NBA Value Betting

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nas1212
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nas1212

NBA Value Betting
« on: February 27, 2020, 03:14:57 AM »

I have heard from a few long timers that value betting on the NBA has not been good, especially as off late.
For those who are actively value betting on NBA or have in the past, could you please share your thoughts?

I am not interested in opinions based on theory so please contribute only if you have experience yourself or know someone who does. I am aware that it Pinnacle is technically the 'king' of NBA and therefore value betting here should be amazing, but from what I am hearing the results are quiet different.

Thanks
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macola
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Re: NBA Value Betting
« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2020, 06:32:44 AM »

Pinnacle is far from sharp in NBA live valuebetting...

There are some edges in NBA games, with some nice value
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Re: NBA Value Betting
« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2020, 02:03:39 PM »

I don't suggest value betting in NBA.

NBA is where amazing happens. I witnessed many crazy things in my arbitrage career so my advice is, if you have a NBA arb, just hedge it! Even Miami Heat without Wade&Lebron can beat Spurs on the road.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 10:25:48 AM by Yngwie/Sawyer » Logged
Samael
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Re: NBA Value Betting
« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2020, 05:32:13 AM »

i bet nba casually.To be honest i think i would need 2 more years of constant betting and research to get some kind of grip on that.
Lot of puzzling things and line movements and i tend to make more bets then i should.

I had some success on trend overs.My favourite was Milwaukee 1st half over points,and it took a lot for lines to catch up with that.
They were torching teams in first half and they would kinda slow down in 2nd half.So lines on Milwaukee full match were usually quite sharp
but 1st half were giveaways as they would score 57-60 on almost anyone.

Underdogs like Warriors,Bulls.Anyone who hopped on Memphis train while they were hot.
Philadephia was bad at covering spreads..

Thats about it what i can think of.I had some good bets but still ended in red.

If you meant valuebetting,by simply softs vs sharps i dont know about that.
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arbusers
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Re: NBA Value Betting
« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2020, 09:59:36 AM »

Milwaukee Bucks co-owner interviewed by CNBC hopes NBA will be back by June.
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Re: NBA Value Betting
« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2020, 10:37:47 AM »

i bet nba casually.To be honest i think i would need 2 more years of constant betting and research to get some kind of grip on that.
Lot of puzzling things and line movements and i tend to make more bets then i should.

I had some success on trend overs.My favourite was Milwaukee 1st half over points,and it took a lot for lines to catch up with that.
They were torching teams in first half and they would kinda slow down in 2nd half.So lines on Milwaukee full match were usually quite sharp
but 1st half were giveaways as they would score 57-60 on almost anyone.

Underdogs like Warriors,Bulls.Anyone who hopped on Memphis train while they were hot.
Philadephia was bad at covering spreads..

Thats about it what i can think of.I had some good bets but still ended in red.

If you meant valuebetting,by simply softs vs sharps i dont know about that.

I'm a ''retired'' NBA Professional Handicapper   ;D

I agree with you, I think key to beat NBA is to focus on totals, specially overs. Side betting is very tricky in NBA. NBA market is getting more sharper each year. NBA betting was much different 15 years ago.

Totals are easier to beat specially 1st Half Overs. I used to have a 1st Half Over system in the past. Don't get excited! It was 12 years ago. Some bookmakers were offering 1/2 of the total line for 1st half bet. I mean let's say Houston Rockets playing versus Golden State Warriors and game total is 220. Pinnacle's 1st half line was 115 instead of 110 since more points were expected to score at first half. These poor bookmakers were offering 110 for first half, lol. The Win rate was over %70! Unfortunately, these bookmakers woke up later but damage was done  :D

Ah, I miss those olden but golden days of gambling. There were many tricks and strategies. Nowadays, there's almost none. They covered everything..Well, except arbing  :D
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Samael
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Re: NBA Value Betting
« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2020, 01:29:54 PM »

i bet nba casually.To be honest i think i would need 2 more years of constant betting and research to get some kind of grip on that.
Lot of puzzling things and line movements and i tend to make more bets then i should.

I had some success on trend overs.My favourite was Milwaukee 1st half over points,and it took a lot for lines to catch up with that.
They were torching teams in first half and they would kinda slow down in 2nd half.So lines on Milwaukee full match were usually quite sharp
but 1st half were giveaways as they would score 57-60 on almost anyone.

Underdogs like Warriors,Bulls.Anyone who hopped on Memphis train while they were hot.
Philadephia was bad at covering spreads..

Thats about it what i can think of.I had some good bets but still ended in red.

If you meant valuebetting,by simply softs vs sharps i dont know about that.

I'm a ''retired'' NBA Professional Handicapper   ;D

I agree with you, I think key to beat NBA is to focus on totals, specially overs. Side betting is very tricky in NBA. NBA market is getting more sharper each year. NBA betting was much different 15 years ago.

Totals are easier to beat specially 1st Half Overs. I used to have a 1st Half Over system in the past. Don't get excited! It was 12 years ago. Some bookmakers were offering 1/2 of the total line for 1st half bet. I mean let's say Houston Rockets playing versus Golden State Warriors and game total is 220. Pinnacle's 1st half line was 115 instead of 110 since more points were expected to score at first half. These poor bookmakers were offering 110 for first half, lol. The Win rate was over %70! Unfortunately, these bookmakers woke up later but damage was done  :D

Ah, I miss those olden but golden days of gambling. There were many tricks and strategies. Nowadays, there's almost none. They covered everything..Well, except arbing  :D

https://www.espn.com/blog/playbook/dollars/post/_/id/2935/meet-the-worlds-top-nba-gambler

I just remembered this article very related to that.

Yes they got lot better setting lines obviously,but its hard to adjust 1st quarters,1st half with overall total points
so there are still advantages.Milwaukee this year was great example as they become that "great regular team"
somewhat similar to Warriors prior.

Key to Nba betting is to read situations and react quickly.
Form and swings change so fast,team that was great for overs now wont be great in 2 weeks when lines catch up.

Despite some people having succesful models,i think game knowledge and adapting your style is so important.
Also picking up what certain teams do well/bad (Lakers great at picknroll defense,Boston great defense but lacks size inside etc).
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