Arbusers

thanks for the update

arbusers wrote: An additional 10% of my BTC position was sold today at 34750$ to Fiat.

will you be buying back if price fell on some desiered levels?

Arbusers, your performance is so good. And your decisions are so intelligent. What do you think about create an investment fund?

I would love to pay you 30% of the winnings. And, i know that you are a reliable, and confidence person. You have all my respect.

I put my money in your hands, with my close eyes, and even without sign any paper.

kapetan1122 wrote:

arbusers wrote: An additional 10% of my BTC position was sold today at 34750$ to Fiat.

will you be buying back if price fell on some desiered levels?

Yes of course. But I can't give a deterministic answer right now. Cryptos are the zeitgeist of our times, but what if something else comes up with better perspectives?
My analysis is showing that we are early at the market cycle, but these last days BTC has so much power that I m thinking this is the real McCoy and not a local top.
Frankly, I need to see BTC cooling off a little bit now, otherwise, if it continues like this I will see all my assets in the coming days.

CharlieSheen99 wrote:
Arbusers, your performance is so good. And your decisions are so intelligent. What do you think about create an investment fund?

I would love to pay you 30% of the winnings. And, i know that you are a reliable, and confidence person. You have all my respect.

I put my money in your hands, with my close eyes, and even without sign any paper.

The investment fund demands so much regulatory effort that I really can't dedicate the time for it. I need some time for family and friends you know. Speaking of friends, you know that money and friends are not going together. There will be times that I will make mistakes, this is inevitable. And if you take a look at older posts, you will see that indeed I made mistakes. Thankfully these were minors and not big ones. Where is Balls of Steele by the way?
I will think about it if it is possible to build a different entity for investing. But again this requires time.
And of course, many thanks for your encouraging words.

arbusers wrote:
Speaking of friends, you know that money and friends are not going together.

arbusers wrote:

CharlieSheen99 wrote:
Arbusers, your performance is so good. And your decisions are so intelligent. What do you think about create an investment fund?

I would love to pay you 30% of the winnings. And, i know that you are a reliable, and confidence person. You have all my respect.

I put my money in your hands, with my close eyes, and even without sign any paper.

The investment fund demands so much regulatory effort that I really can't dedicate the time for it. I need some time for family and friends you know. Speaking of friends, you know that money and friends are not going together. There will be times that I will make mistakes, this is inevitable. And if you take a look at older posts, you will see that indeed I made mistakes. Thankfully these were minors and not big ones. Where is Balls of Steele by the way?
I will think about it if it is possible to build a different entity for investing. But again this requires time.
And of course, many thanks for your encouraging words.

Ironically, the crypto might be solution to regulatory barrier. What I mean is that it is possible to create the investment fund on blockchain platform like Ethereum by writing smart contract. Smart contracts are really good for those type of things, you can set any kind of rules in your smart contract (like who can invest, how profit is distributed, rules for withdrawing money, etc.). Anyone would be able to simply send money directly to your smart contract and you would not need to worry about all that legal bureaucracy.

@arbusers I am not the type to follow some strategy blindly but one thing i can say for sure, your insights are one of the best publicly disclosed in this sphere and i am sure everyone looks up to it. A big thanks for taking your time to write this posts. Maybe this is a new direction for forum to grow as i see there are a lot of smart guys interested in this and starting to contribute too.

This is to inform you that an additional 5% of my BTC portfolio was just sold at 37000$ to fiat.

As you understand I am trying to bring the average selling price as higher as I can. I will sell bigger % chunks from now on if the price continues to go higher. As we are dynamically DCAing our sales, we will sell bigger chunks at higher prices, hoping that we get as close as we can to the top. No one can predict where this top is. No one can control the price of this market. What we can control are our emotions.

Thank you for your good words so far.

arbusers wrote: This is to inform you that an additional 5% of my BTC portfolio was just sold at 37000$ to fiat.

As you understand I am trying to bring the average selling price as higher as I can. I will sell bigger % chunks from now on if the price continues to go higher. As we are dynamically DCAing our sales, we will sell bigger chunks at higher prices, hoping that we get as close as we can to the top. No one can predict where this top is. No one can control the price of this market. What we can control are our emotions.

Thank you for your good words so far.

Morning boss
If i am not mistaken you have sold around 20% of your BTC holdings to fiat so far ?

So far I sold 29% of my total BTC holdings. The vast majority went to fiat, while some went to LINK.

The word mania comes from the ancient Greek word ''menesthai'' that means be mad.

To me, there is no doubt that what we see these last days in the crypto world is a mania, or a bubble. Let's have a look at the following picture showing the phases of a bubble:



The most important element of the bubble, is to correctly identify the exact point that we are today. This is not an easy thing to do as phases might overlap according to the signals one receives, and their subsequent interpretations.

So in my opinion we are clearly at the last stages of the ''public'' phase, where greed, delusion and the new paradigm are mixed together. You might have read the example of the banker and his shoeblack. Something similar happened to me a couple of days ago, when a friend I hadn't heard for 12 years contacted me to ask about the perspectives of BTC.

arbusers wrote:

So in my opinion we are clearly at the last stages of the ''public'' phase, where greed, delusion and the new paradigm are mixed together. You might have read the example of the banker and his shoeblack. Something similar happened to me a couple of days ago, when a friend I hadn't heard for 12 years contacted me to ask about the perspectives of BTC.

A friend I hadn't heard for 5 years contacted me a couple of days ago, for the same reason.

This is to inform you that an additional 21% of my BTC portfolio was just sold at 39400$ to fiat. So far 50% of my BTC portfolio is sold.
The reason why I selected a bigger chunk is because I expect 40k$ to be an important obstacle, if anything can be characterised as obstacle, under these specific circumstances. In addition, this is in accordance to our Dynamic DCAing that needs bigger parts of portfolio to be sold at higher prices.

followed your suggestion as always.

Do you expect a massive sell from the same institutions that caused the price pump?

I mean, those institutions aren't supposed to be long term investors that will hold btc for ages etc?