[arbusers]

We had a nice discussion with the Captain's log 2019, in regards to what will happen if Pinnacle goes. You can read some more here: https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=6910.msg73987#msg73987
I decided to come back with some more analysis and ideas, including a flashback in time so we compare today with some years ago and wrote the following article.

https://arbusers.com/portal/last-man-standing-pinnacle/

Feel free to comment.

[Wolfie]

I think what really makes them bleed is value betting and syndicates which are the biggest value bettors. Arbers are mostly losing at their side so its good business for Pinny. The turning point arrived when those who were arbing with pinny started value betting not covering the sharp side. That is a big part of their profit going away.

[campeones]

The spot to the point.
Pinnacle plays dump pretending they don't care about sharp action. Of course, they care a lot. One of the things you forgot to mention in your article, is that Pinnacle will reject your bet several times until they offer you a new line most probably a lower one. Our traders are trying to place a bet and I have seen 5-6 efforts on a row and each time a new line was offered. To be fair, some times they might offer a better line, but most of the times a sharp bettor will be offered lower odds.

[Trevorr]

I would be so excited if Pinnacle goes.    Many bookies would be so confused and there would be great opportunities. If you arb/valuebet now using Pin, you are limited in nanoseconds. 

[VidaBlue]

The turning point arrived when those who were arbing with pinny started value betting not covering the sharp side. That is a big part of their profit going away.

So true.
2015-2017: I had steady losses with Pinnacle via arbing.
2018: I didn't dare to touch Pinnacle.
2019-2020: I have so far recovered 25% of the Pinnacle arbing losses via value betting on Pinnacle.

[VidaBlue]

Thank you for such an interesting and relevant topic.

Referring to the article:

In the unlikely event that Pinnacle somehow disappears from the market, the market will be disorientated completely, and bookmakers will suffer massively. This will mean the end of arbitrage as we know it, (unless a new Pinnacle or an exchange emerges) and the complete domination of value betting.

Wouldn't a completely disorientated market actually create MORE swings and discrepancies leading to MORE arbitrage? The paragraph above only makes sense if "arbitrage as we know it" is playing opposite outcomes where Pinnacle has to be included. However there is arbitrage that does not include Pinnacle nor exchanges. Arbing within softbooks, high stakes at offline bookmakers, etc.

As far as the question goes:
Could you imagine sharp betting without Pinnacle?

If "sharp betting" is placing arbs or value betting via an unfiltered (simple) pinnacle lean approach, then betting using advanced analytics, ai and modelling must be "supersharp betting". Sure, smart betting of all kinds will always prevail and there will always be some kind of balance between square bettors on one side and bookmakers and sharp bettors on the other side. This is independant of whether a bookmaker such as pinnacle exists, and it is a very positive thing for this balance, to see that many sharp bettors (arbers for instance) are strugling and giving up - it is highly needed. The really limiting factor will always be the market liquidity - the stake sizes that each bettor has to play within.

[arbusers]

Thank you for commenting.

Wouldn't a completely disorientated market actually create MORE swings and discrepancies leading to MORE arbitrage? The paragraph above only makes sense if "arbitrage as we know it" is playing opposite outcomes where Pinnacle has to be included. However there is arbitrage that does not include Pinnacle nor exchanges. Arbing within softbooks, high stakes at offline bookmakers, etc.

Exactly. It would create more arbitrage than before because there will be no reliable reference for bookmakers to compare their prices and understand where the market is. And of course, this has to do with the markets where Pinnacle should be included.
But the question arising here is how much sustainable is that arbitrage? If Pinnacle goes, the limits offered by the traditional bookmakers will be symbolic only, not to say vanished. In addition, arbitrage among soft bookmakers is not really profitable as we have seen during the last decades, simply because most of them will act like Mickey Mouse bookmakers, allowing for minor stakes to be placed. In regards to the offline bookmakers, these will continue offering chances for those who can exploit them, but again arbitrage with offline and Mickey Mouse online bookmakers will not worth the time and the effort.

On the contrary, we identify Pinnacle as the #1 competitor for Value Bettors. If Pinnacle goes, Value Bettors will party. As a side comment, I must stress that Mickey Mouse bookmakers will create even more chances than they already do, for bot action in the case that Pinnacle goes.

[Alfa1234]

The spot to the point.
Pinnacle plays dump pretending they don't care about sharp action. Of course, they care a lot. One of the things you forgot to mention in your article, is that Pinnacle will reject your bet several times until they offer you a new line most probably a lower one. Our traders are trying to place a bet and I have seen 5-6 efforts on a row and each time a new line was offered. To be fair, some times they might offer a better line, but most of the times a sharp bettor will be offered lower odds.

I have never noticed this before.  Is it account related and they actually do not accept those bets or do you think the line just happened to have moved because of a different bet already having been placed on that line by someone else?

[arbusers]

I have never noticed this before.  Is it account related and they actually do not accept those bets or do you think the line just happened to have moved because of a different bet already having been placed on that line by someone else?

As I understand it, the bet is not rejected, but Pinnacle offers a new line. Obviously, in high volatility times when many are queueing for a bet, Pinnacle will offer new odds, most probably lower.

[dealer wins]

I still think for the main markets in the big sports/leagues, Betfair exchange is the line, and even if Pinnacle disappear that wouldnt change.  For the smaller leagues/sports, im not sure anyone knows what the line is, Pinnacle even guesstimate.  But take value or arb these smaller sports and you get limited by softs quickly anyway.