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Long on BTC

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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC

Fri Jul 24, 2020 10:40 am

A quick revisit on BTC technicals.

I am surprised to see a number of high profile analysts claiming that our triangle is broken. Clearly, this is not the case. The triangle is still intact and the recent spikes should not be considered as anything else, but spikes.
BTC Triangle still intact.png
The bigger picture remains blurry. There is a landmark called US elections in the beginning of November 2020, and this landmark will determine everything, from S&P500 to BTC prices. This is one of the sneakiest if not the sneakiest period I can ever remember for stock markets and commodities.
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Re: Long on BTC

Fri Jul 24, 2020 5:36 pm

Thanks for update arbusers! Looks like we have to wait till US elections.

I noticed that many big crypto groups changed their view from bearish to bullish in recent weeks, for example recent jump from 9100 area to 9500 happened after PBC released their news. I just think this might be the "self-fullfilling prophecy", when these groups motivate so many buyers that the price will indeed break the triangel upwards..

We will see...
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Re: Long on BTC

Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:42 pm

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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC

Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:49 am

The triangle is now clearly broken.

BTC latest.png


According to the technical analysis textbook, we need to see a retest of the descending line.
At this point, I m reluctant re-investing in BTC, as there is a big landmark in front of us called the US elections. During the last couple of weeks, we have seen the S&P500/BTC correlation weakened.
Congrats to those who got the move.
Last edited by arbusers on Wed Jul 29, 2020 10:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
makarid
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Re: Long on BTC

Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:28 pm

I would like to give you my 2 cents. For those that do not know, there is an indicator named "Fear and Greed" crypto index in which they measure the sentiment in the industry.The indicator can take values from 0-100, 0 is the extreme fear and 100 the extreme greed. In the past this indicator have given excellent signs of extreme emotions in the crypto markets. Right now it is at 75, every time that it went above 90, the market started a correction( it doesn't calculate how big or small the correction will be,it just gives signs of extreme emotions). If would like to post the link if i can. The indicator updates every 24 hours and you can see the historical prices also. Also be aware that this Friday, a huge amount of options and future contracts will expire(maybe one of the biggest so far)!
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Re: Long on BTC

Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:04 pm

ilovethisforum wrote: I would like to give you my 2 cents. For those that do not know, there is an indicator named "Fear and Greed" crypto index in which they measure the sentiment in the industry.The indicator can take values from 0-100, 0 is the extreme fear and 100 the extreme greed. In the past this indicator have given excellent signs of extreme emotions in the crypto markets. Right now it is at 75, every time that it went above 90, the market started a correction( it doesn't calculate how big or small the correction will be,it just gives signs of extreme emotions). If would like to post the link if i can. The indicator updates every 24 hours and you can see the historical prices also. Also be aware that this Friday, a huge amount of options and future contracts will expire(maybe one of the biggest so far)!
Is this Arthur Hayes in the profile picture?
I like his story the video where he explains how life led him to BitMex is a lesson for all people with eyes open and a risk tolerance just like a lot of our community.

Regarding the CME gap filling perhaps it works a lot of times but i look at it like the correlation with the s&p500 it works until it doesn't, meaning some people trade that way and when it gets spotted then they start not trading that way and find another.
Last edited by stevie on Wed Jul 29, 2020 4:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
balls of steele
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Re: Long on BTC

Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:25 pm

I will tell you what arbusers. You missed a jump from 9.300 to 12.000. Anything else is simply BS.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC

Thu Aug 06, 2020 2:51 pm

balls of steele wrote: I will tell you what arbusers. You missed a jump from 9.300 to 12.000. Anything else is simply BS.
When in doubt, miss out!
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Re: Long on BTC

Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:37 am

balls of steele wrote: I will tell you what arbusers. You missed a jump from 9.300 to 12.000. Anything else is simply BS.
It is easy to tell that now, after the fact. In my opinion the best risk reward at that time was sell. Also, it is very easy to put an order to buy bitcoin automatically when it passes, lets say 11K, in order to not lose a big move up.So you basically miss 2K move in order to save you from 4K move down. Good trading strategy in my eyes.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC

Fri Sep 04, 2020 7:51 am

arbusers wrote: According to the technical analysis textbook, we need to see a retest of the descending line.
At this point, I m reluctant re-investing in BTC, as there is a big landmark in front of us called the US elections. During the last couple of weeks, we have seen the S&P500/BTC correlation weakened.
We are expecting to see retest. Ideally, this retest should occur the day of the US elections, November 3rd 2020.

BTC retest.png
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Re: Long on BTC

Sun Sep 20, 2020 8:59 am

An update is needed here. Crossroads ahead,
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Re: Long on BTC

Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:33 am

It's starting to get interesting again. A test of the ATH in the charts?
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC

Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:18 pm

It is getting interesting indeed

Newest.png


From the technical view, there are 2 conclusions deriving.
1st. It was safe to buy back in July as we had the confirmation of retesting the triangle from the upper side. This retest was not obvious at first glance as it happened quite shortly after the breakout.
2nd. The sky is clear above us and there are no barriers until we meet the next ceiling. The next ceiling will not be the previous ATH, but will be met in a parallel line with our floor.
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Re: Long on BTC

Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:11 pm

So, the recommendation now is to buy bitcoin.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC

Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:37 pm

CharlieSheen99 wrote: So, the recommendation now is to buy bitcoin.
There is no recommendation in my previous post. There are other views besides the technical one, one has to consider. However, the odds are now favoring those who would like to take moderate risk.
Last edited by arbusers on Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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