Arbusers

Our triangle remains intact. Bitcoin's price bounced to the upper side of the triangle, showing that more volumes are needed in order to break it.
Tonight, or tomorrow morning (depending on where you live) we have the halving event. This halving enjoyed wide coverage by the press, even CNBC has a daily report on it. It is very possible that we will soon see a ''sell the news'' crash, meaning that we could see significantly lower prices.
These could be good entry points for those left outside.

Here is the short term support.

Here is the technical analysis for Bitcoin the way I see it.
Bitcoin is so volatile, that it makes no sense trying to find short term trends and moves based on technical analysis or Elliott Wave theory. However, it seems that technical analysis is still reliable when we use supports and resists that are rooted deeply in the past.
In the following screenshot, we can see the 2 sides of our well-identified triangle, starting from the years 2017 and 2018, and then extrapolated in the future. We can also see another support line that started during the crash of March 2020.



The upper side of our triangle was tested unsuccessfully twice during these last weeks. But at the same time, the March 2020 support line is ascending sharply setting a strict time frame of 1 month where we should see a make or break. It is easily understood that we have only 2 possible scenarios from now until mid June.
1st. Bitcoin price brakes the upper side of the triangle that will result in a skyrocketing price. If this happens, we would like to see a retest of the upper side of the triangle that will provide additional strength to the later path of the price.
2nd. Bitcoin price brakes the March 2020 support line resulting in hardship and lower prices, setting the lower side of our triangle as a potential target. This will give the chance to laggards to join Bitcoin.

Whatever happens, we feel very much comfortable with our positions in BTC as both scenarios are serving our initial plan.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

There are reports showing Grayscale Bitcoin Trust having bought up to 33% of all newly minted bitcoin over a period of 100 days from February 7th until May the 17th. The investment fund added 60,762 BTC to its Bitcoin Trust Fund and that’s the equivalent of 607 BTC acquired each day during this period.
A very general estimation would highlight the average price of 8100 USD per BTC. Notice that we gave our own signals at 5800 USD and 6800 USD respectively.
I hope you do understand that here in the Arbusers forum, some times we are beating the experts in their own home.

arbusers wrote:
2nd. Bitcoin price brakes the March 2020 support line resulting in hardship and lower prices, setting the lower side of our triangle as a potential target. This will give the chance to laggards to join Bitcoin.

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I'm late to the party. Fingers crossed for this scenario so i can climb aboard.

The margins are really tight.



If the March support breaks, then we should expect hardship and a possible retest of the lower side of our triangle in the long run.
If the March support stays intact, then we should expect a possible retest of the upper side of our triangle really soon.

You already know our triangle and the March trend line.
Putting them together in the same chart and extrapolating them in the future, we see that BTC's price will have to brake one of them before June the 24th.

I promised to present our targets for the price of BTC and this is the time to do it.
We identified a triangle based on technical analysis. I am very happy to see our triangle circulating among high profile analysts and investors. A very experienced member of our forum said that it became a self-fulfilling prophecy. Only time will tell if we are correct.

We also identified June the 24th as the last date that the March trendline would remain strong. This trendline will stay in place if and only if the descending side of our triangle brakes before that date.



According to technical analysis, when the upper side of a triangle brake, the price moves to a height that would much the 3rd side of the triangle. In our case, it is 2.000+20.000=22.000. This price target should be reached within 2020 or 2021. I would say this is the first target. It would create a textbook of technical analysis if the upper side of our triangle is retested once again after it is broken, as indicated in our chart.

The Stock to Flow model, as previously presented, would create a target of 100.000 somewhere between 2021 and 2022. Please notice, the Stock to Flow model is not tested yet, and it came in the BTC world as an academic discussion only recently. However, I consider the possibilities it is correct, as very good.

In any case, like so many other things, BTC looks like a value bet to me, where investors bet when the offered odds are much higher than the real probability of an outcome.

However, there is a possibility the March trendline brakes before June the 24th, and that would mean further hardship for the price. Once again, only time will tell.

I would also like to say, that as time passes, BTC becomes a store value asset. More and more BTC are bought and kept away in hard wallets. Μutatis mutandis, this has been the case with Gold for some 4.000 years of human history.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

With the price at 10110$, is it a breakout? Is the triangle now broken?

neopas wrote: With the price at 10110$, is it a breakout? Is the triangle now broken?

It is just the tale, and not the body of the candle.

The March trendline is now broken. I expect hardship for the price of Bitcoin.

I'm watching but i'm not convinced you can apply technical analysis to bitcoin.
I might be displaying colossal ignorance here but as i see things bitcoin has no intrinsic value like other commodities.
Surely speculation on bitcoin can only be based on the 'greater fool' theory?

risilloch wrote: I'm watching but i'm not convinced you can apply technical analysis to bitcoin.
I might be displaying colossal ignorance here but as i see things bitcoin has no intrinsic value like other commodities.
Surely speculation on bitcoin can only be based on the 'greater fool' theory?

This is exactly why technical analysis works in bitcoin. No one knows the intrinsic value, so the tools you can use are technical analysis with sentiment analysis. The ellitowave theory with fibonacci applies very well here. Every move in btc is based on fear,greed and stop loss hunting.

Technical analysis on the bitcoin showdown in 2 weeks is fascinating and exciting. I know very little about such technical analyses, but I cannot help wondering if the March trendline would even have been broken yesterday, if the 1-day candlestick graph had been generated from somewhere in Australia. If it is the body not the tale, which is important, the bottom of the candle today and yesterday was around the 9500 level in Australia. I'm not from Australia, just wondering.

Thank you for the analyses btw ...