Arbing Opportunities on Mobile

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SuperSquirrel
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SuperSquirrel

Arbing Opportunities on Mobile
« on: January 21, 2020, 01:18:40 PM »

Hi Arbers,

I've been arb betting manually for a number of years, and have tried some of the arb alert services mentioned in a previous post here:
https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=6713.0

It really does seem like the traditional existing services aren't innovating enough. After all, it's tough for them because they all use the same data providers so it's hard to really create a differentiation.

Traditional arbing has now become more challenging. Even if you discovered an arb of say 2% you'll need to be willing to have a really big bankroll to make it worthwhile.

After reading through the forum threads, I thought it's worth to share something I have discovered that could be worth your while in researching too.

There's a relatively new concept that began in November 2019 and I discovered it in a matched betting forum. The thread goes on to explain how matched bettors are also frustrated with the lack of value bookmakers offer with regards to free bets/promotions and now the best thing to do is get into arbing once the sign-up offers are completed.

The concept is exactly the same as Arbing, but the unique angle with this is - you take the price at the bookmaker before it falls.


Essentially, some bookmakers tend to be quite slow in reflecting their prices across the market (that's what I've gathered). So you shoot the price before it's about to fall. Once you receive the alert you have anywhere between 1-15 mins to place your back bet.

You then lay the event in Betfair exchange. Your profit is obviously the price difference. So for example, let's say a horse is currently odds of 5.0 and the alert service informs you that the price is going to fall down to 4.0. If you see the same horse on the same bookie at the same price (5.0) place your back bet.

Then, just wait a few minutes just before the event begins, as the lay price falls then place your lay bet. Let's say we place a £20 stake at 5.0 and we see lay at 4.0 (anything below 5.0 qualifies for an arb) we'd make £4.05 profit (based on 5% lay commission, which you can get down to 2% using Betfair's latest reward program).

That's an ROI of 20.25%

I'm not going to promote the service with a direct, as I don't want to have my post removed - but you can go ahead and research for Arb Shooters or find them on Facebook?

From my experience, it will only work if you can be registered with the following bookmakers in your country:

Bet365 (massively valuable)
SkyBet
Paddy Power
Ladbrokes

You don't need all of them, but if you did have access to all then obviously you'll be able to take advantage of more arb alert opportunities.

The following exchange must be available to you
Betfair exchange. It has the most liquidity in the market. Plus Betfair's reward program allows your lay commission to drop down from 5% to only 2%.

Optional exchanges to use for Arb Shooting:
Smarkets
Betdaq

Unfortunately, matchbook's exchange wouldn't be suitable as there's hardly ever any liquidity for the markets where the Arb alerts are mentions. Which is a shame as matchbook are a great exchange and tend to charge much less lay commission more often.

As you know, when you place bets with these bookies you'll also qualify for their existing promotions. For example, SkyBet's weekly free bet club, where you bet £25 and receive £5 free bet each week. When you match off the free bet (using any free matched betting calculator) you'll grab an extra £3.00 profit each week too! Small profits still add it  ;D

This new method of Arb Shooting seems to be quite new and certainly more innovative than regular Arb alert services I find. This, I feel gives us arbers a massive advantage again (finally!). I'm finding the range in  Arb value (ROI) is anywhere between 10-25%.

Potential downsides
1. I guess if too many people find out about it, it could lead to bookmakers picking up on the volume of trade happening on a certain event/market and decide to remedy the inefficiency.

2. You have to be quick. The arb alerts occur pretty much in real-time, so you need to be quick. I suggest downloading the bookmaker apps for speed.

That's all there is to it at the moment, I'm sure there will be more development improvements as one member has already created a one-page scraping tool using the bookie and exchange APIs. Not sure if it's rolled out for everyone, I still don't have the tool myself  :-X

Has anyone else discovered this new approach to Arb Shooting? If anyone knows what's involved with price predicting tools, I'd love to hear from you. Cheers.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2020, 02:24:51 PM by SuperSquirrel » Logged
balls of steele
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balls of steele

Re: Arbing Opportunities on Mobile
« Reply #1 on: January 21, 2020, 01:31:58 PM »

Arbing on horses is the fastest way to get limited.
I found the FB group you mentioned and found out it has 6 (six) members. I don't trust FB groups as many scams always hide there but let's suppose this is not the case.
Could you explain how can you predict the odds going down, or is it just a magic formula?
I remember something similar some time ago when an Albanian was trying to move the lines with other people's money, just to create an arb for himself. This is a tactic that many so-called tipsters use.
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SuperSquirrel
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SuperSquirrel

Re: Arbing Opportunities on Mobile
« Reply #2 on: January 21, 2020, 01:39:53 PM »

Hey! Thanks for reading and your reply. I'm sure the Facebook page is newly created as the service only began in November 2019. I wouldn't expect everyone to know about it. Plus, there are currently only about 120 members using this method.

