Could you explain this?

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Balcanbettor
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Balcanbettor

Could you explain this?
« on: November 12, 2019, 01:08:38 AM »

Im putting this under the value betting topics because i consider it is... So let me explane my situation here :

I was a long time bettor at local shops and online searching for value every day and there was a lot, especialy at local shops in my country.. but then taxes came ( 15% for each winning ticket...) and destroyed everything . So what i started doing (illegaly :( ) is that i gathered a few very big local players, pure gamblers , they do lots of betting and almost all of them have no idea what they are doing so i am constantly winning by taking their bets . Now the problem is that the biggest player that i have is strangely a constant winner , guys i've tried everything ... i even lower the odds that are offered on bet365 and he still manages to get winnings each week , this is happening almost 9 out of 10 weeks, and in the 1 that i get to win its usualy a very small win. Now what you probably all would wonder is what are his bets?? I never let him bet on a match that isnt offered by pinacle and bet365 at the same time and when. He sometimes bets single, double or tribets. He doesnt have any i mean ANY bankroll managment  , he bets 4000 euro on a double with total odds provided by bet365 lets say 1.40 i offer him 1.35 and then he also bets 200euro on the double plus one match that would make lets say 1.80 ... so he definitly have no idea of how to manage his bankroll. I can say that he also is impulsive player and almost always runs to get his losses back by putting HUGE bets .

I dont have the total betting data saved so i can  not provide it but ill say what his last weekend bets were.

Trnava - Pohronie  1x  (0:2 - 3 2)
Renova - Akademija pandev 1x (0 1 - 1 1 ..)

Could have cover the bets both of them on almost every bookie.. huge limits on pinacle on them.. The odds that i offered was 1.46 and the total odds that i had at that time were 1.72

Ararat - Yerevan 1  ( 7:2)
CEltic - Motherwell 1 ( 2:0)
Olympiacos - Atromitos 1  (2:0)
 i offered him 1.4 while the odds i had were over 1.45
He also did a few bets with these games on doubles  and adding LUDOGORETS and PARTIZAn.. plus he did a HUGE bet on olimpijacos SINGLE...

I am just givving you examples of what kind of bets he does , he also bets on the Top leagues also.. and whenever he adds some suspicious game like lets say Cyprus 2nd league or something like with lets say Olympiakos at 1.20  i just give him 1.25 max no matter what the cyprus game odds are and he accepts it... and what is even stranger he sometimes loses exactly on those games...  And after all he manage to be winner each week , he bets almost every day 3 4 5 tickets... If he bets lets say Man city - Southampton 1  , then city started to lose.. he would do some bet like over 1.5 goals at 60th minute on odds 1.18.. or something even more pathetic.... Just unexplanable bets that manage to bring him money...

In your opinion is this just bad luck for me or is there something that i dont see here ??  I am sorry if i weren't very clear on my post guys .Cheers
« Last Edit: November 12, 2019, 08:52:21 AM by arbusers » Logged
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Re: Can you explane this ???
« Reply #1 on: November 12, 2019, 02:10:03 AM »

Hello there,
I believe your mistake is that you don't keep tracks/data of your clients betting history. It would help you find out if you are unlucky and also see their betting patterns plus what motivates this specific client to place the specific bets on that specific time. I don't think there is someone who can tell you that you've been unlucky or he is abusing you, since there are not enough data from your side.
Good luck with this!
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jagas
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jagas

Re: Can you explane this ???
« Reply #2 on: November 12, 2019, 08:47:40 AM »

But why dont you find another country to cover his bets in, that way you wont be worried about what he does. They pay you, you pay him and take the percentage off.
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arbusers
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arbusers

Re: Could you explain this?
« Reply #3 on: November 12, 2019, 09:03:23 AM »

I had to correct the spelling of the title.

