Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence

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mr3333
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mr3333

Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence
« on: January 24, 2020, 02:52:50 PM »

Hello, ive read the forum for some time and its been a great help and im now looking to hopefully contribute with what i can and ask for advice.

Yes the topic is a little bit exagerrated but im wondering about your opinion.
I started go fulltime arbing 2018 in the summer, i live in a scandinavian country and made from the summer to the last of decemeber about 50k euro ONLY prematch arbing, about 6-8k a month. Yes that was when smarkets hade their zero percent offer and it was a goldmine. As a newbie (atleast first time quitting my job to live of gambling) and wanted a steady pay valuebetting wasnt anything on my mind even tho i noticed all the money ended up on the softbook as it eventually always does.

Fast forward to january 1st 2019 there is a new regulation in my country (yes you may know which one) and only betfair is now avalilable with a 6.5 commision. Hence my prematch style of arbing is pretty impossible. Read more and more about valuebetting and started to realise that was the only solution if i didnt want to end up att a wothless job again. So back when all the big leagues started in august i return with the mindset of making valuebetting my bread and butter.

Again i made about 30k euro in 5 months from august till 31st of december 2019. But here is the point, in mid november i started to watch for arb against pinnacle and didnt cover arbs at pinnacle and im in a HUGE downswing for me. 8k down now as we speak and that is since i implemented to watch for arbs against the pinnacle, before that i only had the exchange as a reference for value and that was extremly profitable.

Now for some questions after i shared my story as new to the forum, is pinnacle really that sharp anymore? And the second question, what to do when you hit a downswing, my confidence is at an all time low and im even scared to bet at all at the moment, i had a streak on the opening on australian open where i lost 24 out of 28 singles on winners. insane for me. You experinced guys in the business do you have som advice on mindset and so on, really need some tips since its really not something the average joe knows about. What do you do when you go like 2 months just down down. And is filtration a lot more important with pinnacle? With the exchange i feel confident but with pinnacle i wonder if im even betting value anymore. Share with me your downswings if you want and how you handled it, feeling lost and scared to bet at the moment.

Is there more scandinavians at the forum feel free to PM if you wanna discuss this business.
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arvan
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arvan

Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence
« Reply #1 on: January 24, 2020, 04:27:21 PM »

Hello,variance is part of the game,you can easily check possible downswings by using simulators/calculators.I am not experienced yet with any kind of betting but i play poker for a living last 6 years and i know very well that variance can be a beast.For betting,i think it depends on the average odds and stake system.Do you track your value bets?May we know your current sample since you started,roi average odds and stake system?About pinnacle i cant really help you,i am newbish too and i am testing now a live value bet strategy which doesnt use pinnacle odds at all.Actually i think that i beat live pinnacle odds but my sample is still small for safe conclusions(320 bets including many markets like corners etc).My average odds are 1,35 and i didnt face any serious swing so far.My advice for you is to reduce stake and check your betting history.I track everything with details,so i know f.e that i have negative roi at under/over market and i reduced my stake to 20% of normal till i have better sample.Then of course there are some general advice for everyone who gambles for a living.https://www.mypokercoaching.com/poker-variance-mindset-tips/  Ignore the poker related advice and read the rest,its the same for any kind of gambling.
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mr3333
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mr3333

Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence
« Reply #2 on: January 24, 2020, 08:10:45 PM »

Thank you for the response alot of interesting information, i will surely read the link. And yes you are totally right about the poker variance that can be brutal, its actually quite similar. I also played a couple a years ago and to not tilt is half the game.
I think it boils down to not knowing if im on the right track or not since starting to use pinnacle. Will have to do some deep filtering etc and see if there is any patterns that can be fixable.

I´ve always been confident that if you beat the exchange you will make money, especially the liquids market i often trade at, but with pinnacle there is so many small liquidity markets that the lines moves fast, especially on the smaller ones. Alot of research has to be done and will probably go back to my old ways in the meantime since som confidence has to get back.

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Samael
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Samael

Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence
« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2020, 02:51:56 PM »

Im quite intereted to see bets from your australian open losing streak.

I dont do value so i dont know if you people are ok with sharing that,i would ask in private but seems that they blocked PMs
(i havent log in a while)
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pythonic
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pythonic

Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence
« Reply #4 on: January 27, 2020, 11:50:46 AM »

Be careful, don't just blindly take for granted that a value betting strategy you applied in one sport with one reference would work out the same way in another sport with another  reference. There are many ways how this could go wrong. Analyse your betting records with statistics, plots, simulators and so on to see if you can tell apart chance and systematic differences. And start small with new, untested strategies before you go all in with big stakes. Good luck!
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mr3333
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mr3333

Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence
« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2020, 02:03:12 PM »

Thanks for the responses.
This weekend i went back to my old style of arbing/valuebetting and it was a success, felt really good to finally make some money again.
I think my problem is that ive taken early lines on pinnacle and on small markets, so i think i havent had much of value.
With my succesful strategy i do the bets on the same day as the event almost everytime and often just 4-6 hours away as the most difference. With pinnacle i took bets day/days before and that feels really stupid since its also been on many sports im not particularly good at. It also could be bad variance and i will investigate further.

