Long on BTC (page 16)

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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #225 on: February 24, 2021, 10:04:26 AM »
0

One of the biggest realtors that I know, now operating in 2 continents, has been a professional blackjack player.
The founder and now the CEO of a well established crypto exchange that we all know and probably use, has been a member of our forum since the starting years.
It seems the mindset of a professional gambler is well prepared for a number of business and that includes real estate, cryptos and the stock markets. I am sure there are other spheres a professional gambler could thrive.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #226 on: February 24, 2021, 12:01:50 PM »
+1

@ arbusers. Don't you think this is a nice chance to buy some coins in discount? You said you regret selling much of your ETH stack. Did you buy back?

Indeed I placed an order to buy my missing ETH. Unfortunately, The order was not executed for just 8 points. Maybe I was very strict and went to take the last penny under the table. My mistake.

I would like all of you guys to keep the feeling of the loss of the previous 2 days. Because if you keep this feeling, you will realise how nice it is taking profits beforehand, while the price goes down rapidly.
Bring your self for a minute, to the guy that bought 3 days ago, having to suffer 2 successive days of panic. Would you like to be in his position? I guess not. That is why we all need a strategy and a framework, and we must protect them from corroding.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2021, 12:14:08 PM by arbusers » Logged
cortomaltese
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #227 on: February 24, 2021, 02:01:11 PM »
0

@ arbusers. Don't you think this is a nice chance to buy some coins in discount? You said you regret selling much of your ETH stack. Did you buy back?

Indeed I placed an order to buy my missing ETH. Unfortunately, The order was not executed for just 8 points. Maybe I was very strict and went to take the last penny under the table. My mistake.

I would like all of you guys to keep the feeling of the loss of the previous 2 days. Because if you keep this feeling, you will realise how nice it is taking profits beforehand, while the price goes down rapidly.
Bring your self for a minute, to the guy that bought 3 days ago, having to suffer 2 successive days of panic. Would you like to be in his position? I guess not. That is why we all need a strategy and a framework, and we must protect them from corroding.

I guess you are not using kraken! ETH went almost to 700 usd there in a flash crash and probably made some people with the right kind of bots richer! Unfortunately i don't use any bots and i wonder had i placed an order would it get filled ?
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #228 on: February 25, 2021, 01:18:05 PM »
+2

I am coming back to simply repeat my self. It is not clear if this correction is finished or not but it already served its purpose. It gave the market more breathing space and time. More market maturity. As a result, because of this correction the end of the cycle will take longer to appear, and the final top will be higher than the one expected before.
As I said before, I am running some custom made metrics. Compared to last week, these metrics now show a better future in the short term.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #229 on: February 26, 2021, 07:54:07 PM »
+1

This is to inform you that I am slowly DCAing some BTC to add to my position. This should bring my BTC position to 55% (from 50%). The technicals are getting better and I am preparing for the final blow off phase at the end of the super cycle. According to my dynamic metrics, it is a matter of weeks or a small number of months.

I decided not to invest this small amount of money to ETH or LINK, because at this point I am not looking for this little extra something in exchange for a higher degree of risk. My plan is to sell LINK first, the ETH and in the end BTC, because this is the bottom up hierarchy of risk.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2021, 08:26:31 PM by arbusers » Logged
cortomaltese
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #230 on: February 26, 2021, 10:16:19 PM »
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This is to inform you that I am slowly DCAing some BTC to add to my position. This should bring my BTC position to 55% (from 50%). The technicals are getting better and I am preparing for the final blow off phase at the end of the super cycle. According to my dynamic metrics, it is a matter of weeks or a small number of months.

I decided not to invest this small amount of money to ETH or LINK, because at this point I am not looking for this little extra something in exchange for a higher degree of risk. My plan is to sell LINK first, the ETH and in the end BTC, because this is the bottom up hierarchy of risk.

So you are anticipating the end of this bull period in just a matter of a few weeks or months?! If that's the case eventhough possible true you are making a bold prediction! Did you establish any price levels towards the end of this cycle ? Would you consider 100k BTC and 3k ETH reasonable ?
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #231 on: February 27, 2021, 05:47:55 AM »
+2

This is to inform you that I am slowly DCAing some BTC to add to my position. This should bring my BTC position to 55% (from 50%). The technicals are getting better and I am preparing for the final blow off phase at the end of the super cycle. According to my dynamic metrics, it is a matter of weeks or a small number of months.

I decided not to invest this small amount of money to ETH or LINK, because at this point I am not looking for this little extra something in exchange for a higher degree of risk. My plan is to sell LINK first, the ETH and in the end BTC, because this is the bottom up hierarchy of risk.

So you are anticipating the end of this bull period in just a matter of a few weeks or months?! If that's the case eventhough possible true you are making a bold prediction! Did you establish any price levels towards the end of this cycle ? Would you consider 100k BTC and 3k ETH reasonable ?

I am not predicting anything. I am simply having a look at the data and the fusion of the data. This is not a prediction, it is the result of an analysis. Even though I have some price targets in my mind, these are so loose that makes no sense mentioning a price range of 20k.
I explained before why I will not look at the Y axis. It is safer to focus on the X axis, that is Time.
I also explained why I would prefer a longer cycle instead of a shorter one. A longer cycle will give us a higher All Time High. A shorter cycle will give us a new ATH, but not to the extend of the longer cycle. However, the market is strict and it is not there to make favours to anyone, including me. Unless something very big happens, this market cycle will not end in 22-23 as I would wish. It will end sooner. My metrics are showing me exact dates each day, but this is a dynamic procedure. Successive days of positive performance brings the ATH closer in time, while calm days and negative performances are pushing the ATH back in time.

it is a matter of weeks or a small number of months.

