Covid19 and betting

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neopas
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neopas

Covid19 and betting
« on: February 23, 2020, 06:28:56 PM »

Prepare for it.
I see the panic in Italy and I cant see how this will stop in just one country. If it deteriorates I m sure that many championships will stop.
The best-case scenario is championships to continue like before but with no fans attending.
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dealer wins
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Re: Covid19 and betting
« Reply #1 on: February 23, 2020, 10:01:59 PM »

As an "oldie" it would be quite nice to have a few months off lol
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Never trust a goose!!!
NDR
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Re: Covid19 and betting
« Reply #2 on: February 23, 2020, 10:21:45 PM »

as it comes so "close", i begin to worry...

what if its get an real pandemic in central europe...

btw. walking dead season 10B starts today ;D
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pls excuse my bad english
Mtipster
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Re: Covid19 and betting
« Reply #3 on: February 23, 2020, 11:28:31 PM »

I don't get the fuss. Mortality rate is lower than regular influenza.
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Wolfie
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Re: Covid19 and betting
« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2020, 09:22:27 AM »

I don't get the fuss. Mortality rate is lower than regular influenza.

The real formula is death divided by number of infected people. So recovery rate is 90% and death rate is 10%. Which is alarming. So if you get coronavirus you have 10% chance of dying. While if you get influenza you have almost no chance of dying.
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arbusers
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Re: Covid19 and betting
« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2020, 09:35:38 AM »

I m not happy to say this, but I expect panic to spread into Italy and then to all European countries within the next days. You simply can't put a country like Italy in quarantine in the same way as Wuhan. The ability of several governments to handle situations like this is seriously questioned.
As I see it, the virus is spreading in the Middle East where no stats are kept. Rogue countries that actively support illegal immigration will happily pass the problem from one side of the Aegean to the other.
In addition, I still see flights from Far East countries landing in the rest of the world.

As a side note. I remember some very well known UK bookmakers offering bets for the 2004 Tsunami in Indonesia, it was death toll over/under 400.000. I m surprised they don't do something similar right now, or is it a matter of time?

I don't get the fuss. Mortality rate is lower than regular influenza.

That is a wrong assumption because you cant compare contamination rates.
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Littletroll1
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Re: Covid19 and betting
« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2020, 12:24:46 PM »

I don't get the fuss. Mortality rate is lower than regular influenza.

The real formula is death divided by number of infected people. So recovery rate is 90% and death rate is 10%. Which is alarming. So if you get coronavirus you have 10% chance of dying. While if you get influenza you have almost no chance of dying.

Sorry, but that's not true. Death rate is only 2.3% overall. And since most of us in here are probably below 50 years, the death rate is only at 0.04%.
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Wolfie
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Re: Covid19 and betting
« Reply #7 on: February 25, 2020, 12:33:01 PM »


Sorry, but that's not true. Death rate is only 2.3% overall. And since most of us in here are probably below 50 years, the death rate is only at 0.04%.

You should not be sorry we should be glad if thats not true.
But my data is from here. See closed cases.
Deaths divided by cases which had an outcome.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR29NTFiyhm4XvMNBrEIdNsPy_tD44RFWMAT1HA63AO62yB8FMaJJPtMAKI
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arbusers
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Re: Covid19 and betting
« Reply #8 on: February 25, 2020, 12:36:52 PM »

Sorry, but that's not true. Death rate is only 2.3% overall. And since most of us in here are probably below 50 years, the death rate is only at 0.04%.

This is questioned really. This is what China announced, I m not sure if we should trust these statistics. Better calculate mortality based on the Italian stats that will be more reliable. So far, Italy reported 229 cases and 7 deaths. This leads to a mortality rate of 3.05%, but this should be the starting point as cases exploded only 4-5 days ago in the country.
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Wolfie
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Wolfie

Re: Covid19 and betting
« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2020, 12:44:35 PM »

Prepare for it.
I see the panic in Italy and I cant see how this will stop in just one country. If it deteriorates I m sure that many championships will stop.
The best-case scenario is championships to continue like before but with no fans attending.

Turning to your original point i see championships stopping if it becomes pandemic. No fans attending would be best option for us but i do not think it will happen since if it becomes pandemic players will not be in their top form with fear from traveling and all the rest. Lets hope it turns up well for this human lives at first and than for business.
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Littletroll1
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Re: Covid19 and betting
« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2020, 12:50:47 PM »


Sorry, but that's not true. Death rate is only 2.3% overall. And since most of us in here are probably below 50 years, the death rate is only at 0.04%.

You should not be sorry we should be glad if thats not true.
But my data is from here. See closed cases.
Deaths divided by cases which had an outcome.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR29NTFiyhm4XvMNBrEIdNsPy_tD44RFWMAT1HA63AO62yB8FMaJJPtMAKI

You can't use the number under closed cases, as it's not the correct way of calculating mortality rates. It should be deaths divided by total cases. So 2707 / 80,348 = 3%.

Most likely it's less though, because many people would have the virus without feeling many symptoms. WHO estimates it's 2%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#nhc
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who
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Littletroll1
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Re: Covid19 and betting
« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2020, 12:54:44 PM »

Sorry, but that's not true. Death rate is only 2.3% overall. And since most of us in here are probably below 50 years, the death rate is only at 0.04%.

This is questioned really. This is what China announced, I m not sure if we should trust these statistics. Better calculate mortality based on the Italian stats that will be more reliable. So far, Italy reported 229 cases and 7 deaths. This leads to a mortality rate of 3.05%, but this should be the starting point as cases exploded only 4-5 days ago in the country.

It's pure speculation whether Chinese facts are correct or not and I agree that Italy will be more reliable, but at this point they just don't have enough confirmed cases to be of any statistical significance.
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Wolfie
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Re: Covid19 and betting
« Reply #12 on: February 25, 2020, 01:08:52 PM »


Sorry, but that's not true. Death rate is only 2.3% overall. And since most of us in here are probably below 50 years, the death rate is only at 0.04%.

You should not be sorry we should be glad if thats not true.
But my data is from here. See closed cases.
Deaths divided by cases which had an outcome.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR29NTFiyhm4XvMNBrEIdNsPy_tD44RFWMAT1HA63AO62yB8FMaJJPtMAKI

You can't use the number under closed cases, as it's not the correct way of calculating mortality rates. It should be deaths divided by total cases. So 2707 / 80,348 = 3%.

Most likely it's less though, because many people would have the virus without feeling many symptoms. WHO estimates it's 2%.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#nhc
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who

WHO may have its own reason to calculate it like this. What i personally calculate is under closed cases. Because to open cases we do not know what will happen. So i calculate probability of recovering and probability of dying based on closed cases. If you think that no one from open cases (18% of which are on critical conditions) will die than your formula based on god will is correct.
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campeones
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Re: Covid19 and betting
« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2020, 12:18:02 PM »

Things don't look good I m afraid. There is panic spread all over Europe.
First, it was about masks, now it is about supermarkets.
It is very sad to see Italy handling the case like a failed state and all other European countries falling like a domino.
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Re: Covid19 and betting
« Reply #14 on: February 29, 2020, 10:34:26 AM »

Things don't look good I m afraid. There is panic spread all over Europe.
First, it was about masks, now it is about supermarkets.
It is very sad to see Italy handling the case like a failed state and all other European countries falling like a domino.

The real threat for Europe is not virus, it's the refugees!
Immigration of The Tribes 2 in history.
« Last Edit: February 29, 2020, 10:40:37 AM by Yngwie/Sawyer » Logged
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