What staking plan are you using?

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LazyBird
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LazyBird

What staking plan are you using?
« on: February 22, 2020, 11:30:42 AM »

I've recently started to move away from arbing and am even doing much less value betting with soft bookmakers. The accounts just aren't lasting anymore. I'm now focusing more time and energy on value betting with exchanges. The edge is lower but the staking freedom and account security make it the better choice for me right now. In the arbing world staking plans don't come with the same level of detail or flexibility as with value betting with exchanges or high limit sharps, largely due to the fact that the limits really restrict your freedom to implement many staking plans.

I've decided to use a simple percentage based staking plan for now, using ratchet staking, which has been serving me well. I would like at some point to start to customize my stakes more based on expected value, and I'm wondering if many of you guys use the Kelly criterion method for calculating stake sizes? I'm very skeptical about any staking plans which compound stakes based on wins or losses as it feels too much like real gambling to me even if the value is there, not to mention the volatility. Still, I'm curious if anyone has been using any such methods?

As I said, coming more from a background of playing on restricted accounts with soft bookmakers, my staking plan usually came down to betting whatever my max was, and this new found staking freedom has made me very interested to hear what kind of staking plans everyone is using!
« Last Edit: February 22, 2020, 11:32:44 AM by LazyBird » Logged
Samael
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Samael

Re: What staking plan are you using?
« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2020, 05:43:57 PM »

When it comes to math i can only count numbers and thats it.You need more common sense and awareness then math
when it comes to staking.  numbers that come out of your bets need somewhat stable curve and thats somewhat hard as
in the beggining you are still exploring (and getting burned often).

For some lower markets i did,i can play agressive because i know i have higher yield there.For example bank 100e stakes 3e or 4e.
technically that ratio is quite risky but there i can get away with it.

On some sharp pinnacle markets if i do similar thing i will be done and empty in 2 months.Because when variance hits you hard
your bankroll needs to be flexible and my win ratio on bigger leagues isnt nearly as good.

Stake and yield are very related,if you can anticipate your expected yield you will know what staking plan to use.
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JamesMiller
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JamesMiller

Re: What staking plan are you using?
« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2020, 01:14:57 PM »

I like Kelly's Criterion. The formula takes into account the odds of the bet and the probability that it will win and the probability that it will lose. The only disadvantage for me of this is that there is no way of guaranteeing that money won't be lost. In fact, there is a 1/3 chance
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gamblehappier
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gamblehappier

Re: What staking plan are you using?
« Reply #3 on: April 02, 2020, 06:13:56 PM »

I believe that you should have stable staking and when you see super value ,then increase.For example if you have 100euro  your stake should be 2-5 euro but when you see huge value(more than 7/100) you can bet with 7 euro.
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arctrading
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arctrading

Re: What staking plan are you using?
« Reply #4 on: April 02, 2020, 09:29:58 PM »

I use 1% on average. With the exception of Small, Average and Large. Small would be 0.5% and large 1.5-2% per bet.Could make much more money tho but keeping this way to to avoid huge swings. Altough when i did staking plan simulator then best result was from Flat staking plan(bigger swings also)
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Yngwie/Sawyer

Re: What staking plan are you using?
« Reply #5 on: April 03, 2020, 11:50:31 AM »

By the way, I don't suggest betting with a fixed risk amount in value betting. Bet to win ''x'' instead. I mean, don't bet straight 500€ on every game. Your stake should vary according to odds. If bookmaker's maximum win limit is 500€,

Odds 2.00, bet 500.
Odds 3.00, bet 250.
Odds 1.83, bet 300.
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gamblehappier
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gamblehappier

Re: What staking plan are you using?
« Reply #6 on: April 03, 2020, 03:25:26 PM »

Lets say that you have 5000$.
2.50 odds and lower.:Bet valuebets with stakes 100-130 you will be ok.But when you find something super value,i believe that you should increase your stake to 200 because maths say the true.

2.50 odds and higher:You should decrease your stake to 40-50 ,even if your bet has a lot of value.
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mita8888
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mita8888

Re: What staking plan are you using?
« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2020, 01:25:46 PM »

hi. do you have a good result when do valuebetting with exchange? What is your benchmark to determine the "value"?
I use kelly because of the software have automated kelly staking plan, if asked, i personally chose bankroll percentage staking method, its more simple, but it depend on your odds. I bet on asians, so most of the time, the odds range are 1.70-2.30
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macola
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macola

Re: What staking plan are you using?
« Reply #8 on: April 15, 2020, 05:21:17 PM »

higher value higher stake makes sense?
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gamblehappier
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gamblehappier

Re: What staking plan are you using?
« Reply #9 on: April 16, 2020, 12:22:36 AM »

higher value higher stake makes sense?
Yes in general makes sense.If you find value 20+/100(but real value) it is not wrong to bet 10-20/100 of your capital.
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kustef
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kustef

Re: What staking plan are you using?
« Reply #10 on: April 16, 2020, 08:51:45 AM »

track your bets. calculate your ROI with flat stakes and also submited stakes. If submitted stakes ROI is higher than flat ROI than you doing good. basically you need to bet more on big values
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arctrading
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arctrading

Re: What staking plan are you using?
« Reply #11 on: April 16, 2020, 01:40:02 PM »

By the way, I don't suggest betting with a fixed risk amount in value betting. Bet to win ''x'' instead. I mean, don't bet straight 500€ on every game. Your stake should vary according to odds. If bookmaker's maximum win limit is 500€,

Odds 2.00, bet 500.
Odds 3.00, bet 250.
Odds 1.83, bet 300.

I disagree with that as a general suggestions. It depends a lot on the current strategy. For my strategy, if i ran a simulator, "to win" staking plan was least successfull. Most success had % staking plan and then flat. But as i said it all depends on chosen strategy, for some works one thing and for others, different.
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gamblehappier
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gamblehappier

Re: What staking plan are you using?
« Reply #12 on: April 19, 2020, 07:01:31 PM »

i believe that flat staking is not suitable for every betting.Of course it depends from the style of the player.But,it does not makes sense to hit with 100$ +3/100 value and same money bet for 13/100 value
13/100 is much more value.Better to hit first odds with 70$ and the second with 130$.
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cigo
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cigo

Re: What staking plan are you using?
« Reply #13 on: April 19, 2020, 08:08:24 PM »

i believe that flat staking is not suitable for every betting.Of course it depends from the style of the player.But,it does not makes sense to hit with 100$ +3/100 value and same money bet for 13/100 value
13/100 is much more value.Better to hit first odds with 70$ and the second with 130$.

just press max bet on any value you see, only that value is positive
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