No, I don't think there's magic here it's some sort of price predicting software, that's why I'm asking if anyone knows more about price predicting tools or services out there, and how does it compare?  :)
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SuperSquirrel
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SuperSquirrel

Re: Arbing Opportunities on Mobile
« Reply #3 on: January 21, 2020, 01:41:56 PM »

May I know what you're arbing on in order to avoid getting restricted? I tend to just profit from these horse racing arbs, and place big mug bets on high profile events like UK football and NFL.
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ArbController
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Re: Arbing Opportunities on Mobile
« Reply #4 on: January 31, 2020, 05:34:34 PM »

Hey, I did some more research around "Arb Shooter" and watched the video explainer on Youtube. It sounds pretty good, and understand that the software can predict the bookie price dropping, but how would you know the lay price in the exchange?

Also, I assume you place the back bet fast, and then lay when the race starts - can you lay earlier? I don't know of any existing Price alert services that offer such a thing. I'll give this a go over the next week or so, and see how it goes.

Look forward to your reply.
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SuperSquirrel
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SuperSquirrel

Re: Arbing Opportunities on Mobile
« Reply #5 on: February 03, 2020, 11:26:25 AM »

Hey, I did some more research around "Arb Shooter" and watched the video explainer on Youtube. It sounds pretty good, and understand that the software can predict the bookie price dropping, but how would you know the lay price in the exchange?

Also, I assume you place the back bet fast, and then lay when the race starts - can you lay earlier? I don't know of any existing Price alert services that offer such a thing. I'll give this a go over the next week or so, and see how it goes.

Look forward to your reply.


Hi there,

"understand that the software can predict the bookie price dropping, but how would you know the lay price in the exchange? "


 So the bookmaker price drop I find to be 100% accurate, but there's no way to predict how the exchange market will react.

For example, a horse on Bet365 is priced at 13.00 and the arb alert tells us the price is about to fall down to 9.0.
As you may know, in a bookie exchange, the lay odds tend to be higher than the back odds here. So, when the original back odds drop, you then expect the lay to be around 9.0 or above. It doesn't mean to wait for the lay to drop right down to 9.0, instead, it's better to lock-in profit any time you see the lay odds LOWER than the Bookmaker back odds.

To continue with this example, let's say you managed to jump on the Arb alert at back odds of 13.00 - and nearer to the event time you see lay odds of, 10.00. I would take that instantly, as it's a guaranteed profit.

In this example, if you placed just a £30 bookie bet, and based on my current exchange commission with Betfair @ 2%, You will lock-in £8.30 profit. Which is a return of 27.66%!

I say return because it's really down to an individual on how much they want to bet on the arb. If you placed £100 back bet, then it's £27.66 profit.

"Also, I assume you place the back bet fast, and then lay when the race starts - can you lay earlier?"

You place the back bet as soon as you receive the alert if you see the same price jump on! Laying the bet can happen nearer to the event start time, however, as explained above, it's completely up to you when you wish to lay.

SO, back fast, lay slow  8)

I hope this helps, and good luck  :D
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ArbController
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Re: Arbing Opportunities on Mobile
« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2020, 04:57:34 PM »

Perfect! I am currently doing the free trial and it's going well. I managed to jump on two (2) Arb alerts, ROI 30% grabbing me £34 profit. Solid!  ;D

I noticed the Arbshooter alerts tend to be on horse racing from the USA tracks. Is it only USA horse racing or other markets too? Ideally want to jump on UK horse racing arbs if possible.

Many thanks for sharing this opportunity and for helping :)
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CptShark
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CptShark

Re: Arbing Opportunities on Mobile
« Reply #7 on: February 04, 2020, 05:16:10 PM »

What is the subscription price?
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cortomaltese
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cortomaltese

Re: Arbing Opportunities on Mobile
« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2020, 10:36:58 AM »

Interesting ! so this piece of software can predict accurately that a price "WILL" fall!
Then why don't just back it on Betfair and then lay it later there, you would avoid being limited that way!
If the price is already lower in BF then this is just an arb alert and NOT an odd predicting AI machine!
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: Arbing Opportunities on Mobile
« Reply #9 on: February 05, 2020, 11:51:28 AM »

Interesting ! so this piece of software can predict accurately that a price "WILL" fall!
Then why don't just back it on Betfair and then lay it later there, you would avoid being limited that way!
If the price is already lower in BF then this is just an arb alert and NOT an odd predicting AI machine!

You are perfectly right. And they claim that you can cashout at the bookie because price will fall. Sure it will fall because the bookie finally will reflect fair odds which are exchange odds. Horse racing arbitrage is the oldest thing. And since its the oldest its the first to limit your account.
But the bright side is this is a new alert service and we need as many as possible. I congratulate you for your work and for getting in this competitive sphere. We know how hard it is.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2020, 12:10:26 PM by Wolfie » Logged
ArbController
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Re: Arbing Opportunities on Mobile
« Reply #10 on: February 05, 2020, 12:36:34 PM »

Hello, I have decided to take the plunge and give the Arbshooters VIP club a go. The service state they offer more alerts and much faster for VIPs.

