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Bet365 whistleblower reveals...

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arbusers
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Re: Bet365 whistleblower reveals...

Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:01 pm

You said you are a ...
PunterLog wrote: a staunch capitalist
But the following phrase shows (at least) a socialist.
PunterLog wrote: Also, the CEO of Bet365 took home a cool 506 Million $ last year. Surely she can let the minority of winning Players have a bet bigger than 5$.
Because this is an equalization. The bigger the dividend is, the smaller the player's profits are. Socialism, reduced to its simplest legal and practical expression, means the complete discarding of the institution of private property by transforming it into public property.

What you are suggesting here is making Bet365 odds, a public property.

If this ever comes true, then we are talking about the replacement of the unequal sharing of blessings, with an equal sharing of miseries.
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Re: Bet365 whistleblower reveals...

Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:04 pm

arbusers wrote:
Wolfie wrote: Do you valuebet at pinnacle ? No. Why is that ? Because you cant beat pinnacle. Its opinion is better.
You are wrong here.
First, because there is people value betting at Pinnacle. If you are used banging soft bookmakers for a number of years, then you can't believe that others are value betting with Pinnacle and Betfair.
Second, because smart bettors will choose which battle to give. You don't compete with Pinnacle or any other bookmaker in all markets. The smart bettor will select the markets (battles) that he wants to use, and these are the markets that he will beat Pinnacle.

Interesting....I cant even find arbs (live) between Pinnacle/Betfair and anywhere else  ;D Are the Valuebets at those two mentioend rare?
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Re: Bet365 whistleblower reveals...

Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:07 pm

arbusers wrote:
Wolfie wrote: Do you valuebet at pinnacle ? No. Why is that ? Because you cant beat pinnacle. Its opinion is better.
You are wrong here.
First, because there is people value betting at Pinnacle. If you are used banging soft bookmakers for a number of years, then you can't believe that others are value betting with Pinnacle and Betfair.
Second, because smart bettors will choose which battle to give. You don't compete with Pinnacle or any other bookmaker in all markets. The smart bettor will select the markets (battles) that he wants to use, and these are the markets that he will beat Pinnacle.
Totally agree. I did not say no one beats pinny. Syndicates have years of beating pinnacle. It was just to illustrate levels of opinion to make a point. Average sharp punter is better than 365 and lower than pinny.
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Re: Bet365 whistleblower reveals...

Sun Dec 08, 2019 8:03 pm

arbusers wrote: You said you are a ...
PunterLog wrote: a staunch capitalist
But the following phrase shows (at least) a socialist.
PunterLog wrote: Also, the CEO of Bet365 took home a cool 506 Million $ last year. Surely she can let the minority of winning Players have a bet bigger than 5$.
Socialism is theft, plain and simple.

I'm a staunch Capitalist who believes in Free market. I'd love to see companies making a profit while fulfilling the needs of it's customers. I believe 365 doesn't fulfill the needs of it's customers. Customers needs are an essential part of free market capitalism. I don't know where Socialism comes into this. Wanting a company to make profits while serving the customers needs is considered socialism?

You keep ignoring my mention of Pinnacle, where i said i would be happy if they made 5 Billion $ in profit since they fulfill their customers needs.
Because this is an equalization. The bigger the dividend is, the smaller the player's profits are. Socialism, reduced to its simplest legal and practical expression, means the complete discarding of the institution of private property by transforming it into public property.

What you are suggesting here is making Bet365 odds, a public property.

If this ever comes true, then we are talking about the replacement of the unequal sharing of blessings, with an equal sharing of miseries.
I'm absolutely not suggesting that Bet365 be made public, that would be plain theft. I'm suggesting they need to be reasonable while catering to the customers needs.

There's a middle ground between the two extremes i.e Limiting winners to 5$ and the other extreme of letting winning players wager as much as they want.

1) Limiting winners to 5$ is wrong imo.

2) Letting winners wager as much as they want is also not feasible.

So, have a middle ground where you also fulfill your customers needs instead of concentrating completely on profits. Completely disregarding customers needs and only concentrating on profits isn't free market Capitalism. If that's your definition of capitalism i.e profits only then slavery would be the ultimate form of capitalism since it's extremely beneficial to the owners and the most cost effective.

If you think wanting Bet365 to accept 250$ bets from a tiny % of winning punters is complete discarding of private property, that's absolutely ridiculous. You are neglecting the other features of capitalism like competition, fulfilling customers needs etc . If anything, bet365's actions can be equated to Government intervention though that is extreme since they are a private company at the end of the day.
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Re: Bet365 whistleblower reveals...

Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:48 pm

MrG wrote:
arbusers wrote:
Wolfie wrote: Do you valuebet at pinnacle ? No. Why is that ? Because you cant beat pinnacle. Its opinion is better.
You are wrong here.
First, because there is people value betting at Pinnacle. If you are used banging soft bookmakers for a number of years, then you can't believe that others are value betting with Pinnacle and Betfair.
Second, because smart bettors will choose which battle to give. You don't compete with Pinnacle or any other bookmaker in all markets. The smart bettor will select the markets (battles) that he wants to use, and these are the markets that he will beat Pinnacle.

