Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

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barnstorm
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barnstorm

Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?
« on: January 14, 2020, 11:34:48 PM »

Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Seems like everyone here has the whole process automated.

Can't Bet365 detect that you are wagering by Bot, and therefore they pretty much figure you are Value Betting and hunting down their
 soft lines?
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dnf
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Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?
« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2020, 02:17:33 AM »

Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?
Depends on what you mean by "serious". If your value-betting strategy is to track line changes of sharp bookmakers and bet those against softer ones, you can almost certainly valuebet by hand using an odds aggregator (or just having a bunch of websites open). Automating the process provides many advantages, though:

  • an automated system can notice and respond to line changes faster than you can, meaning it can realize more opportunities for value.
  • an automated system can achieve a higher turnover/surface area by virtue of never having to sleep, eat, drink, etc, and being able to bet on all bets everywhere throughout the whole day.
  • an automated system can still generate value even without your continued attention.
OTOH if your strategy to find value is to do your own handicapping then a bot is much less valuable, as your bottleneck becomes your own ability to handicap accurately. (Unless you can get a bot to do the handicapping for you...)

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Can't Bet365 detect that you are wagering by Bot, and therefore they pretty much figure you are Value Betting and hunting down their
 soft lines?
Yes, although the scuttlebutt suggests that it can take a while for them to do this. My experience is that most accounts used for steam-chasing do tend to get limited fairly quickly, although YMMV.
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maletaja
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Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?
« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2020, 07:31:51 AM »

Anybody can say how much bot costs?
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pooler
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pooler

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?
« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2020, 10:43:48 AM »

Anybody can say how much bot costs?

from 100€ ..250€ ... 500€ ..1000€ ... it depends on how good should bot be .. on how many bookmekars should bet ... if you want extra logging, stats, checks, and other

I'm programmer ... I have one bot for bet365 and unibet ... (for rebelbetting)
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arbusers
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arbusers

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?
« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2020, 01:08:25 PM »

Anybody can say how much bot costs?

That depends on the bot firstly. Usually, bot developers are asking for a (generous) cut from profits.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?
« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2020, 02:30:47 AM »

Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Seems like everyone here has the whole process automated.

Can't Bet365 detect that you are wagering by Bot, and therefore they pretty much figure you are Value Betting and hunting down their
 soft lines?

I don't do bot bets anymore but profits are higher now than when I did. My homebuilt bot made some profits, but maybe it wasn't very good afterall so it is not a statement that automation isn't the right thing to do. It is just my own experience.

I use bots (or scripts) today just to scrape interesting overvalued odds that are not present in any odds comparison site or service. This is done for bookmakers that offer offline betting. In my country I have easy access to such kind of betting and bettors have good rights, so the road has brought me here so far.

I plan to use automation again for placing bets in some projects, but not in others. In my opinion bot action is not paramount, purely optional. For instance, you could be the guy who comes up with a new nba model and place 10 high stake bets per day. You wouldn't need a bot to do so. Maybe this last example wouldn't be what we call value betting, but then it is value with reference to the model. Value regardless.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2020, 02:35:04 AM by VidaBlue » Logged
pooler
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pooler

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?
« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2020, 07:18:09 AM »

Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Seems like everyone here has the whole process automated.

Can't Bet365 detect that you are wagering by Bot, and therefore they pretty much figure you are Value Betting and hunting down their
 soft lines?

I don't do bot bets anymore but profits are higher now than when I did. My homebuilt bot made some profits, but maybe it wasn't very good afterall so it is not a statement that automation isn't the right thing to do. It is just my own experience.

I use bots (or scripts) today just to scrape interesting overvalued odds that are not present in any odds comparison site or service. This is done for bookmakers that offer offline betting. In my country I have easy access to such kind of betting and bettors have good rights, so the road has brought me here so far.

I plan to use automation again for placing bets in some projects, but not in others. In my opinion bot action is not paramount, purely optional. For instance, you could be the guy who comes up with a new nba model and place 10 high stake bets per day. You wouldn't need a bot to do so. Maybe this last example wouldn't be what we call value betting, but then it is value with reference to the model. Value regardless.

In the future AI will predict result of the match (people will sell AI)

what bookmakers are you scrapping ? what technology do you use for scrapping ?
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VidaBlue
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Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?
« Reply #7 on: January 20, 2020, 02:20:25 AM »

what bookmakers are you scrapping ?
I do not want to publicly specify which bookmakers I scrape, but it has to be those where part of the business is offline betting (shop betting) such that I don't have to worry much about limits. I also scrape some of the well known larger bookmakers (bet365, kambi, etc.) in very special markets - it could be player shots on target in soccer, total rebounds for player x in basket, dragons slain in lol - but that is just for reference in order to find discrepancies -> value.

what technology do you use for scrapping ?
I'm an old timer in visual basic, so that's what I still use. I tried to shift to python, but it takes me much more time, so as long as it can get the job done, I continue with VB. I generally don't mind if scripts are slow, because I am scraping only when needed, so often it is just twice a day. Furthermore, if scripts would click and navigate faster than a regular human is capable of, I am afraid of getting ip-blocks etc., that complicate things. So I just make scripts that click and navigate the browser in a less robot-like fashion, yet still cover most of the content I specify.
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SuperSquirrel
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Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?
« Reply #8 on: February 06, 2020, 11:52:10 AM »

I'm finding that you don't need a software/robot for such a thing. In recent times, I am finding success (around 20-40% value) from what bookmakers are calling "request a bet". I wouldn't recommend this for arbers but definitely if you're looking for good value bets.

I have seen a trend that clearly shows bookies are giving a lot of unnecessary value away.

It's a longer-term strategy though, so if you don't like to handle much variance or don't have a big bankroll I wouldn't recommend this method. But it's worth keeping an eye one.
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Samael
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Samael

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?
« Reply #9 on: March 31, 2020, 05:58:10 PM »

Ive been checking out few people that run bots/models with decent results on transparent sites like pyckio,blogabet etc.

How good your model is can be measured by how many trap matches he can avoid.
I see lot of baits and trap matches there,but hey if you end in green its good cause you have to leak somewhere
and lose some bets.

My guess is that you could create quite accurate bot for football.
Tennis and Nba are tricky and need serious game knowledge because of individual oscillations,
frequent roster changes etc.
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