You became an unofficial bookmaker for these guys.
Of course, you should keep the data and details of the betting behavior of your clients. This is what every bookmaker is doing, just read the forum.
Of course, there is bankroll management even if it is not evident to you. You shouldn't try to interpret his bankroll management under a value betting or arbing prism, because probably the guy is not arbing, nor value betting.
I see 2 possible ways to operate with your smart bettor.
1. Copy his bets and place them for your self.
2. If you don't feel safe taking the risk to copy his bets, place them on his behalf in the highest possible odds, and offer him lower odds. Like this, you keep the difference, and if he wins, you both win.
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Wolfie
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Re: Could you explain this?
« Reply #4 on: November 12, 2019, 09:34:07 AM »

The question is are your odds more profitable to him than making a bet in shop minus tax ? If yes and if he has made more than 500 bets surely he is smart gambler and i would copy his bets if i were in your shoes.
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Alfa1234
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Re: Could you explain this?
« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2019, 10:06:11 AM »

I see 2 possible ways to operate with your smart bettor.
1. Copy his bets and place them for your self.
2. If you don't feel safe taking the risk to copy his bets, place them on his behalf in the highest possible odds, and offer him lower odds. Like this, you keep the difference, and if he wins, you both win.

This.  Identify your winning clients and lay off their action.
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Balcanbettor
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Balcanbettor

Re: Could you explain this?
« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2019, 11:16:13 AM »

Ofcourse i have where to cover the bets i have accounts at all asians and even soft books with big limits (bet365, marathonbet etc...). My problem is that i lost too much from that particular player and i want to recognize if this is just some crazy winning streak or insider informations.  matter
The question is are your odds more profitable to him than making a bet in shop minus tax ? If yes and if he has made more than 500 bets surely he is smart gambler and i would copy his bets if i were in your shoes.
.
The odds from the local shops doesnt really matter because i offer odds from bet365 or pinnacle but 10-15% lower.

I do have the conversation with him so i supose i should write down all bettinh history post it here and see if there is something i am not seeing. Anyway thanks for all your replys
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: Could you explain this?
« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2019, 11:23:39 AM »


The odds from the local shops doesnt really matter because i offer odds from bet365 or pinnacle but 10-15% lower.


It matters because if he is sharp than there is a reason why he is betting at you and not in pinny or bet365.
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jagas
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Re: Could you explain this?
« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2019, 01:08:00 PM »


The odds from the local shops doesnt really matter because i offer odds from bet365 or pinnacle but 10-15% lower.


It matters because if he is sharp than there is a reason why he is betting at you and not in pinny or bet365.


exactly, he wont be that stupid to not know about Asians and bet365
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VidaBlue
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Re: Could you explain this?
« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2019, 01:31:17 PM »

Thank you for sharing Balcanbettor.

Being sharp and accepting odds 10-15% lower than pinn and bet365 in competitive markets such as premier league and Scotland premiership are really contradictory statements. Something seems odd. Hope that you get a clearer picture over the next weeks.

How is the attitude of this bettor? Someone who is bragging about the achievement, someone quiet who seemingly refers to himself as lucky instead of skilled? Do the other bettors talk to him? If he is winning and if he is confident that it is because he has a winning system, he would probably do whatever possible to go on unnoticed.

Please update us when you have any new observations.
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Balcanbettor
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Balcanbettor

Re: Could you explain this?
« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2019, 02:48:46 PM »


The odds from the local shops doesnt really matter because i offer odds from bet365 or pinnacle but 10-15% lower.


It matters because if he is sharp than there is a reason why he is betting at you and not in pinny or bet365.


exactly, he wont be that stupid to not know about Asians and bet365

He actualy have no idea how to do online betting at all.. He does bets at local shops probably his whole life because if he knows these things why would he need me 🤔. He is around 40yrs family man and he doesnt want to bother with taxes, bank withdrawals etc. I can say that he was a litle bit promotive to himself a few years ago but not too much... He is reffering as a Pro to himself ofcourse.
He had a bad streak when he started (2017 june july..) in the first 2 weeks he lost a huge amount with bets on some champions league qualifications.. He did a huge bet on France louxembourg (0:0)..  And this year he did a huge bet on Ajax - herenven  home win (4:4).. He did bet amounts like 40 50 60k euro singles on odds 1.05, and he still managed to return all and finish as winner.

I will start posting week by week all his bets so hope that i help you all somehow, or maybe you willl show me something i dont see..
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djordjeno
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djordjeno

Re: Could you explain this?
« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2019, 03:13:39 PM »

Ima srece :)

Maybe he is just lucky.

Please for precise betting history use excel or google spreadsheets.

Thanks for sharing this story.
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: Could you explain this?
« Reply #12 on: November 12, 2019, 03:14:31 PM »


I will start posting week by week all his bets so hope that i help you all somehow, or maybe you willl show me something i dont see..

That would be best. Someone here may have the same style and identify it.
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