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S&P500 value zones identified

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Re: S&P500 value zones identified

Sun Apr 26, 2020 8:07 am

balls of steele wrote: I do not see any value in arbusers posts. More or less it is a simple coverage of the market. I could have the same just by watching CNBC or CNN, where at least the girls are pretty.
A successful prediction from arbusers should include an entry point on March 23rd or near that date. We have seen a 35% rally since that date and arbusers is still staying in the sidelines.
Pretty much is the same with his analysis on the Greek stock market where he lost a 3 years move from 2016 to 2019.
You do understand that this rally is totally fake right? I mean the only buyer is the FED, the retails do not have the buying power to pop the stock market so much and the professionals are selling to the FED. Maybe we have lost a move but this is only the beginning. Every politician try to calm people down in order to not start doing crazy stuff and central banks have start this artificial pump in asset prices. Maybe this show can continue to infinity but the question is, do you want to participate in that corrupted market which is not free anymore? The babyboomers will start to retire in masses in 1-2 years from now, they will be a selling force in markets until they die. The new generations do not have the money to buy the inflated assets and many of them go to non-traditional assets because are cheaper(crypto). Maybe i am wrong here but i don't want to be part in this shit show.
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified

Mon Apr 27, 2020 10:09 pm


The stock markets are all fake and not real these days. It's all manipulated by Governments and central banks buying stocks and printing money.

House prices could fall by more than ever. That's something to keep an eye on.
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified

Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:16 am

The stock market is not fake but i believe it is possible to manipulated by super rich people.I will better say that is a place for rich to get even richer.So maybe the secret is follow the money?

Index funds like S&P500,Vanguard500 etc,will never fell in the long run.The same happen for the best branded stocks,best etfs,best indices etc..

So the key?We buy S&P500,VOO and and all famous stocks and indices when they fell for a global reason(coronovirus,economic crisis) and we hold for a long run( for years).This is winning strategy as the stocks keep rising in the longrun(like S&P500 in our example).

Arbusers continue nice analysis here  :)
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified

Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:30 am

[glow=red,2,300]The stock market is completely fake. We are in for the worst economic crisis since the great depression of the 1930's but yet the s&p 500 and ftse 100 are in bull market territory and have had 20-25%+ gains since March. It makes no sense unless you dig deeper and see it's down to the Central Banks printing and injecting trillions of dollars in to the economy to prop it up.

Stock market is 100% fake.

[/glow]
Last edited by DPG on Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified

Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:48 pm

gamblehappier wrote: The stock market is not fake but i believe it is possible to manipulated by super rich people.I will better say that is a place for rich to get even richer.So maybe the secret is follow the money?

Index funds like S&P500,Vanguard500 etc,will never fell in the long run.The same happen for the best branded stocks,best etfs,best indices etc..

So the key?We buy S&P500,VOO and and all famous stocks and indices when they fell for a global reason(coronovirus,economic crisis) and we hold for a long run( for years).This is winning strategy as the stocks keep rising in the longrun(like S&P500 in our example).

Arbusers continue nice analysis here  :)
For now, the stock markets are manipulated by the Fed. The freshly printed trillions of Dollars are golden parachutes for failed companies, shareholders, and fund managers.
Value investing is a safe way to go for those who can't or don't want to jump in the day to day trading. Personally, value investing is one of my 4 criteria before investing. It is not correct to say that some indexes or stocks will never fall. We have seen empires going to 0.
DPG wrote: The stock market is completely fake. We are in for the worst economic crisis since the great depression of the 1930's but yet the s&p 500 and ftse 100 are in bull market territory and have had 20-25%+ gains since March. It makes no sense unless you dig deeper and see it's down to the Central Banks printing and injecting trillions of dollars in to the economy to prop it up.

Stock market is 100% fake.
Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent according to Maynard Keynes.
It is evident that we are just entering an unprecedented crisis. A crisis that will define world ''before'' and ''after''. The recent rally after March the 23rd can not be explained in any rational thinking. The only explanation is the freshly printed money by the Fed. I believe there will be a time when sober minds will understand that a junk USD is creating more problems than a junk stock market. When sober minds come to this conclusion the fall will be unstoppable.
Let me also remind you, the first leg down in 1929 crash, was followed by a 6-month rally that puzzled everyone and made them believe there is a new bull market in place. After that, the fall was ferocious.
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified

Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:40 pm

arbusers wrote:
A crisis that will define world ''before'' and ''after''.
Allow me to say, that in this case even BTC are going to be useless. The only way to survive is to fill your secret underground room with oil, wheat and water and to keep your mouth closed about that.
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified

Fri May 01, 2020 5:16 am

cem wrote: Allow me to say, that in this case even BTC are going to be useless. The only way to survive is to fill your secret underground room with oil, wheat and water and to keep your mouth closed about that.
If the financial world ends, it wouldn't matter anyway whether you invested or not. But if the world didn't end, and you didn't invest, you would miss the greatest opportunity.
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified

Mon May 04, 2020 5:46 pm

arbusers wrote:
gamblehappier wrote: The stock market is not fake but i believe it is possible to manipulated by super rich people.I will better say that is a place for rich to get even richer.So maybe the secret is follow the money?

Index funds like S&P500,Vanguard500 etc,will never fell in the long run.The same happen for the best branded stocks,best etfs,best indices etc..

So the key?We buy S&P500,VOO and and all famous stocks and indices when they fell for a global reason(coronovirus,economic crisis) and we hold for a long run( for years).This is winning strategy as the stocks keep rising in the longrun(like S&P500 in our example).

Arbusers continue nice analysis here  :)
For now, the stock markets are manipulated by the Fed. The freshly printed trillions of Dollars are golden parachutes for failed companies, shareholders, and fund managers.
Value investing is a safe way to go for those who can't or don't want to jump in the day to day trading. Personally, value investing is one of my 4 criteria before investing. It is not correct to say that some indexes or stocks will never fall. We have seen empires going to 0.
DPG wrote: The stock market is completely fake. We are in for the worst economic crisis since the great depression of the 1930's but yet the s&p 500 and ftse 100 are in bull market territory and have had 20-25%+ gains since March. It makes no sense unless you dig deeper and see it's down to the Central Banks printing and injecting trillions of dollars in to the economy to prop it up.

Stock market is 100% fake.
Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent according to Maynard Keynes.
It is evident that we are just entering an unprecedented crisis. A crisis that will define world ''before'' and ''after''. The recent rally after March the 23rd can not be explained in any rational thinking. The only explanation is the freshly printed money by the Fed. I believe there will be a time when sober minds will understand that a junk USD is creating more problems than a junk stock market. When sober minds come to this conclusion the fall will be unstoppable.
Let me also remind you, the first leg down in 1929 crash, was followed by a 6-month rally that puzzled everyone and made them believe there is a new bull market in place. After that, the fall was ferocious.
Things in the stock market are not going well now.

Arbusers,yes we have seen in the past empires collapse(Nokia),but in general at the time passes,stocks tend to go higher.Okay maybe some top empires vanish in a few years but if you bought all the top stocks(again variety,not only tech stocks) you will get profit in the long run

Actually as someone said if you buy all stock market, you will get profit in a few years(decade).General indexes of super rich countries will not fall(except we have a war).

Again i am not expert in this area,but after some google searching,i have seen that a lot of people who occupy with stock market for years,tend to agree in the above.

And also if you search the top stocks,indexes etc in 2013 you will understand that most of them go higher,and you you will have profit if you have bought and hold for 7 years.The reason?

Rich people become even richer.
Last edited by gamblehappier on Mon May 04, 2020 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified

Thu May 28, 2020 7:05 am

With S&P500 jumping well above 3000 how do you feel arbusers with a missed rally of 35%?
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified

Thu May 28, 2020 9:33 am

balls of steele wrote: With S&P500 jumping well above 3000 how do you feel arbusers with a missed rally of 35%?
"It is easy to be wise after the event".
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified

Thu May 28, 2020 9:37 am

US bank stocks like Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Morgan Chase etc are still very low compared to the rest of the market and have barely seen any recovery.  They are at levels relative to the 2008 crash even though they are much better capitalised and better equiped to handle problems now.  The reason they are still low is that their profit model is slightly in danger because of low interest rates, although those rates were very low before this crisis began.  I predict they will start a recovery as well soon (it may have already begun) and have bought a fairly large amount of this Ishares fund:

IE00BD3V0B10

It follows the US S&P900 Banks index, which IMHO is due for a recovery long term.  US bank stocks have never been cheaper compared to the rest of the market at this moment.
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified

Thu May 28, 2020 10:10 am

Alfa1234 wrote: "It is easy to be wise after the event".
And it is easy to say that "It is easy to be wise after the event". It is important to register both the winners (bitcoin) and the losers (S&P500). The smart investor will always have both, but eventually more winners than losers.

