Arbusers

Since survivorship in more important than wealth creation, I will add a Cassandra prophesy here, hoping that Cassandra is wrong.

We are closing at the end of the month and a new candlestick will be added. If by any chance there is a twist in the developments that we see, the disappointment will be such, that will create a U turn, never seen before in the crypto markets.

There is some exiting rumours what i have read from different sites. I dont know how many big investor are going to listen michael saylor`s speach from bitcoing and crypto, and how to invest to them.
Biggest news what there is going on of course elon musks tweets about bitcoin and speculations that part of elon`s and tesla`s cash is going to turn to btc.
I have been thinking how much these news can pump the price and could it make new ath because of that?

The event in on 2nd-3rd of February and it would be interesting. Maybe the only reason is educational. As far as I know it is free of charge for all CEOs. We will see how it plays out.
Sharks don't need an event like this. They already have skin in the game. This is for smaller investors, but again, we have seen what smaller investors could do to giants like hedge funds and Robinhoods.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-08/tesla-bets-1-5-billion-on-bitcoin-in-new-policy-crypto-surges

Papa Musk

The price will go to the moon and stars.
Some times I think all these banks discouraging people like you ad me from buying Bitcoin, they do it on purpose, so their clients and themselves will get it first.

Tesla buying BTC is huge news. Of course the news will not influence our decisions as we are based on our analysis only.
But I have 2 questions for discussion.

1. What if Tesla as a company starts having troubles? This announcement looks like the last trick.
2. What if SEC says that BTC and cryptos can't be a part of the balance sheet of any publicly traded company? What will happen to Microstrategy and Tesla? What will they do then with their coins?

All opinions are welcome.

Some years ago i was trying to convince two otherwise clever friends of mine to buy bitcoin.

Each side was making good points and then i threw my strongest card that bitcoin was going to be the safe place for all the money that don't belong in the balance sheets, the second economy behind the economy.

Regulation won't matter for bitcoin if you believe that as long that someone or some company or some country have money to be stored bitcoin is the place to store it or some would say hide it. When you believe that people, companies or sovereign entities will want that then you believe in the essence of bitcoin.

Some people think there will be difficulties in regulations or scaling or else. In my little mind the exact hesitations for the internet then are here and now for bitcoin.

The internet swallowed all communication and it's not done yet. Bitcoin and maybe Ethereum will swallow all finance. But first they will chew it to their death like the internet did to previous technologies.

what i don't understand is why Tesla didn't buy 2 weeks ago. He pumped the price with his tweet only to buy 2 weeks later at a higher price?

Maybe Elon Musk read this forum, and he thought that 40k barrier needs his help.

CharlieSheen99 wrote: Maybe Elon Musk read this forum, and he thought that 40k barrier needs his help.

i now realized that actually he must have bought earlier and only announced today to spike the price.

arbusers wrote: Tesla buying BTC is huge news. Of course the news will not influence our decisions as we are based on our analysis only.
But I have 2 questions for discussion.

1. What if Tesla as a company starts having troubles? This announcement looks like the last trick.
2. What if SEC says that BTC and cryptos can't be a part of the balance sheet of any publicly traded company? What will happen to Microstrategy and Tesla? What will they do then with their coins?

All opinions are welcome.

Firstly i must say that i missed your crypto analysis , please keep them coming!
Since you haven't write anything for a while i suppose you are holding your last announced positions ?
Now , regarding your "what if's" they are surely genuine concerns , as they exist many more like them , however eventhough i acknowledge the extreme speculative nature of this space imho with bitcoin's and ethereum's mcap combined  to more than 1 tn $ ,  they are already too big to fail ! Surely will be corrections and huge dips but i just can't see a total failure of these two ! Not anymore! Having said that i also believe that bitcoin's dominance of crypto mcap will fall below 50% (maybe even 40%) during this bull cycle before rising again when the bears inevitably come.

apoel81 wrote: what i don't understand is why Tesla didn't buy 2 weeks ago. He pumped the price with his tweet only to buy 2 weeks later at a higher price?

In fact, if you read Tesla's announcement you ll find out they bought in mid January.

cortomaltese wrote: Firstly i must say that i missed your crypto analysis , please keep them coming!
Since you haven't write anything for a while i suppose you are holding your last announced positions ?
Now , regarding your "what if's" they are surely genuine concerns , as they exist many more like them , however eventhough i acknowledge the extreme speculative nature of this space imho with bitcoin's and ethereum's mcap combined  to more than 1 tn $ ,  they are already too big to fail ! Surely will be corrections and huge dips but i just can't see a total failure of these two ! Not anymore! Having said that i also believe that bitcoin's dominance of crypto mcap will fall below 50% (maybe even 40%) during this bull cycle before rising again when the bears inevitably come.

All transactions I made are announced in the forum. If you don't see me announcing any transaction for a while, is because there isn't any. I might come back with a post about my recent thoughts in this cycle.

Cryptos represent an existential threat for the status quo. The status quo is a team of people that never worked to get what they have. Politicians and bankers are on the top of the pyramid, and stimmies addicts are on the base. These stimmies addicts are something like a billion people worldwide, maybe more. These people will do anything within their powers to stop cryptos.

The BTC dominance is declining. We could do some basic technical analysis there, but I don't see how it wold go lower than 50% on average before 2024. Yes, it could go lower before 2024, but will not stay for long there.

There is a wide spread secret among fund managers saying that the fair total market cap of all cryptos combined is $3Tn. That was recently mentioned briefly by ARK's ETF manager Cathy Woods. Most of them are making their calculations based on this number. However, this doesn't mean they are all correct. They might be wrong and the total market cap goes up to $10Tn.

But whatever people say, I can only trust my data and my analysis.

arbusers wrote:

apoel81 wrote: what i don't understand is why Tesla didn't buy 2 weeks ago. He pumped the price with his tweet only to buy 2 weeks later at a higher price?

In fact, if you read Tesla's announcement you ll find out they bought in mid January.

Unless i miss something, it says that they changed investment policy on January, not that they bought on January.

https://imgur.com/a/RkCZvfJ

Anyway personally i am not a fan of such moves.

Let's say Tesla bought at 30.000 and they pump the price let's say to 60.000. Tesla slowly sold some btc and then Elon Musk wake up one day and writes ''Bitcoing is overvalued'' and price will be back to 30.000