A question to the forum, how many bets do you average a month? Im thinking of you guys who does a lot of valuebetting, quantity over quality? Small valuebets or just wait for juicy ones? 
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dragspyr59
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dragspyr59

Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence
« Reply #6 on: January 27, 2020, 02:13:18 PM »

i use 2 bookies
manual live valuebetting
30 bets each per day 60 total (weekends 80), i use many many many many many accounts
100 euro bet flat stake
16,3% ROI on 1st bookie and 18,7% ROI on the 2nd
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barnstorm
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barnstorm

Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence
« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2020, 02:24:22 PM »

i use 2 bookies
manual live valuebetting
30 bets each per day 60 total (weekends 80), i use many many many many many accounts
100 euro bet flat stake
16,3% ROI on 1st bookie and 18,7% ROI on the 2nd

Nice. Live, manual betting! Are you using a service to identify Live Value bets or are you evaluating value yourself? How do you do this? Odds change so fast. Sometimes you can submit bet after bet and it keeps rejecting it because the odds have changed. Maybe when there is a timeout or break in the action, the odds are more stable. What sports are you betting? What type of bet? Soccer over/under? Soccer moneylines? Other exotic wagers?

GL!
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dragspyr59
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dragspyr59

Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence
« Reply #8 on: January 27, 2020, 03:14:46 PM »

You have to know the market and the bookies well in order to choose the filters
I use a service as everybody else.

But the most important filter is YOU
I can find almost 100 live values every day but i place only half of them.

For example...if you find on a Bucks game a valuebet in under/over market (value on under) for god sake donttttt....stay away. There are teams who choose to play run and gun and destroy the value you have found.

Learn your market/sport choose your filters and success will come

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kapetan1122
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kapetan1122

Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence
« Reply #9 on: January 27, 2020, 03:32:12 PM »

Im quite intereted to see bets from your australian open losing streak.

I dont do value so i dont know if you people are ok with sharing that,i would ask in private but seems that they blocked PMs
(i havent log in a while)

I will just tell you that pinni is not sharp at tennis matches for longer period of time,specially you can see this in handicap and U/O markets,there was so many matches this AO that they inverted odds on hand,U/O lets say they open O 37.5 with odds 2.1 and when match start odds on U get to be 2.1 or more,most of the people dont know that when match goes live(just before first point is played) odds can again swing so drastic that sometimes hand -4.5 can go from odds 2.1 goes to 2.3 to +4.5,and in my expirience live odds are sharpest at pinnacle case.
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Samael
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Samael

Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence
« Reply #10 on: January 27, 2020, 04:28:52 PM »

Im quite intereted to see bets from your australian open losing streak.

I dont do value so i dont know if you people are ok with sharing that,i would ask in private but seems that they blocked PMs
(i havent log in a while)

I will just tell you that pinni is not sharp at tennis matches for longer period of time,specially you can see this in handicap and U/O markets,there was so many matches this AO that they inverted odds on hand,U/O lets say they open O 37.5 with odds 2.1 and when match start odds on U get to be 2.1 or more,most of the people dont know that when match goes live(just before first point is played) odds can again swing so drastic that sometimes hand -4.5 can go from odds 2.1 goes to 2.3 to +4.5,and in my expirience live odds are sharpest at pinnacle case.

Even on Grand slams o/u is 1k limit market and easier to push around and manipulate.

I dont see much importance in inverted odd you write about,in O/U its more about the line they set then the odds in this market
(blatant example if isner and karlovic play at slam i would take over 44.0 regardless is it 1.60 or 1.90,because its simply wrong line on
that two players)

They are sharp enough believe me,there are some great examples with Gojowczyk this slam how good their lines and predictions can be
i would pm you that but there is no more pm unfortunately.
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mr3333
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mr3333

Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence
« Reply #11 on: January 27, 2020, 06:11:59 PM »

Great discussion.

Are they sharp on their inplay corner markets? I see a ton arbs against pinny live on their cornermarkets but have placed very few bets on it to come to a conclussion yet.

Regarding the tennis it was against the exchange so can not say how pinny is there. It was 95% bets on the underdog, seems like no favorite lost in the opening round..
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dragspyr59
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dragspyr59

Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence
« Reply #12 on: January 27, 2020, 07:03:07 PM »

Corner market?
there are 2 types
under/over and handicap

you must have the ability to read the match

I ll make you an example
Bayern Munich-Olympiakos
at half time 0-0 there was value at under/over 10.5
i took it as i was hoping for an early goal...but Bayern was attacking attacking attacking without scoring. until they scored at 69th minute
from half time till 69th minute the sum of corners went to 12....i ve lost my bet.
from 70th minute until the end they continue to attack but without ferocity as they where already winning
final result 14-1
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Samael
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Samael

Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence
« Reply #13 on: January 28, 2020, 07:36:43 AM »

Great discussion.

Are they sharp on their inplay corner markets? I see a ton arbs against pinny live on their cornermarkets but have placed very few bets on it to come to a conclussion yet.

Regarding the tennis it was against the exchange so can not say how pinny is there. It was 95% bets on the underdog, seems like no favorite lost in the opening round..

From my personal experience,grand slams are not ideal for underdogs.
There will be some underdog winners sure,but if you take too much volume and bet everything,this is event where you can get burned.
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mr3333
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mr3333

Re: Valuebetting - variance killing my confidence
« Reply #14 on: January 28, 2020, 01:25:11 PM »

Great discussion.

Are they sharp on their inplay corner markets? I see a ton arbs against pinny live on their cornermarkets but have placed very few bets on it to come to a conclussion yet.

Regarding the tennis it was against the exchange so can not say how pinny is there. It was 95% bets on the underdog, seems like no favorite lost in the opening round..

From my personal experience,grand slams are not ideal for underdogs.
There will be some underdog winners sure,but if you take too much volume and bet everything,this is event where you can get burned.


Yes noticed that too. I´ve been valuebetting tennis for 7-8 months so im a newbie on it and will be more careful in the future on the slams. Have had success on it before but this made me really put a break on it for the rest of the tournament. But it was probably just a bad run also because i beat the exchange with a lot of margin. The whole january were a total disaster regarding tennis for me. 
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