Value Bets Scanner

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Rustler
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Value Bets Scanner
« on: November 24, 2019, 04:29:55 AM »

Hello guys! I opened this thread to discuss about the value bet scanners and the reasons why we use them. I think it's a nice idea to keep everyone updated.
I use betburger as my main scanner, and i am value betting on bet365 vs pinnacle, betfair, matchbook, sbobet, betdaq, smarkets, 188bet, dafabet to gather data for now (I am not using betburger value bets, but their prematch arbs instead). Then i am planning to filter all the data i will collect and build my own scanner which will mostly target the markets i chose.
What do you think about my plan? What do you use for your own value bets?
« Last Edit: November 25, 2019, 03:41:08 AM by Rustler » Logged
esi
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esi

Re: Value Bets Scanner
« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2019, 11:42:01 AM »

out of curosity why do you use the arbs instread of value bets?
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Rustler
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Re: Value Bets Scanner
« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2019, 01:34:24 PM »

out of curosity why do you use the arbs instread of value bets?

Because in theory every arb is a value bet, since one odd shouldn't be too high. Plus I believe I can gather much more data this way and then filter out my own value bets and specific markets.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Value Bets Scanner
« Reply #3 on: November 24, 2019, 11:53:39 PM »

out of curosity why do you use the arbs instread of value bets?

Because in theory every arb is a value bet, since one odd shouldn't be too high. Plus I believe I can gather much more data this way and then filter out my own value bets and specific markets.
I think you are spot on.

Most value betting software apply very overall simple value assumptions, and eventually this will be relayed to bots. So the sport bettor's answer in this competition is to apply some sophisticated filtering. Also, betting on a small value bet which would have been a negative arb, combined with the constant underlying uncertainty of who is sharp and who isn't, may in theory lead to long term negative profits. Better to focus on high value, positive arbs.
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Rustler
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Re: Value Bets Scanner
« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2019, 03:40:31 AM »

out of curosity why do you use the arbs instread of value bets?

Because in theory every arb is a value bet, since one odd shouldn't be too high. Plus I believe I can gather much more data this way and then filter out my own value bets and specific markets.
I think you are spot on.

Most value betting software apply very overall simple value assumptions, and eventually this will be relayed to bots. So the sport bettor's answer in this competition is to apply some sophisticated filtering. Also, betting on a small value bet which would have been a negative arb, combined with the constant underlying uncertainty of who is sharp and who isn't, may in theory lead to long term negative profits. Better to focus on high value, positive arbs.

Well I use only positive arbs of at least 0.50% and I am gathering data to figure out who is sharp and who is not in every market I bet on long term. I was thinking of increasing my minimum % to something like 1% but I think it's more wise to let my upcoming data show if it's the right move or not, unless some more experienced guys tried that already and failed long term. Also keep in mind that I bet on bet365 vs pinnacle, betfair, matchbook, sbobet, betdaq, smarkets, 188bet, dafabet (for now) considering that bet365 will be the soft in most markets.
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mita8888
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mita8888

Re: Value Bets Scanner
« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2019, 05:58:58 AM »

out of curosity why do you use the arbs instread of value bets?

Because in theory every arb is a value bet, since one odd shouldn't be too high. Plus I believe I can gather much more data this way and then filter out my own value bets and specific markets.
I think you are spot on.

Most value betting software apply very overall simple value assumptions, and eventually this will be relayed to bots. So the sport bettor's answer in this competition is to apply some sophisticated filtering. Also, betting on a small value bet which would have been a negative arb, combined with the constant underlying uncertainty of who is sharp and who isn't, may in theory lead to long term negative profits. Better to focus on high value, positive arbs.

Well I use only positive arbs of at least 0.50% and I am gathering data to figure out who is sharp and who is not in every market I bet on long term. I was thinking of increasing my minimum % to something like 1% but I think it's more wise to let my upcoming data show if it's the right move or not, unless some more experienced guys tried that already and failed long term. Also keep in mind that I bet on bet365 vs pinnacle, betfair, matchbook, sbobet, betdaq, smarkets, 188bet, dafabet (for now) considering that bet365 will be the soft in most markets.

How much index value are you using right now?
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Rustler
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Re: Value Bets Scanner
« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2019, 03:25:29 PM »

How much index value are you using right now?

What index value means? Thank you for your reply!
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barnstorm
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Re: Value Bets Scanner
« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2019, 04:16:36 PM »

i am value betting on bet365 vs pinnacle, betfair, matchbook, sbobet, betdaq, smarkets, 188bet, dafabet to gather data for now (I am not using betburger value bets, but their prematch arbs instead). Then i am planning to filter all the data i will collect and build my own scanner which will mostly target the markets i chose.
What do you think about my plan? What do you use for your own value bets?

Have you had some bets invalidated by bet365? I was using Bovada for soft lines until they started to invalidate bets after the event! And I was arbing a fair amount so it really hurt. I think more and more books are going to do that to discourage arbers and value bettors. They know which ones they got caught on, so they can just claim their line was a mistake. In my case, it was not a mistake, as they had even made numerous changes to the line but it was still a good arb and good value bet. When I won, they said it was a mistake, and aI was left with the losing side. Even if they started doing this with value bets, it would really cut into your profit.
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Rustler
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Re: Value Bets Scanner
« Reply #8 on: November 26, 2019, 04:23:10 AM »

Yeah i have this issue sometimes but its very rare and they refund my money so i may lose a value bet but i do not lose money.
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