Value Betting Questions

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Value Betting Questions
« on: November 08, 2019, 06:12:36 AM »

Hello again! I hope you are all fine!
So i am value betting on bet365 and im currently experimenting and gathering data using betburger as my scanner and an automatic software i have to do the job for me. However I have a few questions/thoughts/concerns:
1) Is pinnacle the best sharp to use vs bet365 in all markets? I have seen people using sbo, dafabet, smarkets including pinnacle to find the true odds.
2) Bet365 seems to go harder and harder lately with limitations in many countries. Do you guys get limited fast in your country?
3) I am scanning for minimum 0.50% value bets and i manage to place at least 250 bets within weekend. Do you think that it would be wiser to increase the % and place less bets? For example 1% value bets minimum?
4) I focus on weekends mostly, since there are lots of markets and bet365 makes lots of mistakes, but do you think daily days might worth a shot?
5) According to your experiences, which markets you would suggest me to avoid and why?

Thank you for your time!
« Last Edit: November 08, 2019, 03:09:40 PM by Downbreak » Logged
VidaBlue
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Re: Value Betting Questions
« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2019, 07:04:43 AM »

What I would do:

1) no
2) dunno, haven't used it for a year. Got limited after 200 bets. Subsequently placed 10.000 bets without further limitation
3) yes
4) after 6000 bets: monday has been worst (-3 %), saturday next worst (3 %), other days have been better (+8 %)
5) avoid nothing unless you have data to base it upon. As you discover to be losing in some markets, gradually lower your stakes and if the tendency continues, consider stopping or betting the sharp line after some analysis
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arbusers
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Re: Value Betting Questions
« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2019, 09:41:12 AM »

Recent developments in the bot industries are clearly showing that comparing pinnacle with bet365 might be a good idea mathematically speaking, but the implementation of such a strategy with this bookmaker might not be that easy.
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Trevorr
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Re: Value Betting Questions
« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2019, 11:41:43 AM »

What I would do:

1) no
2) dunno, haven't used it for a year. Got limited after 200 bets. Subsequently placed 10.000 bets without further limitation
3) yes
4) after 6000 bets: monday has been worst (-3 %), saturday next worst (3 %), other days have been better (+8 %)
5) avoid nothing unless you have data to base it upon. As you discover to be losing in some markets, gradually lower your stakes and if the tendency continues, consider stopping or betting the sharp line after some analysis
Can I ask how many months/years it took to find and place 10 000 valuebets with Bet365? what is average stake?
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Re: Value Betting Questions
« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2019, 12:16:40 PM »


3) I am scanning for minimum 0.50% value bets and i manage to place at least 250 bets within weekend. Do you think that it would be wiser to increase the % and place less bets? For example 1% value bets minimum?


Regular bettor do not place 250 bets on single account. With that amount of bets you are not under radar. Even if bet stake is 1-5 euros. 
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Re: Value Betting Questions
« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2019, 12:28:09 PM »

What I would do:

1) no
2) dunno, haven't used it for a year. Got limited after 200 bets. Subsequently placed 10.000 bets without further limitation
3) yes
4) after 6000 bets: monday has been worst (-3 %), saturday next worst (3 %), other days have been better (+8 %)
5) avoid nothing unless you have data to base it upon. As you discover to be losing in some markets, gradually lower your stakes and if the tendency continues, consider stopping or betting the sharp line after some analysis

Hello Vidablue,

Regarding your anwer about bookies to be taken as reference, what is your view about exchanges? Do you believe they offer true value ?

Can at some point odd be misunderstood due to small markets offer and demand?

Many thanks for your colaboration on this forum, very interesting stuff you provide

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Re: Value Betting Questions
« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2019, 03:22:26 PM »

I would like to thank everyone for replying to this thread, I really appreciate that!

1) no
2) dunno, haven't used it for a year. Got limited after 200 bets. Subsequently placed 10.000 bets without further limitation

1) Would be nice if you could give us more info about other sharps you have used or you are experimenting on. I could help with the experiments so we can all expand our data, since my software supports many bookies.
2) As far as I know/see bet365 is one of the best soft. Did you stop using it due to those limitations you mentioned? Did you find a reliable and equal replacement for it?

Regular bettor do not place 250 bets on single account. With that amount of bets you are not under radar. Even if bet stake is 1-5 euros. 

Well I think there are so many factors that can get you on the radar of bet365 especially these days. I have seen accounts getting limited or even restricted with just 60 bets.
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Re: Value Betting Questions
« Reply #7 on: November 10, 2019, 10:51:02 AM »

I'll try to answer the inquiries above with this post.

I made a bot from scratch in 2016 which I then then ran for about 1½ years on 3 soft books, referencing sharps. Huge ROI from one bookie and over 500 bets, which had me banned and decent ROI from second limited bookie account over thousands of bets, no ban. ROI from bet365 limited account was 0.25%, stakes between 15 and 150 EUR. I don’t know what the average stake was, but I have all the data. I suppose that I could have analyzed all this data, but I haven’t prioritized it, as I started dedicating all my time available in shop betting and this data also gets more and more obsolete over time. I also stopped the bot project, which needed maintenance when site scripts changed – I could have continued the project with bet365 and other bookies, but it would be too time consuming, and I kind of like the non-limited shop betting regime. My personal takes from the bot project are some profits, but more importantly: the poor performance, blindly referencing sharps against bet365, has led me to a personal belief that I have based my betting upon ever since:

Sharp vs soft is not a rule cut in stone. The entire group of bookmakers is like a panel of experts each with different abilities and strengths. The person sitting on pinnacle’s chair for instance, is an expert in a lot of areas, a guru with great opening models and superior knowledge from sharp bettors, especially close to game start, but this person is not an expert on everything. Some persons (softs) have very good opening models for predicting odds on games weeks ahead, others are usually wrong. Some experts (softs) are the best on some of the special markets. There are the exchanges, which represent the opinion of the people, true value, but it very much depends on liquidity of course. Then there are probably periods and seasons, where some of the experts tend to go on vacation and their opinions have less value.

