LIVE match value betting

Pages: [1]
Author Topic: LIVE match value betting  (Read 1860 times)
mita8888
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 0
Posts: 26


View Profile

mita8888

LIVE match value betting
« on: November 25, 2019, 05:56:02 AM »

Hello.. currently i am value betting using rebel, my stats are as follows:

Total bets: 3753
TO: $107.496

My best yield is near 10% at one moment
Today’s yield is about 5%, reaching down to my theoretical Ev 3.9% (ev vs place bet, not pinnacle closing)

I may post this in detail if anybody interested

Value betting get me more interesting day by day. So i thought i want to expand and prepare larger bankroll to bet

I need an opinion about LIVE match value betting, since i still have no data,
how much expected bet per week? I can bet 1000+ per month prematch
Does live match value bet yield higher result? (We beat the live odds, there is no pinnacle closing line, the line we bet at that moment is the closing line at that time)

I also have a project to do valuebet on SBO. Only get 100-200bet at the moment
Luckily i live in asia, so i can bet on SBO via agent that give me fix maxbet per match, each agent is different , but maxbet is fix (ex:$200 per match)

Thanks for any kind of suggestion or idea

Ps: my bankroll is about $8000
Logged
kustef
Pro
****

Karma: 15
Posts: 318


View Profile

kustef

Re: LIVE match value betting
« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2019, 05:31:50 PM »

Yes go live its more interesting like pre-match.
You must learn to recognize type of drops at live betting.
1. standarnd drop based on statistics or something happening in match (danger free kick, player injured and no more possibility to substitute etc)
2. match fixing drop and here you need to stake as much as possible .. these bets are really big valuebets after few minutes if you catch them very fast. For example you catch odds 1.8 and later after 10 minutes there is odd 1.5 or lower ..

Not every day can be profitable. I had days where i lost 2000 eur, but overally i have very high ROI 20% and flat ROI 8%  (this because i have bigger stakes on match fixing drops). Iam using local bookmakers.
Logged
mita8888
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 0
Posts: 26


View Profile

mita8888

Re: LIVE match value betting
« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2019, 05:50:44 PM »

Yes go live its more interesting like pre-match.
You must learn to recognize type of drops at live betting.
1. standarnd drop based on statistics or something happening in match (danger free kick, player injured and no more possibility to substitute etc)
2. match fixing drop and here you need to stake as much as possible .. these bets are really big valuebets after few minutes if you catch them very fast. For example you catch odds 1.8 and later after 10 minutes there is odd 1.5 or lower ..

Not every day can be profitable. I had days where i lost 2000 eur, but overally i have very high ROI 20% and flat ROI 8%  (this because i have bigger stakes on match fixing drops). Iam using local bookmakers.

Could you explain more about match fixing drops?
Logged
kustef
Pro
****

Karma: 15
Posts: 318


View Profile

kustef

Re: LIVE match value betting
« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2019, 06:00:56 PM »

If there is big drop of odds starting usually from 1st minute of the match (can be later too) and there is no reason for it (any shots on target etc) we could say something strange is happening ..  For example. Match start with odds 1.9 on over 2.5 after 15 minutes there is odd 1.6 but any shots on target any shots on target, so no reason why odds dropping on over.. This indicate a lot of money placed on over 2.5 ..  In this case local bookmakers dont getting stakes on that event like asian bookmakers so they dont have reason to short odds and after 15 minutes you can find much bigger odds at local bookmaker compare to 1.6 at asian bookmaker
Logged
mita8888
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 0
Posts: 26


View Profile

mita8888

Re: LIVE match value betting
« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2019, 07:05:06 PM »

If there is big drop of odds starting usually from 1st minute of the match (can be later too) and there is no reason for it (any shots on target etc) we could say something strange is happening ..  For example. Match start with odds 1.9 on over 2.5 after 15 minutes there is odd 1.6 but any shots on target any shots on target, so no reason why odds dropping on over.. This indicate a lot of money placed on over 2.5 ..  In this case local bookmakers dont getting stakes on that event like asian bookmakers so they dont have reason to short odds and after 15 minutes you can find much bigger odds at local bookmaker compare to 1.6 at asian bookmaker

So the match are mote likely to going over, right?

MAy i know which softs are you betting on? I just ever try bet365 but only 1 day betburger subscription on weekend
« Last Edit: November 25, 2019, 08:38:15 PM by mita8888 » Logged
kustef
Pro
****

Karma: 15
Posts: 318


View Profile

kustef

Re: LIVE match value betting
« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2019, 12:34:06 PM »

usually are fixed bets on goals and favourite handicaps.. you need to find soft (local) bookmakers for yourself, cant tell you more
Logged
mita8888
Gaining experience
*

Karma: 0
Posts: 26


View Profile

mita8888

Re: LIVE match value betting
« Reply #6 on: November 26, 2019, 04:21:34 PM »

thank you for your valuable information
may i know how did you compare live odds between sharp and your locals? if you are not using software, do you compare manually side by side per game?
Logged
kustef
Pro
****

Karma: 15
Posts: 318


View Profile

kustef

Re: LIVE match value betting
« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2019, 11:25:23 AM »

betburger and arbmate
Logged
Pages: [1]
Print