Finding fixed matches with arbitrage

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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Yngwie/Sawyer

Finding fixed matches with arbitrage
« on: December 22, 2019, 07:46:36 AM »



I had witnessed this situation specially in events where a very high arb percentage occurs. Sometimes books remove the specific market or the whole event completely. Let me tell you a game I witnessed this situation. It was O. Volos - Panionios Volou game, 30 October 2019, Greece Cup. Odds for Away -1 handicap decreased dramatically. I left all the profit on softbook side (zero profit if sharp side wins) and decided to watch the event. The game was very interesting! The half time ended 0-0 but Away Win price was much more lower then the odds in kickoff!

These teams were not playing football, they were playing a theatre play. Not surprisingly, away team scored 3 goals in second half. I thought to myself, I could even take more risk for this bet..

Other situations I remember; specially it occurs often in Venezuella and Brazil Serie B. Specially, If you see a HALF TIME arb, it means game may be fixed 1/2 HT/FT. That's why Half Time odds are dropping. It may be a good bet to place few bucks on 1/2 HT/FT bet in this case, the odds are great.

For today, not a very very high arb but most books closed the market; Levadiaos-Kalamaria (Kalamaria has a bad reputation about fixed matches!) can be a interesting game today. I picked Both Teams to score in softbook side.  Will both teams score? We'll see about it. Edit: Higher arb appeared for Under3½ and Under4½ today. Keep in mind that the later arb is always more efficient.

Keep in mind. If you arbed a very high percentage, there's a chance that game can be fixed. Not always but sometimes it happens.

I wish everyone a profitable sunday! Let's have a good one!  :D
« Last Edit: December 22, 2019, 09:03:08 AM by Yngwie/Sawyer » Logged
dragspyr59
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dragspyr59

Re: Finding fixed matches with arbitrage
« Reply #1 on: December 22, 2019, 11:41:33 AM »

Panionios Neas Smyrnis not Volou

i was also into this game....different market u/o 2.5 huge value

yesterday there was a better one

Ionikos (6-5)-Panionios (5-6)

halftime 42-41 and the handicap was at 16.5 points......108-74
soft-pinny arb at 7+%
i didnt even bother to cover the pinny side
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VidaBlue
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Re: Finding fixed matches with arbitrage
« Reply #2 on: December 22, 2019, 11:48:55 AM »

Thank you for this usefull post YS.

Other situations I remember; specially it occurs often in Venezuella and Brazil Serie B.

Funny, these are exactly the leagues where I have found several matches I would identify as value traps based on some criteria discussed in this forum. One of them was the O/U market in Ponte Preta vs Figueirense nov 2019. So it may be fixed matches that the bookmakers are aware of or it may be other very exclusive information which causes these very peculiar odds movements. Based upon your description of the "theatre match", it would seem that this match was indeed fixed.

I have an ethical issue betting on fixed matches knowing they're fixed, but I can definitely accept doing this, when the approach is "peculiar odds patterns" instead on concrete information. At the end of the day, I think the reasons for these patterns can be various, and good to know how to use this information in your favor.
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Alfa1234
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Re: Finding fixed matches with arbitrage
« Reply #3 on: December 22, 2019, 12:18:08 PM »

Panionios Neas Smyrnis not Volou

i was also into this game....different market u/o 2.5 huge value

yesterday there was a better one

Ionikos (6-5)-Panionios (5-6)

halftime 42-41 and the handicap was at 16.5 points......108-74
soft-pinny arb at 7+%
i didnt even bother to cover the pinny side

Be very careful with the Panionios basketball team.  There have been numerous situations like this with them and they don't always play out as you would expect it to by just looking at the odd moves. 
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