So if we have many successive days of +5+10%, the market top will come much closer to today and it will be a matter of some weeks. But if we have a mix of calm days, combined with days of small losses and days of small profits, a small number of months is required to get to the top but this top will be higher.

Judging from the Skype and PM communications that I have with you guys, and the posts that I see in these threads, I understand that some of you are very much confused with what is happening. Starting from March the 1st, I will post the potential dates of the end of the market cycle. This is a dynamic procedure and the results of today's analysis will be different from tomorrow's. But in the end all dates will converge, and we will be able to locate the supercilium of the end of the cycle, plus or minus some days.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #232 on: February 28, 2021, 10:25:44 AM »
+1

Already the correction in the BTC price is 31% at the time of this post. This is an excellent opportunity to recap about our buying/selling strategy in all 3 cryptos that we invested in this cycle (BTC, ETH, LINK).
We took a lot of profits during the run of the last couple of months, and we kept selling bigger parts of our portfolio at higher prices each time. This gave us the luxury to have pocketed a significant amount of profit, and we now have enough firing power to buy some more, if the circumstances meet our criteria.
We will continue selling larger parts of our portfolio as prices go up, or, we will buy back some of our coins if prices keep going down. All I am saying, is that this tactic is not exploiting the market cycle to the maximum extent, but it is a tactic that can forgive many mistakes and allows us to pocket profits.
We have absolutely no indication that $58000 was the top of the cycle. It seems that was an important local top.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #233 on: March 01, 2021, 02:53:31 PM »
+1

These last months, I spent 1000s of hours in order to analyse and understand the nature of this cycle and find tools that would help me identify a potential top with a decent possibility of being right. BTC is on a price discovery mode and classic Technical Analysis will need a good help from other tools. Since y axis is not helping much, I am now focusing on the x axis. That is time.

I built some new metrics. These are proprietary and a result of very intense intellectual work. Like our loyal RSI, these metrics gain or lose momentum in the depth of time and that means that today’s extrapolations will be different tomorrow. But at least, I managed to reduce randomness and noise. These metrics, or indicators, seem to be working well in simulations of the past cycles behaviours.

The resultant of these metrics are showing 15th of April as a potential topping date. To give you an idea of how fluid these dates are, yesterday the potential date was 26 of April. When we got to the $58400 top, the date was 15 of March. That is why my posts were very alarming by that day.

As you understand, volatility accompanied by higher prices are bringing the end of the cycle closer. If possible I will post the resultant of the metrics each day, so we all have a general idea on where we stand. These estimations are of course dubious.

My future transactions will be based in both price and time, and not only price as I did so far. This is a change of tactic as my goal is to get as closer as I can to the top. I can only dare to dream my models being useful and correct, because if they are, they will give me a massive advantage in these markets.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.
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cortomaltese
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #234 on: March 01, 2021, 03:57:18 PM »
+1

These last months, I spent 1000s of hours in order to analyse and understand the nature of this cycle and find tools that would help me identify a potential top with a decent possibility of being right. BTC is on a price discovery mode and classic Technical Analysis will need a good help from other tools. Since y axis is not helping much, I am now focusing on the x axis. That is time.

I built some new metrics. These are proprietary and a result of very intense intellectual work. Like our loyal RSI, these metrics gain or lose momentum in the depth of time and that means that today’s extrapolations will be different tomorrow. But at least, I managed to reduce randomness and noise. These metrics, or indicators, seem to be working well in simulations of the past cycles behaviours.

The resultant of these metrics are showing 15th of April as a potential topping date. To give you an idea of how fluid these dates are, yesterday the potential date was 26 of April. When we got to the $58400 top, the date was 15 of March. That is why my posts were very alarming by that day.

As you understand, volatility accompanied by higher prices are bringing the end of the cycle closer. If possible I will post the resultant of the metrics each day, so we all have a general idea on where we stand. These estimations are of course dubious.

My future transactions will be based in both price and time, and not only price as I did so far. This is a change of tactic as my goal is to get as closer as I can to the top. I can only dare to dream my models being useful and correct, because if they are, they will give me a massive advantage in these markets.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.

 Please do! Thank you!
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #235 on: March 02, 2021, 09:16:08 AM »
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The resultant of my metrics is now showing 10th of April as a potential topping date.
As it will be prudent to search for the supercillium of the top, my plan is to sell my coins some days before we get there. As we have seen in the past, after a major top, almost all platforms are crashed by helpless people trying to sell their coins. In the end, they are free to transact after falling from the cliff. We do not want to be bottled with them, and we are ready to sacrifice part of potential profits for part of safety.
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kapetan1122
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #236 on: March 02, 2021, 10:54:05 AM »
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The resultant of my metrics is now showing 10th of April as a potential topping date.
As it will be prudent to search for the supercillium of the top, my plan is to sell my coins some days before we get there. As we have seen in the past, after a major top, almost all platforms are crashed by helpless people trying to sell their coins. In the end, they are free to transact after falling from the cliff. We do not want to be bottled with them, and we are ready to sacrifice part of potential profits for part of safety.

Nikos have you taken into considoration how much money has been printed over last 12 months or so, this money needs to go somewere and if we know that some countries has printed 25% of all money printed in their history maybe this can be changing factor?
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #237 on: March 02, 2021, 11:42:47 AM »
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This thread started with a calculation of money printing on a global scale.
https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=7174.msg76201#msg76201
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arbusers
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #238 on: March 03, 2021, 07:53:33 AM »
+2

Today's metrics: April the 15th.
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DPG
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Re: Long on BTC
« Reply #239 on: March 03, 2021, 10:35:30 AM »
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My metrics say we will not see the top until much later this year.
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