Arbitrage vs Value Betting

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sadedu95
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sadedu95

Arbitrage vs Value Betting
« on: November 11, 2019, 02:55:09 AM »

Would love to see some discourse between members old and new with regards to their opinion on the state of play.

I have been a curious member of the forum for over 5 years now, (crazy how time flies). whilst i cant deny the benefits of value betting. Me myself i am an arbitrage man.

Maybe i am don Carlene in that scene in godfather where he refuses to allow use of his contacts to provide an entry for narcotics.

However i would gladly put my skills against a value bettors heads up, results after 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 1 year.  Fundamentally Value bettors can create value from odds. Arbers can create value from the odds+system. Which in my opinion. (which my be wrong), massively compensates for the value left on the table for arbers.

Evolution is about adapting and i think the strongest strategies are those that incorporate both.

Would love any contribution to this discussion, if not, sorry for wasting peoples time.

All the best and remember Kindness is Cool

 
« Last Edit: November 11, 2019, 03:02:56 AM by sadedu95 » Logged
VidaBlue
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Re: Arbitrage vs Value Betting
« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2019, 08:45:31 AM »

This is a great initiative sadedu95.

I switched from arbing to value after some 5k arbs, where I found that I would have had 50% more profits, if I had just been value betting the soft side. Variance would have been ok also.

But today, when exploring new markets discovering huge arbs, I am often wondering if I should go back to arbing in these cases until I have more data, instead of just guessing which side has value. The choice of value betting in these cases is probably more a habit than a rational decision.

Personally I prefer value, because I think it has made me a better sports bettor. I pay much more attention to the entire process, and constant exposure to wins and losses is great for personal development as well - in arbing it was just bet, forget and all the accounting.

It would be really great to hear a lot of arguments from both sides that we all can learn from.

If we are to compare ourselves on a daily, weekly, monthly and yearly basis, maybe we should think about some kind of framework to do that in. Perhaps someone has an idea of how this could look like?
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Wolfie
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Re: Arbitrage vs Value Betting
« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2019, 09:16:54 AM »

I think arbing is for starting but sooner or later all smart gamblers pass to value betting. They find their own markets where to place bets without coming into radar. You cant do that with arbing. Since almost anyone can arb their bets are in a big pool of accounts and get limited to fast.
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Alfa1234
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Re: Arbitrage vs Value Betting
« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2019, 10:50:29 AM »

Arbing man here, although I do place the occasional value bet that I don't cover.

Arbing has the advantage of being able to place limit bets on everything and a guaranteed ROI with no variance.  Because the average stake is much higher, my profits are higher this way as well.  I track all bets and the "soft" side has an ROI of about 11% long term with flat "to win" stakes.  With a flat stake amount it's roughly the same but much greater variance.  Unfortunately, it's impossible to place a high enough stake on every value bet so I would not be able to achieve the same volumes if I were to substitute my arbing for full value betting and my profits would drop significantly if I were to make the transition completely. 

Both have merits but I tend to think once your bankroll has grown large enough to support huge arbing bets, the absolute profits of value betting would drop compared to arbing as you are unable to place the same amount of money on all value you take and variance would greatly increase (e.g. you can only place 100€ on a Challenger tournament but can place 20k on a Champions league match, the value % could be the same but it would be a bad idea to place that 20k on the CL if you are purely value betting, whilst arbing wise it would maximise profits that way).
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arbusers
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Re: Arbitrage vs Value Betting
« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2019, 11:53:57 AM »

There is no universal answer to the dilemma of arbing or value betting.
This is because everyone operates under different circumstances, has different tools at his/her disposal and different capabilities. There are numerous examples of what I m saying.
We are now observing a stream that became a river and soon it will become a sea. This is value betting.
Pre-game arbing as we remember it is only for (good to have) educational purposes. Live arbing is another story, still extremely profitable, but it comes with a big psychological burden. For me, value betting falls under the KISS principle and allows almost everyone to be active. Arbing became a small club for some years, where only veterans were allowed to profit big while smaller guys were just struggling before they get disappointed and leave for other fields. Now everyone can keep a position in the market, some positions being better than others. Of course, value betting is evolving and it will be a long serial as it happened with arbing, before it transforms into something else.
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sadedu95
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Re: Arbitrage vs Value Betting
« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2019, 11:56:05 PM »

This is a great initiative sadedu95.

I switched from arbing to value after some 5k arbs, where I found that I would have had 50% more profits, if I had just been value betting the soft side. Variance would have been ok also.

But today, when exploring new markets discovering huge arbs, I am often wondering if I should go back to arbing in these cases until I have more data, instead of just guessing which side has value. The choice of value betting in these cases is probably more a habit than a rational decision.

Maybe 3 Arbers and 3 value bettors could upload 5 minute recordings supporting their argument. And the users decide, would be fun

Personally I prefer value, because I think it has made me a better sports bettor. I pay much more attention to the entire process, and constant exposure to wins and losses is great for personal development as well - in arbing it was just bet, forget and all the accounting.

It would be really great to hear a lot of arguments from both sides that we all can learn from.

If we are to compare ourselves on a daily, weekly, monthly and yearly basis, maybe we should think about some kind of framework to do that in. Perhaps someone has an idea of how this could look like?


I do see your point about it being just a bet. However that is if you are a casual arber. But to have an understanding of different sports. different markets in each, times that these markets become active added with detailed knowledge about clones (not just sites,) means an arbers knowledge is continually evolving. However as you go on to say in your next paragraph and as arbusers states. There is no one size fits all policy when it comes to this subject.

