S&P500 value zones identified (page 3)

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CharlieSheen99
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CharlieSheen99

Re: S&P500 value zones identified
« Reply #30 on: August 07, 2020, 11:26:40 PM »
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Half of the world's economy is totally dead, tourism is already 0%, bars and restaurants are 30-40%, almost every sector is at minimum, US has +1000 deaths everyday since 3 months ago,......and......at the same time, SP500 is close to a new all time record.

There is someone in this forum that could explain what the hell is happening?
I don't know about economics cycles, but i have eyes. And, what i see is a fucking disaster worldwide.
I hope that someone here can convince me of the opposite.

Cheers.
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turbobets
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
« Reply #31 on: August 08, 2020, 03:43:34 AM »
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Globalist (corporations) benefiting by failing small business'. Just my 2 cents.
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arbusers
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
« Reply #32 on: August 08, 2020, 06:34:09 AM »
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Half of the world's economy is totally dead, tourism is already 0%, bars and restaurants are 30-40%, almost every sector is at minimum, US has +1000 deaths everyday since 3 months ago,......and......at the same time, SP500 is close to a new all time record.

There is someone in this forum that could explain what the hell is happening?
I don't know about economics cycles, but i have eyes. And, what i see is a fucking disaster worldwide.
I hope that someone here can convince me of the opposite.

Cheers.

The explanation that I give can be found here:
https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=7153.msg77119#msg77119
In short, there is an unprecedented money printing orgy from the FED and other central banks, that keeps stock prices up, and supports millions of people through Paycheck Protection Programs.
At this point of time, I would avoid any US stock.
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alexunder
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
« Reply #33 on: August 09, 2020, 12:51:16 PM »
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Amazing post, please keep updating with your ideas!
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balls of steele
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
« Reply #34 on: January 20, 2021, 11:37:10 AM »
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I m fed up with the BTC and ETH posts from arbusers, so I thought to bump up this thread that he made no money, seeing a new all time high of the SP500 passing by.
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CharlieSheen99
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
« Reply #35 on: January 27, 2021, 12:26:35 PM »
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Covid19 represents a lethal danger for humans, but it is not unprecedented. We have seen ordeals like this in the past and in all of them humans survived.
I will plot all possible scenarios for S&P500 in a graph, and I will explain a strategy in order to create wealth on a long term basis. Of course, each and every one of us is in different circumstances and one must think for himself before making conclusions and decisions.

I identified 4 value zones depending on 3 different support lines coming from the past, some of them coming from 1987 or even before that year. At this point, no-one knows which one of them will be the stopover for the index. The picture will offer more clarity as we are nearing each zone and we observe the behavior and the psychology of investors. These are times when computers stop and humans take over. Mr. Market, with his manic-depressive character, will swing from his very pessimistic to his wildly optimistic faces.

So far we haven’t seen any capitulation in the market. We need to see capitulation before we invest our hard-earned money.

SPX.001.jpeg

Value zone 1 is based on a support line underpinned in 2000 and 2007. The support is very typical from the technical analysis’ view. There is a 50% downfall from the top. This 50% is a dream for every value investor. This is a zone we could invest some money.
Value zone 2 is based on a support line underpinned in 1987, 2009 and possibly 1990. This is far stronger and sneaky support. It is sneaky because it comes from very deep in the past. Usually, analysts don’t pay attention to these lines deeply rooted in the past. S&P500 has a tradition of not stopping in the lines where most people believe it will stop. This support demands a 69% downfall from the top. That would be my best guess and if achieved, some more money should be invested.
Value zone 3 is based on a support line underpinned in 2002 and 2009. This support is also very typical and easy to be identified. I believe that if the 1st support is broken, then all analysts will think of the 3rd while skipping the 2nd. It demands a downfall of 80% from the tops. This downfall should be the 2nd biggest in the history of the US stock market, right after the big depression. Again, funds should be available to be invested.
Value zone 4 is uncharted waters. Life as we know it will change there. It is not underpinned from past performance. It comes with a downfall of approximately 90%. Again money funds should be available here as well.

In the coming days, I m about to present more investing ideas and analysis on equities. As this plan is not a short term trade, I m looking for both price value and dividend performance. It is important to identify what should be bought at each line.

Please notice, the exposure should be limited as this one in a generation ordeal has a bumpy road. Firepower should be available at any point, as we don’t know when it is needed once again. The general idea behind my thoughts is to create a portfolio that will perform for years to come. This is not a short term trade.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

We revisited our analysis here:
https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=7153.msg76162#msg76162


Do you think that SP500 will go to this value zones, Nikos?

What do you think about take short positions on this market?


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Alfa1234
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
« Reply #36 on: January 27, 2021, 12:38:18 PM »
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Should it drop 60% to even value zone 1 now, we will be in the deepest crisis capitalism has ever faced and the Western world will be on the brink of collapse.  I hope it never happens.
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CharlieSheen99
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
« Reply #37 on: January 27, 2021, 01:09:19 PM »
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Should it drop 60% to even value zone 1 now, we will be in the deepest crisis capitalism has ever faced and the Western world will be on the brink of collapse.  I hope it never happens.

