Arbusers

Everyone here see a lot of value in your posts.
If there is any way to share your knowledge with this community, please, do it.
I know that there is a lot of work involved and you are sharing this for nothing.
For that reason, i asked you to some formulas (like investment fund), that allows you to worth your time and receive something back, and allows us to win money from your knowledge.
I am not counting here the time that you need for your family and friends, that obviously cannot be paid.

So, my suggestion is just, to think a way, please.

We are all people with money, and we know others that have money. You make with your investments more than 100%. Most of us have money doing nothing, or waiting for a good investment....., just think about it.

Since the end of cycle according to your expectation is near, how do you plan to protect your profits?

Do you plan to sell for fiat/stablecoins before the end of cycle or you simply move your funds at an exchange and use stop loss?

apoel81 wrote: Since the end of cycle according to your expectation is near,

Please read my previous posts. We don't know if we approach a very important top or the end of the cycle.
This is the million dollar question. More data is needed to decide what kind of top this one will be.

Today's metrics: April 11th 2021.

Let's visualise the 2 remaining scenarios according to my analysis. As I already said, the simplest Technical Analysis is the most powerful. We identified a line deeply rooted in time since the inception of BTC. This line is now a resistance. We also identified cycles in the price of BTC. Each cycle should be around 4 years long, and as investors we should be preferring lengthening cycles instead of shortening.





Scenario 1: A very important top coming in the next couple of months with blow off signals, followed by a severe correction (above 40%). A price consolidation, and then again a 2nd most important top that would signal the end of the cycle and the end of the bull market at the end of 2021. This scenario is the strongest currently.

Scenario 2: A small correction followed by price consolidation ending with a blow off top at the end of 2021.

Both scenarios are visualised at the following graph:



You should not take the arrows above to the bank. These are indicative. Further data is needed to identify tops and bottoms. The arrows above can help you draw a strategy to follow according to your risk tolerance and investing style.
Now, I know I am repetitive, but some things must be highlighted.

1. Every passing day brings us closer to the top (self evident).

2. Time removes the fragile and keeps the durable. The life expectancy of the durable increases with time. BTC’s problem is time.

3. Bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies are 100% faith. What do you think will happen at an asset whose entire reason of existence is faith and nothing more than faith, at the next phase of the market when faith is at its nadir?

4. I do not bite the New Paradigm. The more it changes, the more it remains the same. This time is not different.

No matter what Pauls and Pomps are saying, I do not bite the entertainers and the majorettes who are paid for clicks and video views. I remain strongly committed to a way of thinking as taught from Thucydides, Cavafy, Graham, and the later philosophers of the markets like Grantham and Taleb. People with skin in the game, are entitled to have an opinion, and this opinion must be respected. Absolutely no respect for the opinion of people with no skin in the game.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

arbusers wrote: No matter what Pauls and Pomps are saying, I do not bite the entertainers and the majorettes who are paid for clicks and video views.

This is blasphemy. What makes you think you are better than these 2?

There is no bigger fraud in these times than the ''New Paradigm''.
An additional problem is that everyone understands the ''New Paradigm'' differently.

Headless chickens believe that cryptos will replace fiat.
Governments believe they can print fiat for ever.

Both so lethally dangerous.

arbusers wrote: There is no bigger fraud in these times than the ''New Paradigm''.
An additional problem is that everyone understands the ''New Paradigm'' differently.

Headless chickens believe that cryptos will replace fiat.
Governments believe they can print fiat for ever.

Both so lethally dangerous.

One guy i follow in twitter talking about being short to the actual financial system because of inflation and money printing.
And, for that, he puts all his money in BTC. I mean...ALL.

arbusers wrote: This is to inform you that I am slowly DCAing some BTC to add to my position. This should bring my BTC position to 55% (from 50%).

This is to inform you that my BTC holdings are again back to 50% as I sold the 5% I purchased back in the days. It was sold to fiat at 58000$.
Today's metrics: April the 7th.

Things are heating up again, and if they continue like this I will sell some more in the next days.

How do you think what scenario could it be if Apple will buy Bitcoin ?

So, long story short, you will have a peak  close to the end of 2021 with deeps between q2-q3.
Not to take away anyhting from your work, but if someone read anyone beeing in the game since 2014 onwards could tell you the exact same thing.

All in all, good luck!

down wrote: So, long story short, you will have a peak  close to the end of 2021 with deeps between q2-q3.
Not to take away anyhting from your work, but if someone read anyone beeing in the game since 2014 onwards could tell you the exact same thing.

All in all, good luck!

A massive thank you for the “good luck”.

TheStakeHunters wrote: How do you think what scenario could it be if Apple will buy Bitcoin ?

It always a bad tactic reacting to news. Because if news are the trigger of your action, you will always be the last in the chain to take that action.
I could come up with thousands ifs, it makes no sense analysing them.

How are the metrics looking?
Will you be shorting bitcoin at this top we are approaching?

Bobby80 wrote: How are the metrics looking?
Will you be shorting bitcoin at this top we are approaching?

Today's metrics show April the 8th as a potential important top.
I do not belong to these 4-5 people globally who can short BTC successfully, therefore I will not short it.

I am about to post a more detailed post during the weekend.

It's very possible indeed that we are approaching an important top but something tells me that maybe Bitcoin will not attract the main lights of this stage!