The Perfect Time To Place Bets

Pages: [1]
Author Topic: The Perfect Time To Place Bets  (Read 1315 times)
Phoenixking
Guest


Email

Phoenixking

The Perfect Time To Place Bets
« on: November 23, 2019, 10:13:24 AM »

Hi guys, as the title says, What is the perfect timing to place a bet ?
For example : Leg 1 has odds placed around 2.80 at soft and 2.70 at sharp, 6 hours prior to the match. Will you take this edge or wait until the sharp further move the lines based on weight of money in the 6 hour time frame, and potentially lose the edge from the soft cause they have more time to adjust.

I usually place my bets at least 6 hours prior to the match,The closing lines are much better indication of true odds off course. My win rate tanks if I place bets say 8 or 12 hours before match. What are your thoughts ?       
Logged
albytro4
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 2
Posts: 8


View Profile

albytro4

Re: The Perfect Time To Place Bets
« Reply #1 on: November 23, 2019, 06:29:18 PM »

There are several ways to determine what you're asking, but in the end whatever the time before the match you bet, the odds can swing anyway.
What you can do is to determine what strategy brings you the best closing odds.
Logged
Phoenixking
Guest


Email

Phoenixking

Re: The Perfect Time To Place Bets
« Reply #2 on: November 23, 2019, 08:06:46 PM »

There are several ways to determine what you're asking, but in the end whatever the time before the match you bet, the odds can swing anyway.
What you can do is to determine what strategy brings you the best closing odds.

Most of my losing streaks are associated with betting 12 hours prior the match, I mainly bet on euro leagues, and I'm from asia, any matches in the american continent is very hard for me. If I follow the 6 hour rule, I had to be awake at 3.AM for USA.Not very fun.
Logged
albytro4
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 2
Posts: 8


View Profile

albytro4

Re: The Perfect Time To Place Bets
« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2019, 12:14:21 PM »

You should try to lower the time before match start of your bets, I would go for max 6 hours, but most of the times 4h
Logged
Phoenixking
Guest


Email

Phoenixking

Re: The Perfect Time To Place Bets
« Reply #4 on: November 24, 2019, 06:12:59 PM »

You should try to lower the time before match start of your bets, I would go for max 6 hours, but most of the times 4h
Makes sense man, Thx for the reply. :)
Logged
VidaBlue
Has experience
**

Karma: 42
Posts: 183


View Profile

VidaBlue

Re: The Perfect Time To Place Bets
« Reply #5 on: November 24, 2019, 11:39:45 PM »

What is the perfect timing to place a bet ?

It is an essential topic and it has been discussed before in this forum and probably will be again.

It has no finite answer. A market closer to match start has higher liquidity and odds are closer to the reality, the true odds. A market long before match start has more inaccurate odds, but that also leads to the possibility for better bargains, since overvalued odds have not been corrected yet. So it really is a kind of paradox. I took my own data for offline betting since start 2017:

Time before match start     ROI (number of bets)
Above 48 hours
9.51% (809)
24-48 hours
16.95% (760)
12-24 hours
3.57% (767)
6-12hours
4.88% (822)
2-6 hours
3.37% (1157)
1-2 hours
4.37% (383)
0-1 hours
12.97% (476)

So it seems that stats are best for betting more than 24 hours to match start and below 1 hour.

These are my thoughts for the type of betting I do at the bookmakers I use:

The high ROI when betting more than 24 hours before, is due to those very overvalued opening odds that wouldn't survive long closer to game start. Many sharps only enter the markets past the 24 hour mark and much value betting software operates on games up to 24 hours to game start, so that's typically where the overvalued odds will get on the move.

24-1 hours is a period of speculation with lots of opinions.

The high ROI very close to game start, is based upon the high volume of factual game changing information during this period, courtsider observations, lineups, field condition, etc. which causes abrupt odds changes and good value opportunities for those who act quickly.

It would be nice to compare this with other users' stats, so please comment, discuss and criticize based on your own experience and theories.
Logged
cocahontas
Guest


Email

cocahontas

Re: The Perfect Time To Place Bets
« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2019, 01:09:31 AM »

You should try to lower the time before match start of your bets, I would go for max 6 hours, but most of the times 4h
Makes sense man, Thx for the reply. :)

Hello,
good idea. Do you have some arguments or your own stats for prooving this? Thank you

Is it better to play every value 0-99hours before match or just only 0-6 hours before kick off?
Logged
mita8888
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 0
Posts: 22


View Profile

mita8888

Re: The Perfect Time To Place Bets
« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2019, 02:32:26 AM »

What is the perfect timing to place a bet ?

