Arbusers

Looking back at the  2017 bitcoin chart, bitcoin peaked on the 17th December, while ethereum peaked on 13th Jan 2018
Do you see something like this happening again?

Where the alt coins continue to pump for a few weeks after the top of Bitcoin?

Bobby80 wrote: Looking back at the  2017 bitcoin chart, bitcoin peaked on the 17th December, while ethereum peaked on 13th Jan 2018
Do you see something like this happening again?

Where the alt coins continue to pump for a few weeks after the top of Bitcoin?

I want to know this as well.
What is your prediction about the rest of Altcoins.

Bobby80 wrote: Looking back at the  2017 bitcoin chart, bitcoin peaked on the 17th December, while ethereum peaked on 13th Jan 2018
Do you see something like this happening again?

Where the alt coins continue to pump for a few weeks after the top of Bitcoin?

You are correct with this observation. However, it makes no sense searching for a repeat of what happened one cycle ago, as there is no guarantee it will happen again. Most probably the market will try to surprise everyone.

If BTC bleeds, altcoins will bleed even more. Therefore there is no value searching for the last point in any altcoin, when BTC goes down the drain. Why to be engaged on something very volatile, when most probably this volatility is a burden and not an advantage?

For everyone insterested  we are already in alt season and this is maybe another indicator
It seems that alts doesn't have much norther to go
blockchaincenter.net/altcoin-season-index/#how30

This is to inform you that I sold 25% of my BTC position to fiat at 58300$ price.
I will explain the logic tomorrow.
For now, I keep 25% of my BTC and 25% of my ETH. My intention is not to sell them any time soon, as I am very comfortable with any price fluctuation in both directions.

arbusers wrote: This is to inform you that I sold 25% of my BTC position to fiat at 58300$ price.
I will explain the logic tomorrow.
For now, I keep 25% of my BTC and 25% of my ETH. My intention is not to sell them any time soon, as I am very comfortable with any price fluctuation in both directions.

Can you please share with us your -so far- average selling price for BTC and ETH?

cortomaltese wrote: Can you please share with us your -so far- average selling price for BTC and ETH?

44555$ for BTC
1261$ for ETH

I had a look at Twitter and Youtube yesterday night only to find out that absolutely everyone is screaming for higher prices in the crypto sphere. Ben Graham teaches, the intelligent investor is a realist who sells to optimists and buys from pessimists. Over the last 22 years of my investing activity, I learned that what is needed the most for a successful investing career, is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding that framework.

So I learned not to pay attention to the news, and not to pay attention to what people with no skin in the game say. That is why I m basing all decisions on my own graphs and analysis.

Speaking of graphs, I am noticing that BTC’s technical analysis is not encouraging, as we have successive lower lows in our loyal daily RSI. In addition, during these last months, a very powerful line is drawn, the one that shows a barrier stopping BTC to move at higher prices. See graph below.



Then I moved to the monthly chart to notice the monthly RSI at 89.37. According to the resistance of RSI, this price could go up to 95 and if confirmed that would bring the price of BTC to 6 digit levels easily. However, it is so obvious in the graph that I decided not to be greedy and chase it. See graph below.



Over all, we explained in the past that BTC has distinct cycles and these cycles should not end very soon. At this point in time we are receiving various signals that we are coming very close at a very important top. Most probably this will not be the end of the cycle, as there are at least 6-8 more months required for that. That means, a good gap down will offer nice re-investing opportunities that should be exploited.

The proprietary metrics that I built, are showing me the dates of 7th and 8th of April as potential trend turnaround days. Since you can never be that accurate about these things, I decided to sell earlier than later, fearing that if a strong turn around force appears, I will not be able to sell at convenient levels. What would be the triggering event? Frankly I don’t know. It could be anything. A crack down on BTC from the Washington communists. A new tax reality on long and short term capital gains. It could be anything. But since BTC is a wealth store asset, most probably it will be something around containing the freedom of people against central banks and other Communist’s institutions. Let me not be Pythia here.

There are some caveats here as well. There is always the possibility that I am wrong. My metrics should be combined with a blow off top. So far we haven’t seen this blow off top and the characteristics of mania. This is my biggest worry, the one that would prove me wrong. I patiently waited to get closer to these dates, but no blow offs, no tops appeared. Maybe this is the sneaky point of everything, when price patters are not repeated the way everyone expects.

Blending all these, I decided to take some profits to the bank. I built my investing thesis during these months around safety. I took early profits that allowed me to sleep calmly at night. The remaining 25% of my cryptos position is giving me 2 options:

1. If price goes to the 6 digits, I will be happy to collect some more profits.
2. If price goes to 0, I already pocketed a very important amount of money.

Whatever of these 2 happens (or anything in the between) I became a better investor and a richer one. I feel blessed from life that offered the opportunity to me to make this money and I hope you all guys make more money than me. I will be happy to see you fitly rich. I will be happy to see you investing more effectively than me.

In any case, I thank all of you guys for following this journey, even the bitter posters of this thread. I will not continue sharing my analysis on stock markets and cryptos the way I did all these years, for the reasons that I explained in pervious posts.

Good luck.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

arbusers wrote:

cortomaltese wrote: Can you please share with us your -so far- average selling price for BTC and ETH?

44555$ for BTC
1261$ for ETH

once again Thank you very much for your transparency

Thank you for the opportunity and the knowledge shared.
Of course thank you for the hours you spent with me on Skype.

Is this the time where we must cry?
Something like the end of the Titanic with Di Caprio?

I will miss your trading posts.
Anyway, so many thanks for the profits and for the work.
I will miss the comments of balls of steele as well.

arbusers wrote:
I will not continue sharing my analysis on stock markets and cryptos the way I did all these years, for the reasons that I explained in pervious posts.

Good luck.

Thank you for the great job.! - definitely i will miss this topic,

CharlieSheen99 wrote: I will miss the comments of balls of steele as well.

I am not leaving.

I am taking this chance to thanks again arbusers as i have done already many times before for his great work and the will to share it , but eventhough
he decided to stop posting i propose to everyone in this thread  to continue it if there are no objections