dataset. (A little later I will show you an example from our dataset)

After a preliminary analysis, we began to build a mathematical model using a genetic algorithm to optimize and select parameters. One of the parameters was selected using the xgboost algorithm. (I can tell in more detail if this is interesting to someone)

From the results, the algorithm for 4 months earned 100,000 euros. The financial strategy assumed a 2 percent flat (2 percent were derived experimentally, show the best combination of ROI, maximum drawdown)

The average ROI for the period from April to July was 7 percent. I can give a list of bookmakers with whom Value was in an individual communication. Below I will attach the MeanValue chart for the period from April to July 2019

I would like to talk with teams or professionals who also work deeply with Value on the topic of exchange of experience.
I wish you success and victories!

I'm doing something very similar—using data science/machine learning techniques in order to identify value. I've been placing bets based off of this system since November 2018 and am currently running a ~25% ROI over ~400 bets, with about a ~68% WR. Would love to compare notes if you're interested :)
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