Where are the most value bets found?

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barnstorm
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Where are the most value bets found?
« on: January 17, 2020, 05:36:38 AM »

Where are the most value bets found? In what sports and what type of wager are the most value bets found?

Euro or International Basketball moneylines, or point spreads, or over/unders?
Soccer moneylines, or over/unders? Other prop bets?
Tennis moneylines? ATP, WTA or Challengers? Over/Unders?
Euro Hockey moneylines, or over/unders?

Thanks!
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Phoenixking
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Re: Where are the most value bets found?
« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2020, 05:52:56 AM »

Where are the most value bets found? In what sports and what type of wager are the most value bets found?

Euro or International Basketball moneylines, or point spreads, or over/unders?
Soccer moneylines, or over/unders? Other prop bets?
Tennis moneylines? ATP, WTA or Challengers? Over/Unders?
Euro Hockey moneylines, or over/unders?

Thanks!
Depends a lot on the bookie and the sport, For example in soccer the line movement in Bet 365 is pretty fast, but not so much for hockey and other sports.The easiest way I find value bets is I go through every fixture the soft bookie has and compare it with sharp, Say the odds for away are 7.2 at soft and 6.2 at sharp,Since higher odds can bring lot of volatility, In this case there is a good chance you can find value in asian handicap in the fixture.         
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barnstorm
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Re: Where are the most value bets found?
« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2020, 03:53:58 PM »

Where are the most value bets found? In what sports and what type of wager are the most value bets found?

Euro or International Basketball moneylines, or point spreads, or over/unders?
Soccer moneylines, or over/unders? Other prop bets?
Tennis moneylines? ATP, WTA or Challengers? Over/Unders?
Euro Hockey moneylines, or over/unders?

Thanks!
Depends a lot on the bookie and the sport, For example in soccer the line movement in Bet 365 is pretty fast, but not so much for hockey and other sports.The easiest way I find value bets is I go through every fixture the soft bookie has and compare it with sharp, Say the odds for away are 7.2 at soft and 6.2 at sharp,Since higher odds can bring lot of volatility, In this case there is a good chance you can find value in asian handicap in the fixture.       

Thanks. From my limited time, I seemed to find most in Euro basketball, Euro Hockey and less popular tennis matches.
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Phoenixking
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Phoenixking

Re: Where are the most value bets found?
« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2020, 10:11:32 PM »

Welcome bro, Be very careful about Euro hockey leagues, Some of them have very low liquidity and can easily move the pinny line with out generating value. 
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Re: Where are the most value bets found?
« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2020, 03:18:48 PM »

Friendly matches these days  :D
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jonibiza19
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Re: Where are the most value bets found?
« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2020, 11:10:40 PM »

Be careful with those friendly matches, a good percentage of them are fixed.
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DPG
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DPG

Re: Where are the most value bets found?
« Reply #6 on: January 31, 2020, 08:21:10 AM »


Don't make value bets in NBA, ever. 
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pooler
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pooler

Re: Where are the most value bets found?
« Reply #7 on: January 31, 2020, 08:30:22 AM »


Don't make value bets in NBA, ever.
please explain in detail why not
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DPG
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Re: Where are the most value bets found?
« Reply #8 on: January 31, 2020, 09:33:22 AM »


Detail:

In NBA:

If you beat the closing line you lose.
If you back a team that gets hugely cut and beat the closing line by a massive amount you lose.
If you back the favourite you lose.
If you go for negative middles/sides you lose.

Basically do not ever value bet on the NBA.  :D
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DPG
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DPG

Re: Where are the most value bets found?
« Reply #9 on: February 01, 2020, 01:22:44 PM »


I don't have any stats and don't know where to find any but even yesterday Milwaukee Bucks were 1.22 and cut to 1.12 and they  were beaten by 12 points. LA Lakers even shorter at 1.11 and beaten yesterday aswell. Don't know what it's like in other Basketball leagues but never seen so many heavy favourites and teams backed in turned over in other sports.

I don't value bet in NBA, I learnt the hard way.
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pooler
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pooler

Re: Where are the most value bets found?
« Reply #10 on: February 01, 2020, 03:32:35 PM »

DPG:
it depends on many things, why favorite lose

try to learn what "statistics" mean ... what "odds" represent .. and what is real chance of any event occured
it's normal, that even with odd 1.11 you can lose .... my smallest odds I lost was 1.01
odd 1.11 mean, that there is 90% chance, that team win ... if you have 1000 matches with those odds, in average there will be 100 matches, where favorit lose with odd 1.11
and it is normal, that you can win with odd 5 ... 10 .. 20 ... 50 ... 100 (it's not so often)

you need to bet at least 1000-5000 matches, to say that "there is no value bet in NBA"

from my years of experiences in another business, where was "let's say 10 000 000 events" I really know, how statistics works in long term or in short term ... and I think, that low chance events occurs more often, than "in average they should" (so it's better to bet against success/probability ... to LAY bet)
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DPG
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DPG

Re: Where are the most value bets found?
« Reply #11 on: February 01, 2020, 05:36:31 PM »


I fully understand odds and probability, I have been betting for many years and studied Maths to a high level. Just never seen so many short odds and teams whose odds are drastically cut on match day lose before. Doesn't happen so often in any other sports I bet in! There was another poster on this forum who has been betting on NBA league for much longer than me and he said the same thing.
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pooler
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Re: Where are the most value bets found?
« Reply #12 on: February 01, 2020, 05:50:03 PM »

odds do not represent just probability of match ... odds also changed based on how many people and how much was betted on certain odds
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DPG
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DPG

Re: Where are the most value bets found?
« Reply #13 on: February 01, 2020, 06:15:54 PM »


Yes we all know that. But what I've seen here is different. When the sharps cuts a team's price on the back of a player injury or team news in football that team invariably goes on to win. In NBA it doesn't happen like that. The odds can move wildly. I've seen teams go from 2.00 to 1.27 due to reported player injury but they end up losing. Anyway it's just something I've picked up on, would be good to see some statistics about how often favourites win in each sport. Had a quick search on google but couldn't find anything.
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