Alafa1234, great too hear from an arber in this community, it is getting lonely. But i think you hit on a very interesting point arbing lets you attack the market on an individual basis with far great accuracy then value betting. Where as value betting is a long run game, and all the issues associated with it. Arbers can guarantee you a profit today where as value bettors can guarantee profit in the long run should all things remain equal,

One further point if you had extensive knowledge about value betting or arbitrage and you could meet one of two people.

1. Value bettor with extensive knowledge
2. Arber with extensive knowledge

which would you choose? This is rather a leading question, but i think any optimal strategy would include a mixture of both. Being open minded is critical in an ever changing world. I personally believe there are huge synergies between the two. I am as arber as they come but i know i need to explore value betting in a meaningful manner rather than being a passive beneficiary. However who i am is who i am, but that does not mean i cant change and evolve my understanding. After all i think existing in the unknown is the secret source of life. 

With regards to comparisons turnover and %profit would probably be a good start. But as i said with arbing there are many more ways you can milk the system. For example factoring middles, rebates, free bets. odds boost, accumulators etc. I would love some oxford style type debate about this.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2019, 03:02:58 AM by sadedu95 » Logged
VidaBlue
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Re: Arbitrage vs Value Betting
« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2019, 09:43:35 AM »

This is rather a leading question, but i think any optimal strategy would include a mixture of both. Being open minded is critical in an ever changing world. I personally believe there are huge synergies between the two.
I share your belief. Having various value betting portofolios with different approaches is normal, so having simultaneous projects including both arbing and value, could be normal also. The knowledge you are mentioning such as clones, time that markets become active, is required knowledge for both methods. Had I had the betting knowledge I have today, my arbing would have been better back then also.

One common argument from arbers is that since variance is non-existent, then stakes can be raised when not having to worry about bank roll management. The counter argument is that the bank roll can become so large that higher stakes are never restricted by the stake strategy, it is always restricted by how much you are able to bet.

I look towards some of the most succesfull sport betting millionaires, and they all seem to have employed strategies that a more similar to value betting than to arbing.

However, I find myself currently on a daily basis, with arbs from unpublished odds where I have been value betting by guessing which side is the soft one, based on experiences from the other portofolios. I have probably been wrong in many cases, so now I consider arbing those markets until I have substantial data to base value betting upon.

@alfa1234: It is surprising to hear that you are arbing. I remember that we were sharing our value betting methods here in the forum a couple of years ago and I had the impression that you were mostly value betting. If that was the case, what are the reasons you went back to arbing?
« Last Edit: November 12, 2019, 09:45:27 AM by VidaBlue » Logged
Alfa1234
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Re: Arbitrage vs Value Betting
« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2019, 10:03:07 AM »

This is rather a leading question, but i think any optimal strategy would include a mixture of both. Being open minded is critical in an ever changing world. I personally believe there are huge synergies between the two.


One common argument from arbers is that since variance is non-existent, then stakes can be raised when not having to worry about bank roll management. The counter argument is that the bank roll can become so large that higher stakes are never restricted by the stake strategy, it is always restricted by how much you are able to bet.

@alfa1234: It is surprising to hear that you are arbing. I remember that we were sharing our value betting methods here in the forum a couple of years ago and I had the impression that you were mostly value betting. If that was the case, what are the reasons you went back to arbing?

I was always mostly arbing.  As mentioned above and in your own reply, once your bank roll is large enough the arbing profits are (at least in my case) superior to value betting profits as your volume grows.  25 limit bets for value betting can equal the profit of 1 huge champions league or premier league arb.  Value betting is much more restricted once you reach the limit bet size for many markets and you can't just place 10x your standard bet on the bigger markets as it would obviously be very detrimental to the overall strategy if you were to place much higher stakes on a small number of bets.

On top of that I like the steady income without variance, but that's personal.

That doesn't mean I won't place some value bets as well but I'm very selective about them.
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sadedu95
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Re: Arbitrage vs Value Betting
« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2019, 07:44:05 PM »

I share your belief. Having various value betting portofolios with different approaches is normal, so having simultaneous projects including both arbing and value, could be normal also. The knowledge you are mentioning such as clones, time that markets become active, is required knowledge for both methods. Had I had the betting knowledge I have today, my arbing would have been better back then also.

Whilst there is cross over knowledge between the 2. I believe the way you exploit the opportunity leads to 2 completely different philosophies of exploitation. I think when starting out in the game you need to choose one approach (that may be my bias) but as time develops there is no reason why you should not explore the other side which ever your perspective.

However, I find myself currently on a daily basis, with arbs from unpublished odds where I have been value betting by guessing which side is the soft one, based on experiences from the other portofolios. I have probably been wrong in many cases, so now I consider arbing those markets until I have substantial data to base value betting upon.


i believe you hit on a crucial point here not and not to get repetitive. Extensive knowledge of both fields allows you to create multiple strategies to exploit opportunities within the market.

Its quite funny listening to you and Alfa1234 its clear you guys have developed substantial knowledge with regards to value betting. Heads up as arbers. i dont know if i would win (if that is even possible) but i know for sure i would compete.

However with regards to valuebetting you guys would both wipe the floor with me. I guess part of the reason of why i started this thread is deep down i know i have to open up to value betting and start my journey of understanding. Which means having to put myself in a completely different headspace that i have grown accustom to.

From the responses its clear to see as with most things in life there is no clear black or white answer. What works for you works for you, but you can always and should learn from other peoples experiences. Forget risk free arbs these are risk free lessons. Thank you guys for sharing and helping me feel reassured.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2019, 07:50:19 PM by sadedu95 » Logged
deivi_747
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Re: Arbitrage vs Value Betting
« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2019, 02:16:13 PM »

It is incredible the importance of joining both, I think that's what it is. But the experience is what really makes you see the bets from another point of view. The arbing is the first stage that starts you in the business, then comes the second stage when you take the advantages and more portions of the cake. 8)
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