I don't see the future of Europe and the Western World clear, and it's not because of this pandemic, i said that before. Every South Asia country managed the virus much better than Western World. Political decisions cannot explain that. What i see is that all our system, our way to understand the relations with others, our way to understand the individual and the community, our education, our way to understand the freedom, our rights, our culture and values, our way to understand the politics, and the economy. Everything is in question. And we are seeing a new civilization going directly to the controls of the world's power, at the same time that the Western World is more divided than ever. It's not only the USA. In all Europe we see the same problems, and the same division between the people. At the same time, this Asian countries goes like a rocket, with plans for their countries, for the next 30 years. The first thing that Biden did, as POTUS, was put again the US in the Paris accordance. He will try to destroy everything that Trump did. And Trump tried to destroy everything that Obama did.

Divide et Impera said Julio César, Napoleón, and.......Xi Jinping.

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arbusers
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
« Reply #38 on: January 27, 2021, 01:56:56 PM »
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Short positions can be very dangerous and there are only 4-5 people in this world that can do this sport successfully.

Let's use this graph as a reference: https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=7153.msg76162#msg76162
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Wolfie
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
« Reply #39 on: January 27, 2021, 02:50:18 PM »
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Short positions can be very dangerous and there are only 4-5 people in this world that can do this sport successfully.

Statistically entering the market buying low is better than entering the market selling high. Thats because world economy is always bullish in long run.
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Skaggerak
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
« Reply #40 on: January 30, 2021, 03:19:39 PM »
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Has this whole Gamestop fiasco got anybody thinking more about shorting the market? What's that old adage to do with when the average person on the street is talking you know trouble is brewing. This episode feels like a potential milestone for the current market, where one of two things potentially happens.

1. The new 'ordinary' punter is integrated into the market, causing a power shift where this bleeding of hedge funds creates a new different playing field. The market as whole remains stable, but things become fairer in some sense, as ordinary people become more empowered by aspects of 'insider trading' that the big wigs have had for so long.

2. The influx of casual traders overvalues everything. Everyone wants in on the stock market and nobody really knows what's going on. We potentially see the doomsday, the 60% cited above, serious apocalyptic tin foil hat shit. Look at crypto with a broader lens and we can se extreme change in the microscosm of these last ten years. Maybe the market as a whole begins to imitate crypto volitilty as more people cause chaos.

Just shower thoughts really, but I have a feeling that a lot of people are going to feel a lot of pain very soon. Based on a lot of bearish heuristics perhaps.
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ilovethisforum
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
« Reply #41 on: January 31, 2021, 09:05:54 AM »
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Has this whole Gamestop fiasco got anybody thinking more about shorting the market? What's that old adage to do with when the average person on the street is talking you know trouble is brewing. This episode feels like a potential milestone for the current market, where one of two things potentially happens.

1. The new 'ordinary' punter is integrated into the market, causing a power shift where this bleeding of hedge funds creates a new different playing field. The market as whole remains stable, but things become fairer in some sense, as ordinary people become more empowered by aspects of 'insider trading' that the big wigs have had for so long.

2. The influx of casual traders overvalues everything. Everyone wants in on the stock market and nobody really knows what's going on. We potentially see the doomsday, the 60% cited above, serious apocalyptic tin foil hat shit. Look at crypto with a broader lens and we can se extreme change in the microscosm of these last ten years. Maybe the market as a whole begins to imitate crypto volitilty as more people cause chaos.

Just shower thoughts really, but I have a feeling that a lot of people are going to feel a lot of pain very soon. Based on a lot of bearish heuristics perhaps.

This thing with Gamestop and reddit shows us that the internet platforms can change the rules of the game. I don't believe that it will be finish very soon. In my opinion it just has started. Until a catalyst happens and reverse it. Now the retards all over the world will play the wallstreet game with the weapons that hedge funds used. Every once in a while a new stock tip will be posted on this forum and will create a snowball effect.
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arbusers
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
« Reply #42 on: January 31, 2021, 12:42:12 PM »
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As a side note, the GME scandal will make shorts think twice before shorting BTC, because BTC's power of network is far stronger than GME or any other stock.

These are phenomena cluing us we are close to a top for the S&P, if not already seen.
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Wolfie
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
« Reply #43 on: February 01, 2021, 09:21:07 AM »
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As a side note, the GME scandal will make shorts think twice before shorting BTC, because BTC's power of network is far stronger than GME or any other stock.

These are phenomena cluing us we are close to a top for the S&P, if not already seen.

The fundamental problem with GME was that this idiots shorted more shares than shares that actually exist. So if the price goes up they go broke and they dont have enough money to give to the winners who rised the prices up.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2021, 09:27:20 AM by Wolfie » Logged
arbusers
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Re: S&P500 value zones identified
« Reply #44 on: February 01, 2021, 09:40:00 AM »
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As a side note, the GME scandal will make shorts think twice before shorting BTC, because BTC's power of network is far stronger than GME or any other stock.

These are phenomena cluing us we are close to a top for the S&P, if not already seen.

The fundamental problem with GME was that this idiots shorted more shares than shares that actually exist. So if the price goes up they go broke and they dont have enough money to give to the winners who rised the prices up.

How do you know that Robinhood actually has the BTCs sold to their clients?
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