Understanding odds movements at asians

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VidaBlue
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VidaBlue

Understanding odds movements at asians
« on: December 02, 2019, 01:36:28 PM »

I have trouble understanding the behaviour of some of the odds movements. I will explain with the following example:

Today I placed a value bet close to the limit at a lower league hockey match at an asian bookmaker (pinnacle). What I saw today, and numerous times before that, is the following sequence (explained with real odds values):

1. Stable odds 2.00 for hours
2. I place a bet at odds 2.00 close to betting limit
3. Odds immediately drop to 1.83
4. After approximately 30 seconds odds jump back to 2.00
5. After another 10 seconds odds drop to 1.83 again
6. Odds are now stable at 1.83 for hours

Obviously there's no betting going on before and after the occurence (step 1 and 6). Step 2 and 3 seems logical to what you expect from an asian line.

I am just wondering what is going on at step 4 and step 5. Is step 4 an arbitrage bot / human? If it is, why do the value most often jump back to exactly the same as it was before which would be difficult to know? - an asian line moves proportional to the stake, doesn't it? Why does it stay at the temporary level (2.00) for a very short 10 seconds. Did a system detect it was value and made a bet to back this? Or is it all just internal system response at pinnacle without any betting at all?

I am quite puzzled and would like to get wiser on the subject. Does anyone have a suggestion to how to explain this behaviour?
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Alfa1234
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Re: Understanding odds movements at asians
« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2019, 02:13:45 PM »

The odd can be moved back by a human if the algo moves it after a max bet.  Listen to some Pinnacle podcasts and it could give you some insight.

Basically, I believe the algo is sophisticated enough to let the odd low for a bit because some people bet another time immediately after a limit bet.  Pinnacle leaves the low odd there for a bit and only then moves it back, hoping they get a 2nd bet at the lower odd.  If that doesn't happen, they drop the odd.  I've noticed this quite often.  Human element can be they simply put it back and leave it where it was, because they are taking a position themselves.
« Last Edit: December 02, 2019, 02:33:00 PM by Alfa1234 » Logged
arbusers
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Re: Understanding odds movements at asians
« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2019, 03:19:18 PM »

I wonder, if you try to place a bet after step 4 and within the 10 secs interval, will they accept the bet? I can only assume they will change the odds immediately and your bet will not be accepted at odds 2.00.
Markets with bigger liquidity should behave differently.
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kustef
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Re: Understanding odds movements at asians
« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2019, 05:04:58 PM »

If you know Mollybet for example you can put offer for higher odds than now available and when odds reach your asked price system automaticly place your bets.. this could be 1 from many reason of that odds drop
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Wolfie
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Re: Understanding odds movements at asians
« Reply #4 on: December 03, 2019, 09:23:37 AM »

It seems someone matched your bet on the other side. Than someone else tried to get value just like you. Most probably they refused that bet and got confident that this is true odds.
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pythonic
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Re: Understanding odds movements at asians
« Reply #5 on: December 03, 2019, 10:08:58 AM »

It would be interesting to see the odds on the other outcomes as well. Did they simultaneously go up at step 3?

4 looks like human intervention indeed. Maybe they want to take position, or maybe they just want to test if the odds could still be sustained at 2.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Understanding odds movements at asians
« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2019, 08:50:29 AM »

Thank you all for your responses, it is much appreciated. I have only seen the pattern on the moneyline in low liquidity markets long before game start. At the same match, I later tried to place a bet on the O/U market, also close to limit, but that did only cause a drop and nothing else (step 1-3). I will look for the next match where this could occur and then, as arbusers suggested, I could try to place a second bet after step 4, after the odd has risen, to see if I am allowed to (or if I am able to in such a short time).

I am not sure if the odds on the other outcomes moved as well as I do not have access to the odds history anymore, but as far as I remember, the handicap-markets will move also, because they are bound to the moneyline in pinnacle's systems.

I believe it could be human intervention. The reason why I find this case so interesting is that I have often thought about backing other player's valuebets by automatic monitoring of the odds patterns. Maybe such an invention is already the reason for this pattern.

I will keep you informed in this thread the next time I bet and see such a pattern.
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mita8888
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mita8888

Re: Understanding odds movements at asians
« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2019, 02:13:05 PM »

when i place a value bet (especially a big edge recorded from my scanner), i often check oddsportal to compare the odds.
I also see something strange, i cannot post image so i will try to write down the odds history

23.44 = 1.90 (opening)
23:46 = 1.91
06:03 = 1.97
07:29 = 1.95
09:01 = 1.84
09:07 = 1.77 <- value bet occur from my scanner, I place bet on soft side
09:34 = 1.79
09:40 = 1.95
10:01 = 2.04
10:12 = 2.07 <- its far above my placed odds.

I dont remember the exact time before match start, but i am sure its more than 2-3 hours before kick-off
I often see this kind of odds in pinnacle, my bet suddenly become a negative EV if compared to pinnacle

Could somebody explain whats happening?its possible if the soft one making this trap? when they push down the pinnacle odds, all scanner will popping up a value bet, then we as a regular value bettor will happily place a bet on the soft side.
(they can do this and making profit if the match is fixed, or they know something others dont know) right?
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turbobets
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Re: Understanding odds movements at asians
« Reply #8 on: December 07, 2019, 03:16:33 AM »

its possible if the soft one making this trap?

Just my opinion but I think some give the books to much credit. In your example most likely some sharp bettor(s) saw rising odds and then hammered it when the price met their threshhold, like you did and the book adjusted again.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2019, 03:31:35 AM by turbobets » Logged
CptShark
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CptShark

Re: Understanding odds movements at asians
« Reply #9 on: December 07, 2019, 02:38:00 PM »

What match was that?

2h before the match start, usually, the odds will swift around because the market reacts to the lineups/weather/etc news that come out.

It is also impossible to keep beating the closing lines. So situations like that are normal.
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mita8888
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mita8888

Re: Understanding odds movements at asians
« Reply #10 on: December 08, 2019, 03:30:53 AM »

i dont remember the exact time before match but i am sure its more than 4 hr before kick off
if the odds is shift extreme before kickoff, i can understand.

the most strange is the price on pinny drop, then in 30 minutes rise up breaking the previous price before drop

if the price only rise up from a stable price, it looks like a normal move. for me if the price go down, then valuebet scanner popping up opportunity then suddenly the price rise up extremely, this looks like a trap for me (in forex like the big boys doing stop loss hunting)
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Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Re: Understanding odds movements at asians
« Reply #11 on: December 08, 2019, 10:35:47 AM »

2 options: sharp players identified value and bet 1 side down, then arbers come in and take the "wrong side" a few times pushing the prices down a lot.  You identified value at that point but this was wrong as the odd would just keep on going against you once all arbers were done.

Option 2 is: sharps identified value, then brought the price back down after they saw what the market did (not much).  They then waited for limits to climb once the odd had stabilised and continued to pound the "correct" side with higher limits.
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