Thank you for your perception on the US bank stocks :) That is something to consider for the portfolio.
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified

Thu May 28, 2020 1:44 pm

balls of steele wrote: With S&P500 jumping well above 3000 how do you feel arbusers with a missed rally of 35%?
Before investing my hard-earned capital there are certain conditions to be met. In this situation, these conditions weren't met. I acted according to my criteria and these criteria were indicating NOT to invest.
Organisms that treat threats as more urgent than opportunities have a better chance to survive.
I am perfectly fine missing some potentials profits, and I wish good luck to anyone who is chasing them.
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified

Sat May 30, 2020 7:42 am

An astonishing rally took place since March the 23rd, taking S&P500 from 2200 to 3000. This rally is a major aberration from economic reality. It can't be explained with the classic ways that a rational analyst would read the market.
There is an elephant in the room and his name is FED causing a dichotomy of opinions. This dichotomy separates those who understand what FED is doing from those who don't understand what FED is doing. Those who understand what the FED is doing are the people with superior insight. The 5th element of a successful analyst.

To balls of steele's joy, I must say I don't have that element yet, but I m doing my best to gain it.

I would like to explain what FED and the US government is doing right now. They also have an elephant in their room and his name is 2020 US elections.

It is estimated that 55% of Americans are holding stocks. The figure includes children and the elderly. This 55% is the decisive force that will determine the outcome of the election in November 2020. The government believes that if these people are kept happy, re-election will be in place. Thus the FED is buying all toxic bonds, effectively keeping alive companies that would go under, in an action against US law. This is not just a red line, it is an offense.

But what about the 45% of people who don't hold stocks? Most of them are included in various forms of the Paycheck Protection Programs receiving up to 2.5 times their average monthly payroll during the year preceding the application. In fact, they get paid to sit at home. They get paid not to go to work. After the ease of the lockdown, most of these people didn't return at work.

All these represent a huge moral hazard. The US government is buying everyone's vote in a sneaky and indirect way. I am surprised to say, that the only difference between the communist previous Greek PM Alexis Tsipras, and the current capitalist US President Donald Trump, is that Tsipras had the Germans stopping him from providing incentives to people who in the end didn't want to work.

This is not the first time we notice a phenomenon like this. Over the years, I have witnessed a number of governments supporting national stock markets in order to hijack votes. But at the same time, all these goverments stopped all support the first Monday after the elections. My guess is the support of the S&P500, and all defaulted companies will stop right after the elections. No matter who is the next president, he has absolutely no reason supporting this madness.

The establishment that holds the majority of the wealth, will not like to see the value of that wealth being deflated. Human progression requires that people get paid to work. Capitalism requires a catastrophe and a rebirth in order to survive and that includes defaulted companies.

This is just a hypothesis I am making, highlighting that November might be an important turning point.
Last edited by arbusers on Sat May 30, 2020 7:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified

Sat May 30, 2020 9:33 am

The above is correct with 1 big caveat. 

The federal reserve was yet to start the program last week.  ALL of the buying of corporate bonds has so far been done by the private market. 

The mere announcement and promise to do the buying has been enough to support the markets and has created huge financing opportunities within the market itself, people were unafraid to buy corporate bonds because the FED announced they would buy those bonds and even ETF's consisting of those bonds, so they have kind of a "safety net".  This was probably enough to save the economy and avoid a crash.  I believe it was an extremely smart move on the Feds part to announce this program.  So far it has created 0 extra government/fed debt while supporting the markets in a huge way. 

Companies could still go bankrupt, but those bankrupties will have been postponed and, should they come (some inevetably will), will come delayed and much more spread out meaning there will be much less of a jolt to the overall economy and it will allow the economy to absorb all of the shocks in the years to come.

Because the worst of the crisis has already been appeased, stopping the program in 5 months would have a limited impact IMHO as the companies in need of funding due to covid have gotten the funding they needed to survive and those that got funding but were already not doing well financially have merely postponed their eventual demise, but those demises will come slower and the economy will be able to absorb them like it would in normal times.  I am of the opinion the worst is actually behind us now in terms of the market.  The recovery will be slower and it may take us a few years to reach new highs with some smaller drops on the way, but I do not think we will see the lows of 23 march again at all, let alone a lower drop.

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