BetBurger | Live and Pre-game surebets
RebelBetting - Turn betting into investing

Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Is this the new hack of smart gambling?
barnstorm
Has experience
Has experienceHas experience
Karma: 3
Posts: 174
Joined: Wed May 11, 2016 3:53 pm

Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Tue Jan 10, 2023 8:34 am

Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Seems like everyone here has the whole process automated.

Can't Bet365 detect that you are wagering by Bot, and therefore they pretty much figure you are Value Betting and hunting down their
soft lines?
dnf
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 2
Posts: 5
Joined: Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:54 pm

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Tue Jan 10, 2023 2:17 pm

barnstorm wrote: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?
Depends on what you mean by "serious". If your value-betting strategy is to track line changes of sharp bookmakers and bet those against softer ones, you can almost certainly valuebet by hand using an odds aggregator (or just having a bunch of websites open). Automating the process provides many advantages, though:
  1. an automated system can notice and respond to line changes faster than you can, meaning it can realize more opportunities for value.
  2. an automated system can achieve a higher turnover/surface area by virtue of never having to sleep, eat, drink, etc, and being able to bet on all bets everywhere throughout the whole day.
  3. an automated system can still generate value even without your continued attention.
OTOH if your strategy to find value is to do your own handicapping then a bot is much less valuable, as your bottleneck becomes your own ability to handicap accurately. (Unless you can get a bot to do the handicapping for you...)
Can't Bet365 detect that you are wagering by Bot, and therefore they pretty much figure you are Value Betting and hunting down their
soft lines?
Yes, although the scuttlebutt suggests that it can take a while for them to do this. My experience is that most accounts used for steam-chasing do tend to get limited fairly quickly, although YMMV.
maletaja
Pro
ProProProPro
Karma: -22
Posts: 532
Joined: Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:45 am

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Wed Jan 11, 2023 7:31 am

Anybody can say how much bot costs?
pooler
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 4
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:17 am

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Wed Jan 11, 2023 10:43 am

maletaja wrote: Anybody can say how much bot costs?
from 100€ ..250€ ... 500€ ..1000€ ... it depends on how good should bot be .. on how many bookmekars should bet ... if you want extra logging, stats, checks, and other

I'm programmer ... I have one bot for bet365 and unibet ... (for rebelbetting)
User avatar
arbusers
Administrator
AdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministrator
Contact:
Karma: 622
Posts: 6212
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Wed Jan 11, 2023 1:08 pm

maletaja wrote: Anybody can say how much bot costs?
That depends on the bot firstly. Usually, bot developers are asking for a (generous) cut from profits.
VidaBlue
To become a Pro
To become a ProTo become a ProTo become a Pro
Contact:
Karma: 68
Posts: 299
Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:36 pm

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Thu Jan 12, 2023 2:30 am

barnstorm wrote: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Seems like everyone here has the whole process automated.

Can't Bet365 detect that you are wagering by Bot, and therefore they pretty much figure you are Value Betting and hunting down their
soft lines?
I don't do bot bets anymore but profits are higher now than when I did. My homebuilt bot made some profits, but maybe it wasn't very good afterall so it is not a statement that automation isn't the right thing to do. It is just my own experience.

I use bots (or scripts) today just to scrape interesting overvalued odds that are not present in any odds comparison site or service. This is done for bookmakers that offer offline betting. In my country I have easy access to such kind of betting and bettors have good rights, so the road has brought me here so far.

I plan to use automation again for placing bets in some projects, but not in others. In my opinion bot action is not paramount, purely optional. For instance, you could be the guy who comes up with a new nba model and place 10 high stake bets per day. You wouldn't need a bot to do so. Maybe this last example wouldn't be what we call value betting, but then it is value with reference to the model. Value regardless.
Last edited by VidaBlue on Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
pooler
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 4
Posts: 16
Joined: Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:17 am

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Fri Jan 13, 2023 7:18 am

VidaBlue wrote:
barnstorm wrote: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Seems like everyone here has the whole process automated.

Can't Bet365 detect that you are wagering by Bot, and therefore they pretty much figure you are Value Betting and hunting down their
soft lines?
I don't do bot bets anymore but profits are higher now than when I did. My homebuilt bot made some profits, but maybe it wasn't very good afterall so it is not a statement that automation isn't the right thing to do. It is just my own experience.

I use bots (or scripts) today just to scrape interesting overvalued odds that are not present in any odds comparison site or service. This is done for bookmakers that offer offline betting. In my country I have easy access to such kind of betting and bettors have good rights, so the road has brought me here so far.

I plan to use automation again for placing bets in some projects, but not in others. In my opinion bot action is not paramount, purely optional. For instance, you could be the guy who comes up with a new nba model and place 10 high stake bets per day. You wouldn't need a bot to do so. Maybe this last example wouldn't be what we call value betting, but then it is value with reference to the model. Value regardless.
In the future AI will predict result of the match (people will sell AI)

what bookmakers are you scrapping ? what technology do you use for scrapping ?
VidaBlue
To become a Pro
To become a ProTo become a ProTo become a Pro
Contact:
Karma: 68
Posts: 299
Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:36 pm

