Sloppy sharp?

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VidaBlue
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VidaBlue

Sloppy sharp?
« on: December 22, 2019, 12:49:42 AM »

I wrote this post 3 days ago, but I couldn't upload it due to the server break-down. Therefore the match in the example has already been played.

At some of the bookmakers (often referred to as softs), much of the time, I find odds that don’t make sense if you compare them with each other. For instance, one bookmaker offers soccer odds such as:

Away team to score a goal (B O 0.5): 2.3

Both team score (BTS) - yes: 2.2

Obviously, the odds at the BTS-market should in theory always be higher than the odds at the B O 0.5 bet, since the B O 0.5 is always true when both teams have scored. I believe it is a miscalculation that happens with matches where the home team is a huge favorite. There are numerous other kinds of miscalculations at the bookmakers’ systems, it looks kind of sloppy, but this is probably just the price to pay when streamlining odds setting at thousands of markets. The large population of regular punters don't care anyways.

But today, I was surprised to see this at a sharp bookmaker as well (Pinnacle), so I would like to share this example, just to assure that it indeed is just sloppiness and not something else.

Russia KHL, Vladivostok vs Minsk

Bet1: Vladivostok Over/Under 0.5 1st period: 1.892/1.892
Bet2: Minsk Over/Under 0.5 1st period: 2.280/1.613
Bet3: 1st period under 0.5: 3.75

TO1: True odds for Bet1(under) is 2.000
TO2: True odds for Bet2(under) is 1.707

So based upon the above, the following equation must be true:

True odds(Bet3) = TO1 x TO2 = 2.000 x 1.707 = 3.415

since any result after 1st period will give equal outcome on both sides.

The calculated result is way below the odds for Bet3. Bet3 should be adjusted to something like 3.2 (3.415 minus juice) not 3.75.

Do you agree or disagree? Am I right in my approach? – and do you think it is on purpose, that there is more to it, than meets the eye or is it indeed just sloppiness?
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LazyBird
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Re: Sloppy sharp?
« Reply #1 on: December 25, 2019, 12:01:02 AM »

For many bookmakers it's related to the pricing models used and the overrounds applied to each market type. Happens in all sports. For example you may find that over 2.5 sets in a tennis match is better value than backing both players to win 2-1 if the bookmaker takes less margin out of selections in that market. It often happens when comparing a major popular market where the bookmaker wants competitive prices with a smaller side market which is very similar.
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