Interesting....I cant even find arbs (live) between Pinnacle/Betfair and anywhere else  ;D Are the Valuebets at those two mentioend rare?

Why do you think if there isn't arb there is no value?People find value in different ways,maybe they have better statistic in some fields than pinnacle or they find a niche in some sports and they can beat pinny traders,value is when you find out that some player is injured before everybody else and you bet at offered odds first and there are many other ways to find value without needing to find arb at any side.
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Re: Bet365 whistleblower reveals...

Sun Dec 08, 2019 11:18 pm

Sure, i can see how that makes sense. A lot of that would mean being at the actual game though, right? Or are there other ways, that can be done without being there...Also, are live value bets as seen on betburger reliable to go on?
Last edited by MrG on Sun Dec 08, 2019 11:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bet365 whistleblower reveals...

Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:14 am

Why do bet365 limit all winning players to pennies and why do bet365 encourage losing players to lose even more? Why do the commercial breaks on tv have bet365 bookmaker ads followed by loan ads? Bet365 and many other bookmakers operate this way today, because their business has developed into this on their quest for profitability. It receives a lot of criticism, but the most profitable companies usually end up dictating the direction in any branch. In the airline industry, customers love to hate all the optimisation-based decisions, but ultimately all other airlines will follow.

At the same time that bookmakers try to lure as much money out of their customers' pockets as possible, they also must comply to responsible gaming principles, so that is kind of an eternal paradox. Maybe it is a kind of social capitalism, cf. the very entertaining discussion in this thread? :D

Bet365 actually does comply quite well to responsible gaming I think. I speak with regular game addicted punters on a daily basis. Last week, a guy told me he was no longer allowed to bet at bet365, so he had opened an account in his wife's name and it was immediately detected by the company's ip-monitoring systems and closed down as well. The reason for these closures were that he was depositing to often and losing too much, so now he bets offline where he is not yet profiled ... as a losing customer!

I am sure that bet365 would know, that the dividend of half a billion dollars paid to the CEO would not go unnoticed and that some people will condemn this and find it unethical as it originates from game addicted losers' lost money and ruined lives. But really I think it is more like a shout of victory or slap in the face towards their competitors. What bet365 does seems to work and I think that we will see many other bookmakers trying to copy this.

I have unfortunately not been very profitable at bet365. It is close to break-even. I am quite grateful for their existence though. Through much observation, I have deduced that they have markets with quite precise odds models and unique expert opinions, which have taught me so much and let to many profits elsewhere (another slap in the face).
Last edited by VidaBlue on Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bet365 whistleblower reveals...

Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:19 am

VidaBlue wrote:
But really I think it is more like a shout of victory or slap in the face towards their competitors. What bet365 does seems to work and I think that we will see many other bookmakers trying to copy this.
This is also my issue with anyone who supports 365's tactics. When the worlds biggest bookmaker does stuff like this, the other bookmakers will follow. The betting industry is already screwed. The only saving graces being Pinnacle, Betfair and a few other offshore bookies to some extent. Any new bookmaker entering the market will want a quick buck and will follow the mainstream tactics of limiting winning players. Basically, the industry doesn't welcome smart customers and only wants people who'll lose money.

If you have an unlimited supply of ID's yeah you won't be affected. But, some people like to wager on their accounts only. And these bookie tactics all but kill off any chance for a guy to make a sizeable bet and this sets an extremely bad environment.

I guess people in the industry don't find it weird but i'm shocked to see that such a large industry has only 1 Bookmaker left that takes big bets from winners. I don't think there's any other industry of such size with such mediocre companies serving the customer base.

I'm also surprised to see that there isn't much outrage on this issue. I've seen some guys like Steve who runs "Daily25" blog an aussie going hard about this issue on twitter. But, for the most part it's just silence.

Their PR team is extremely good unlike their risk management team.
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Re: Bet365 whistleblower reveals...

Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:27 pm

@PunterLog
I can understand the issue you're describing and it would always be nice to have less restrictions and higher limits at a larger number of bookmakers of course. The reason I am never outraged by such developments, is the fact that I actually also see personal benefits here. Let's consider THE BALANCE:

ML = BP + SP

ML: Mug punter losses
BP: Bookmaker profits
SP: Sharp player profits

ML is pretty constant (or slightly increasing), independent of the relation between BP and SP, so we cannot increase both BP and SP significantly at the same time. Over time, punters get better informed and smarter, more tools and services become available. As this continuously happens, the bookmakers NEED to react or SP would become too high, so actually the bettors themselves are responsible for this development. As restrictions are imposed, some players will need to leave the SP-group giving more room for those who decide to stay there and keep fighting. Of course one could always have an opinion on how greedy the members of the BP-part should be, but where some pay out large dividends, others are also merely trying to make a living.

Who hopefully stay in the SP-group, are the ones who:
- employ their own unique strategies
- are experts in certain sports
- are developing and employing new odds models
- are working hard quantitatively, in order to understand the odds market and its signals
Or generally: sport bettors by heart.