If someone wants to base their betting backing opinions on this panel of experts, as if they were race horses, I think it is advisable to observe their performance over time and develop some strategies from that. My observation of bet365 has led me to a high respect of this bookie in general. I think they are very good and may be used as reference in a lot of occasions. Sharing of strategies based upon these observations is possible, but sometimes one bettor’s setup, conditions and habits are so different from the other’s, so therefore I think it is best to make one’s own observations and conclusions.
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Re: Value Betting Questions
« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2019, 04:29:50 PM »

Hello. I placed 800 unique live valuebets at bet365 and unibet on big values, but didnt end in profit, have negative returns. Do anybody have general idea what is going on?
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Re: Value Betting Questions
« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2019, 05:38:42 PM »

I placed 800 unique live valuebets at bet365 and unibet on big values

Could you describe what kind of value was that?
Thank you.
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alealeale
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Re: Value Betting Questions
« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2019, 06:15:24 PM »

Hello. I placed 800 unique live valuebets at bet365 and unibet on big values, but didnt end in profit, have negative returns. Do anybody have general idea what is going on?
Even if I don't do valuebets (just humble arbing) I can answer half your question: my balance at Unibet, Leovegas and Starvegas is the worst compared to all the other bookies I use.
In my opinion you haven't chosen the softest book to work.
Ops, I'm sorry, I didn't read "live"...I was referring only to prematch bets.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2019, 06:40:08 PM by alealeale » Logged
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Re: Value Betting Questions
« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2019, 08:13:51 PM »

I placed 800 unique live valuebets at bet365 and unibet on big values

Could you describe what kind of value was that?
Thank you.
More than 10% on odd 2.0, on bigger odds even more.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Value Betting Questions
« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2019, 11:07:31 PM »

I was arbing and value betting at those Kambi group bookmakers a couple of years ago. Data is kind of old but I hope it is somewhat useful. They are all pre-match.

Distribution on sports
Sport
# of bets
    ROI (%)
American Football and Rugby
304
-15.3
Baseball
506
16.2
Basket
393
-1.6
Hockey
175
-0.3
Other
153
27.9
Soccer
826
8.6
Tennis
415
-6.7

Performance over time
Year-Q
    2015-3
    2015-4
    2016-1
    2016-2
    2016-3
    2016-4
    2017-1
    2017-2
    2017-3
    2017-4
# of bets
63
81
149
434
156
409
60
192
922
306
Turnover (w$)
1000*
1539
3770
9426
3659
4536
694
2186
20155
6493
Result(w$)
269
-187
172
1690
240
164
205
-65
220
-363
ROI (%)
26.9
-12.1
4.6
17.9
6.6
3.6
29.5
-3.0
1.1
-5.6
*I don't want to publish the proper currency, so the whatever currency (w$) is invented and defined from the turnover in 2015-3 (1000 w$)

In september 2016 I switched from arbing to value betting. In fall 2017 I took many bets with very low odds, so that's why turnover is so high.

I have the strangest experience with the Kambi group bookmakers. I got limited at the beginning of 2017. Then after waiting some months, my limits had suddenly been removed again on several bookmakers from the Kambi group. However, profits were not the same as the golden days of 2016, in fact I was losing money. Maybe the Kambi group have had some groundbreaking improvements in their systems at that time, which affected the limits as well. I haven't thought about it until now.

Could the Kambi group be a sharp reference in some markets?
« Last Edit: November 12, 2019, 11:19:12 PM by VidaBlue » Logged
alealeale
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Re: Value Betting Questions
« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2019, 07:23:19 AM »

Could the Kambi group be a sharp reference in some markets?
Since they allow good amount only on some sports, I bet only on american football, basket and soccer so I don't know about the other ones. I know for sure that among the soft bookies I'm using now (10-12) they are those in which I don't earn costantly.
Another point is that about 50% of my Kambi arbs are against softs.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Value Betting Questions
« Reply #14 on: November 13, 2019, 09:19:42 AM »

Another point is that about 50% of my Kambi arbs are against softs.
I think this calls for some analysis.

I have taken my own bet history and divided that into arbs that have been made against softs and those that have made against sharps (pinn, asians and exchanges). Finally value bets made against sharps.

Type
# of bets
    ROI (%)
Arbs against softs
271
4.9
Arbs against sharps
450
13.5
Value bets against sharps
1932
0.7

Average odds with arbs were 2.41, with value bets 2.00. I stopped arbing in sep 2016, oct 2016 and beyond is all value betting.

There's clearly a difference when comparing arbing vs sharp and arbing vs soft. This is expected. There are clearly a lack of profits once value betting began in oct 2016. All value bets were based on arbs, so there's not much change in EV. I think that one explanation could be a groundbreaking improvement in Kambi's odds setting at that time, as I mentioned above. This could explain some of the other user's failure to profit from these books. Any other explanations and speculations are very welcome.
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