VIPs are offered around 100 Arb alerts every month (pretty crazy!). It's currently costing £50 pm. I don't know if it's worth it yet, only time will tell and I'm prepared to give it a full-on go. If I don't find continued value in this price dropping software then I will cancel the subscription immediately. However, the free trial did go very well so fingers crossed.

I'll update everyone on how my first month of VIP Arb shooters are going, along with some harder stats (number of arb alerts receive, ROI's, profits, etc.)

It seems more alerts are sent over Fri-Sunday so let's see what this week brings!  ;D

All the best
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balls of steele
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balls of steele

Re: Arbing Opportunities on Mobile
« Reply #11 on: February 05, 2020, 08:03:25 PM »

Could you explain how can you predict the odds going down, or is it just a magic formula?

It is a magic formula then, in a thread where the owners (or affiliates?) of the services are talking to each other.
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SuperSquirrel
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SuperSquirrel

Re: Arbing Opportunities on Mobile
« Reply #12 on: February 06, 2020, 04:13:36 PM »

Perfect! I am currently doing the free trial and it's going well. I managed to jump on two (2) Arb alerts, ROI 30% grabbing me £34 profit. Solid!  ;D

I noticed the Arbshooter alerts tend to be on horse racing from the USA tracks. Is it only USA horse racing or other markets too? Ideally want to jump on UK horse racing arbs if possible.

Many thanks for sharing this opportunity and for helping :)

Hey, I just read your replies,

SOLID! Nice one, hope you make the most of the opportunity. As we know with a lot of arbing opportunities, they don't really last forever. Someone in the VIP group chat said she profited £94 the other night, from a singular arb -  :-X

The software seems to predominately produce massive arbs on horse racing, but there was a short period where we received decent (10% ish) ROI's on Ice Hockey.

Let us know how your first week of VIP alerts go..

Some extra tips.

1. On Betfair exchange, log in and go to settings. You'll see an option to increase the lay odds refresh rate down to 1 second. By default, it's on 15 seconds. That should help you spot a lower lay price, faster.

2. Watch the race live steams. You will notice the race doesn't normally begin at the time stated on Betfair, so you actually have more time to lay a bet then initially thought.

3. If you haven't already. Contact Betfair live chat support and ask them to put you onto their 2% commission plan. This margin saving really adds up when you're constantly arbing.

Happy Arb-Shooting  :D
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SuperSquirrel
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SuperSquirrel

Re: Arbing Opportunities on Mobile
« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2020, 04:23:04 PM »

Interesting ! so this piece of software can predict accurately that a price "WILL" fall!
Then why don't just back it on Betfair and then lay it later there, you would avoid being limited that way!
If the price is already lower in BF then this is just an arb alert and NOT an odd predicting AI machine!

Hello  :)

Yes, in my experience the accuracy in predicting the price fall has been 100%. In some cases, I have seen the price "trickle" down in dropping. For example bookie price going from 15.00 to 9.00 ... but some people manage to grab a price of say 11.00 - which then eventually falls to 9, as predicted.

You can certainly go ahead and place a back bet in Betfair's exchange and then wait for the lay to (expectedly) drop and lock in a profit. Great benefits (no restrictions/gubbings) However, the margins you make will be smaller, and it's not guaranteed that the back bet will get matched. This isn't the worse case, as you can have the option to have your back bet automatically canceled if no one accepts the back price before the event starts.

This is a genuine technique, but the success rate of kinda low and margin is like 2-15%. It's a very good and simple strategy, but I don't need to do this at the moment as my bookie accounts are in good health.

Good spot, and thanks for sharing!
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ArbController
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Re: Arbing Opportunities on Mobile
« Reply #14 on: February 18, 2020, 01:34:09 PM »

Hello Arbers. So after 7-full days of Arbshooters, I have the following results.


1. Total Profit £156.50
2. Average return 27%
3. 29 Arbs Alerts (I only managed to jump on 14 alerts)
4. 5/29 were drifters (loss £24.32)

Pro's

It's definitely worth it and I will continue to see how far I can take it. Currently placing £20-30 stakes and increasing it to £50 now that my confidence is up and I'm handling the odd drifter better.

I am placing mug bets along the way, at high odds so I can "lose" more with the bookmaker and therefore win in the exchanges.

Some new things I'll begin to do

1. Underlay more often. I saw 4/14 horses win and when the back odds are over 7.0 it's worth it I reckon.
2. Start going for more value bets using this service. Seen one arb at odds of 20, dropping to 9.0!

Cons

1. I'm worried that taking so much value from bookies will eventually lead to gubbings. VIP members from Australia benefit largely as the government has a law in place that bookmakers must still accept bet winnings up to $1,000. Shame the UK doesn't support us the same way.

2. Sometimes the price drops too quickly before I can even get on the arbs, so it can feel frustrating.

I find this to be significantly profitable for anyone to try, but I don't get the feeling this will be around for too long. I may be wrong  :D
« Last Edit: February 18, 2020, 01:35:44 PM by ArbController » Logged
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