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Sat Jan 14, 2023 2:20 am

pooler wrote: what bookmakers are you scrapping ?
I do not want to publicly specify which bookmakers I scrape, but it has to be those where part of the business is offline betting (shop betting) such that I don't have to worry much about limits. I also scrape some of the well known larger bookmakers (bet365, kambi, etc.) in very special markets - it could be player shots on target in soccer, total rebounds for player x in basket, dragons slain in lol - but that is just for reference in order to find discrepancies -> value.
pooler wrote: what technology do you use for scrapping ?
I'm an old timer in visual basic, so that's what I still use. I tried to shift to python, but it takes me much more time, so as long as it can get the job done, I continue with VB. I generally don't mind if scripts are slow, because I am scraping only when needed, so often it is just twice a day. Furthermore, if scripts would click and navigate faster than a regular human is capable of, I am afraid of getting ip-blocks etc., that complicate things. So I just make scripts that click and navigate the browser in a less robot-like fashion, yet still cover most of the content I specify.
SuperSquirrel
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 3
Posts: 28
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 9:34 pm

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Sun Jan 15, 2023 11:52 am

I'm finding that you don't need a software/robot for such a thing. In recent times, I am finding success (around 20-40% value) from what bookmakers are calling "request a bet". I wouldn't recommend this for arbers but definitely if you're looking for good value bets.

I have seen a trend that clearly shows bookies are giving a lot of unnecessary value away.

It's a longer-term strategy though, so if you don't like to handle much variance or don't have a big bankroll I wouldn't recommend this method. But it's worth keeping an eye one.
Samael
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 7
Posts: 77
Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2015 3:48 pm

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Sun Jan 15, 2023 4:58 pm

Ive been checking out few people that run bots/models with decent results on transparent sites like pyckio,blogabet etc.

How good your model is can be measured by how many trap matches he can avoid.
I see lot of baits and trap matches there,but hey if you end in green its good cause you have to leak somewhere
and lose some bets.

My guess is that you could create quite accurate bot for football.
Tennis and Nba are tricky and need serious game knowledge because of individual oscillations,
frequent roster changes etc.
User avatar
arbusers
Administrator
AdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministrator
Contact:
Karma: 622
Posts: 6212
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Mon Jan 16, 2023 5:42 am

Samael wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:58 pm
How good your model is can be measured by how many trap matches he can avoid.
I see lot of baits and trap matches there,but hey if you end in green its good cause you have to leak somewhere

This is where good filtering comes in. I am afraid the era when a simple comparison between Pinnacle, Betfair on one side, and a soft book from the other side, are simply gone. You need a far more sophisticated filtering for your bots in order to profit in the long run.
There is something that is not discussed a lot, and this is human behaviour in bot action. Bots must resemble human action, otherwise a random check would limit/lock your accounts within days, or hours.
marko kostic
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 1
Posts: 32
Joined: Mon Feb 07, 2022 8:39 pm

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Tue Jan 17, 2023 1:05 am

Samael wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:58 pm
How good your model is can be measured by how many trap matches he can avoid.
I see lot of baits and trap matches there,but hey if you end in green its good cause you have to leak somewhere
and lose some bets.
What do you mean by traps? Bookies changing odds due to the market liquidity, and thus creating value that is actually not there?

If I were to build a bot, I guess I just wouldn't make his response super fast, otherwise it's a recipe for getting limited right away. I'm not sure most advantages of a bot are also disadvantages, because if you try to exploit 30% of them, you're getting limited. That's just my opinion tho, and I still haven't tried working with bots, but am keen to do so.
Running a marathon, not a sprint race
elbelle22
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 0
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:16 am

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:06 pm

arbusers wrote:
Fri Mar 11, 2022 5:42 am
Samael wrote:
Tue Mar 31, 2020 4:58 pm
How good your model is can be measured by how many trap matches he can avoid.
I see lot of baits and trap matches there,but hey if you end in green its good cause you have to leak somewhere

This is where good filtering comes in. I am afraid the era when a simple comparison between Pinnacle, Betfair on one side, and a soft book from the other side, are simply gone. You need a far more sophisticated filtering for your bots in order to profit in the long run.
There is something that is not discussed a lot, and this is human behaviour in bot action. Bots must resemble human action, otherwise a random check would limit/lock your accounts within days, or hours.
Is it possible to do enough of the filtering on betburger? Or do you need to take it all a step further and filter from multiple sources etc?

I ask as I've a few bots on the go using betburger but limited success so far based on that simple comparison you mention.
elbelle22
Gaining experience
Gaining experience
Karma: 0
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:16 am

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Thu Jan 19, 2023 6:35 am

@arbusers what do you think?
User avatar
arbusers
Administrator
AdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministratorAdministrator
Contact:
Karma: 622
Posts: 6212
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 4:34 pm

Re: Is a Bot necessary to do serious Value Betting?

Thu Jan 19, 2023 8:55 am

elbelle22 wrote:
Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:35 am
@arbusers what do you think?

The issue ''value betting with bots'' is so big that I can't answer with a single post. Make specific questions to receive specific answer.

Meanwhile, my very general position on value betting, and that includes bots as well can be found
here and here.

I would like to make a comment at this stage, that reflects pretty much the situation in the value betting with bots sphere. It is a fact that more and more bots are getting into the fight. Different bots, different logics, different filtering and results.
Bookmakers are now feeling the pressure, they lose money and they start building their defence. In any way the can. This is still terra incognita for them and there is no blue print they can follow. But have no doubt, it will not take long until they set their SOP (Standard Operating Procedures) with the help of AI companies. A giant bookmaker already awarded a lavish contract for this. They were able to stop the 1st generation of bots and now they are going after the 2nd.
For now, they simply update their anti-scraping security but have no doubt they are making their plans for a better defence.

Again, make specific questions to receive specific answers. And BTW, welcome again to our forum.

Return to “Value betting talk”