It is an essential topic and it has been discussed before in this forum and probably will be again.

It has no finite answer. A market closer to match start has higher liquidity and odds are closer to the reality, the true odds. A market long before match start has more inaccurate odds, but that also leads to the possibility for better bargains, since overvalued odds have not been corrected yet. So it really is a kind of paradox. I took my own data for offline betting since start 2017:

Time before match start     ROI (number of bets)
Above 48 hours
9.51% (809)
24-48 hours
16.95% (760)
12-24 hours
3.57% (767)
6-12hours
4.88% (822)
2-6 hours
3.37% (1157)
1-2 hours
4.37% (383)
0-1 hours
12.97% (476)

So it seems that stats are best for betting more than 24 hours to match start and below 1 hour.

These are my thoughts for the type of betting I do at the bookmakers I use:

The high ROI when betting more than 24 hours before, is due to those very overvalued opening odds that wouldn't survive long closer to game start. Many sharps only enter the markets past the 24 hour mark and much value betting software operates on games up to 24 hours to game start, so that's typically where the overvalued odds will get on the move.

24-1 hours is a period of speculation with lots of opinions.

The high ROI very close to game start, is based upon the high volume of factual game changing information during this period, courtsider observations, lineups, field condition, etc. which causes abrupt odds changes and good value opportunities for those who act quickly.

It would be nice to compare this with other users' stats, so please comment, discuss and criticize based on your own experience and theories.

thank you for this data. very appreciate
Logged
Rustler
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 3
Posts: 11


View Profile

Rustler

Re: The Perfect Time To Place Bets
« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2019, 03:46:48 AM »

I'd suggest you to start with 6-24 hours but that's not a rule in general, you may find value bets on specific markets even on live. So you can only be sure when you have some data in your hands collected from your bets or from another user who have already been in this situation.
Logged
Phoenixking
Guest


Email

Phoenixking

Re: The Perfect Time To Place Bets
« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2019, 12:28:54 PM »

Thank you very much for the suggestions guys, especially vidablue for the most amazing analytical data. I'm still a bit conflicted about the time. The best thing I can do now is make note of the timings when I place the bets and compare it with ROI. This should provide some proper analytical data based on my play style. Cause what works for some might not work for others depending on play style.

@Vidablue, Bro can you please point me to those threads where this topic has been already discussed ? I searched a bit before posting this thread. Thx man.
Logged
VidaBlue
Has experience
**

Karma: 42
Posts: 183


View Profile

VidaBlue

Re: The Perfect Time To Place Bets
« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2019, 03:21:13 PM »

@Vidablue, Bro can you please point me to those threads where this topic has been already discussed ? I searched a bit before posting this thread. Thx man.

Sure. I remember we discussed it in this thread: https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=6101.0

It is great when users reopen these essential discussion concepts - so don't be reluctant to repost something that has been discussed before, as it is very important to continuously review these topics. And look what I wrote one year ago:

I have a sensation (yes, just a sensation) that my early bets have much higher ROI than my late bets close to game start.

It is kind of funny to compare that sensation with actual data  ;D
« Last Edit: November 25, 2019, 03:23:58 PM by VidaBlue » Logged
Phoenixking
Guest


Email

Phoenixking

Re: The Perfect Time To Place Bets
« Reply #11 on: November 26, 2019, 11:41:22 AM »

@Vidablue, Bro can you please point me to those threads where this topic has been already discussed ? I searched a bit before posting this thread. Thx man.

Sure. I remember we discussed it in this thread: https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=6101.0

It is great when users reopen these essential discussion concepts - so don't be reluctant to repost something that has been discussed before, as it is very important to continuously review these topics. And look what I wrote one year ago:

I have a sensation (yes, just a sensation) that my early bets have much higher ROI than my late bets close to game start.

It is kind of funny to compare that sensation with actual data  ;D
Thanks man, I have decided to place my bets 20 min before the match, To think about it, consider sharps increasing and decreasing the line based on lot of opinions like you said, and the aggregation of all these opinions provides the true odds. Hence I thinks its the best. I will try two methods before 24 hours and before 20 min, Lets see how the results turn out. On road to earn my first $1000 from gambling,took  me lot of time and effort off course, Python and automation have greatly increased my value bet numbers.   
« Last Edit: November 27, 2019, 06:09:40 AM by Phoenixking » Logged
Pages: [1]
Print