I love to hear when bookmakers succesfully combat multiaccounting, locust attacks, match fixing, simple bots and hordes of uninformed value bettors blindly following their simple value betting software.

There cannot be room for everyone in the SP group. Being somewhat passionate about sports betting, I think the hard working genuine sports bettor (like Steve from Daily25) should be rewarded with an extended stay, while the person who just pays for a service, borrows some ids and pushes a button should leave.
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Re: Bet365 whistleblower reveals...

Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:30 pm

VidaBlue wrote: @PunterLog
I can understand the issue you're describing and it would always be nice to have less restrictions and higher limits at a larger number of bookmakers of course. The reason I am never outraged by such developments, is the fact that I actually also see personal benefits here. Let's consider THE BALANCE:

ML = BP + SP

ML: Mug punter losses
BP: Bookmaker profits
SP: Sharp player profits

ML is pretty constant (or slightly increasing), independent of the relation between BP and SP, so we cannot increase both BP and SP significantly at the same time. Over time, punters get better informed and smarter, more tools and services become available. As this continuously happens, the bookmakers NEED to react or SP would become too high, so actually the bettors themselves are responsible for this development. As restrictions are imposed, some players will need to leave the SP-group giving more room for those who decide to stay there and keep fighting. Of course one could always have an opinion on how greedy the members of the BP-part should be, but where some pay out large dividends, others are also merely trying to make a living.

Who hopefully stay in the SP-group, are the ones who:
- employ their own unique strategies
- are experts in certain sports
- are developing and employing new odds models
- are working hard quantitatively, in order to understand the odds market and its signals
Or generally: sport bettors by heart.

I love to hear when bookmakers succesfully combat multiaccounting, locust attacks, match fixing, simple bots and hordes of uninformed value bettors blindly following their simple value betting software.

There cannot be room for everyone in the SP group. Being somewhat passionate about sports betting, I think the hard working genuine sports bettor (like Steve from Daily25) should be rewarded with an extended stay, while the person who just pays for a service, borrows some ids and pushes a button should leave.
I agree with everything you said. I'm absolutely fine with having to be among the top 5-10% of the bettors skill wise in order to make money. My only problem is, i'd like to do it without having to resort to multiple ID's. Limiting players to 5$ doesn't allow me that even if i'm in the top 5% bettors.

Australia introduced minimum bet rules for horse racing ranging from 400$ to 2,000$. This minimum bet rule applies to races in 5 of the 6 states. Something like this needs to be introduced by other jurisdictions as well. If bookmakers can't make a profit with the ridiculous margins they already have, they need to shut shop as they are extremely bad at their job. Online bookmaking is probably the only industry where you can make millions even if you are terrible at your job as you simply shut down winners and grab money from the regular punters.
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Re: Bet365 whistleblower reveals...

Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:48 pm

PunterLog wrote: Australia introduced minimum bet rules for horse racing ranging from 400$ to 2,000$. This minimum bet rule applies to races in 5 of the 6 states.
I am curious what happens when you constantly win in those accounts with 400$ minimum. Have you tried ?
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Re: Bet365 whistleblower reveals...

Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:14 pm

Wolfie wrote:
PunterLog wrote: Australia introduced minimum bet rules for horse racing ranging from 400$ to 2,000$. This minimum bet rule applies to races in 5 of the 6 states.
I am curious what happens when you constantly win in those accounts with 400$ minimum. Have you tried ?
The bookmaker must accept bets. They simply cannot refuse to take bets from winners. This applies only to Racing btw.

You can find the conditions below for the state of NSW which is the most popular state in terms of racing.

https://www.racingnsw.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Minimum-Bet-Limits.pdf
“It is pleasing to note that there has been for the most part compliance with the minimum bet conditionssince they became effective on 1 September 2014.  Racing NSW focus is to ensure that all punters should be able to place a legitimate bet on NSW thoroughbred races and should not be discriminated against by having their accounts closed or bets refused simply because they are successful.
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Re: Bet365 whistleblower reveals...

Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:49 pm

But is it useful? How many bookies were before and how many are now doing Racing in Australia?
Last edited by Trevorr on Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bet365 whistleblower reveals...

Wed Dec 11, 2019 9:14 am

Soon it will become the most efficient market ever. Since everybody will bet there will be no value left.
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Re: Bet365 whistleblower reveals...

Sat Jan 18, 2020 6:20 pm

@PunterLog

There is no point focusing on Bet365. All soft bookies use the same tactics.

Bwin limited me after my first and single bet.
Sportingbet limited me after 3 bets.
Marathon after my first and single bet.
Pokerstars after 10 bets.
There is no need to list more bookies that limited me, the story is well known. No bet exceeded 80€ and no bet was placed on odds lower than 2.00.

This is how the world spins.

There are worse things when talking about 'fair', consider bookies who literally steal and confiscate your money without excuses or any reason at all.

This is the world of gumbling, and these are the people being the scenes. If you want to beat them, that will only happen in their court, and even if you beat them noone guarantees the profit ending in your pocket, unless it's actually deposited in your wallet.

Regards

The Count Of Anjou
Last edited by CountOfaAnjou on Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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