2019 annual review

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VidaBlue
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VidaBlue

2019 annual review
« on: April 28, 2020, 08:45:58 AM »

Hello forum

I was on a long winter retreat in the beginning of this year. When I made it home about a month ago, the world seemed changed and sport betting as we know it, had completely stopped.

This made me tick off one item on my to-do list that I thought I would never have time for. Organization of my past data put into a 2019 review. I think it will help me a lot, once betting returns back to normal. I have attached the document to this post.

I decide to share it with you, as I think this forum is about giving and receiving. Also, if some of you find it interesting, hopefully it can lead to fruitful discussions that will benefit us all.

I would love to hear your reviews as well, expanding my views on other approaches for chasing profits on sports betting.

Regards ...
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arbusers
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arbusers

Re: 2019 annual review
« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2020, 09:27:40 AM »

A massive thank you for this post and the provision of this invaluable data. The number of comments that I want to do is immense. I will take it one by one, and let's see where this discussion goes.
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borgosh
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borgosh

Re: 2019 annual review
« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2020, 02:40:44 PM »

Hi,

First of all i would like to say thank you for this review. I think this document is the most useful and well organized collection of historical datas and facts regarding betting. To be onest i haven't seen anything like this, which is touching almost every point of this kind of betting without any harmful information for you or for others.

The last page about Forward looking statements is the kind of information which we all need in these kind of days, because it is giving us a compass regarding the future of 2020 and the importance of social life too.

Best regards,
Borgosh
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Timetochange
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Timetochange

Re: 2019 annual review
« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2020, 03:32:24 PM »

Hello,

I signed up to this forum yesterday. What a great piece of work you have put together here.

Thanks
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ilovethisforum
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ilovethisforum

Re: 2019 annual review
« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2020, 04:01:42 PM »

Vida blue thank you for this amazing review of your! I was a pleasure to read it! I wish you all the best with your goals.
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shanke
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shanke

Re: 2019 annual review
« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2020, 04:23:41 PM »

amazing, great work and very useful info¡¡
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Blackoutt777
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Blackoutt777

Re: 2019 annual review
« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2020, 04:40:02 PM »

Incredible work!
I can't say much because I'm a beginner, but the volume of your shop betting activity says it all. What a commitment!
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robotzel78
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robotzel78

Re: 2019 annual review
« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2020, 06:58:57 PM »

Nice! I didn't see something like this until now. Thanks!
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Lumberjack
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Re: 2019 annual review
« Reply #8 on: April 29, 2020, 07:36:13 AM »

Amazing work and data you share with us Vidablue, thank you.

You say in your report that you only work from Betonvalue, correct? Is it from their valuebets section or also from their surebets section?

And if you want to share, then I would like to ask which country you are from and which offline bookies you have access to?

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VidaBlue
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Re: 2019 annual review
« Reply #9 on: April 29, 2020, 08:54:48 AM »

Amazing work and data you share with us Vidablue, thank you.

You say in your report that you only work from Betonvalue, correct? Is it from their valuebets section or also from their surebets section?

And if you want to share, then I would like to ask which country you are from and which offline bookies you have access to?
Thank you Lumberjack.

I would like to answer your first question:

It is true that I only work with Betonvalue. I have been subscribing to other services simultaneously, such as rebelbetting, betburger, trademate and others, but I just found that it was too much of a mental workload. Especially from a cell phone. None of the other services are disapproved though (except from betburger via android cell phone browser). In addition to the increased mental workload, they most of the time pick up on the same arbs and such, so I would only find additional services useful in those cases where BOV isn't present.

I have had a lot of screen time with BOV. I'm used to it, so that's also why it is preferred. I'm sure that other services may do just as well, as long as the information is there.

I think that it really is important that a service presents a lot of information, instead of discarding it. BOV has some nuisances, when a match has incorrect odds, it is difficult to remove that particular match when it occurs and the screen gets all cluttered - sometimes wrong odds from a bookmaker, causes a match to come up in 100 of the 200 available slots on all kinds of different markets. It's annoying, but it is much better than the alternative, which are those value betting services that decide to filter away much information in order to present a very simplified view based on value rules that THEY set. Much important information is lost in this process I think and I disagree with some of the bets having value.

Today I am using both the valuebets section and the surebet section in BOV. I use the surebets section mostly. I sometimes randomly select bookmakers from the list, that I don't even have access to, just to see if it generates any arbs, that I may look closer into. I very often bet on soft vs soft this way. It generates the arb, and with one click you may see how the other bookmakers rate this market. You will see the history of odds movements as well. Eventually you will get a feel for what has happened and which bookmakers are weak and wrong in this kind of sport and market.

With all the above being said, my own customized scanners are increasingly important, because no service cover it all. My scanners are slow, but they present to me very specific information which is not displayed elsewhere and I only need to operate them when I am betting.
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arbusers
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Re: 2019 annual review
« Reply #10 on: April 29, 2020, 10:39:41 AM »

I would like to once again thank VidaBlue for sharing with our community his annual review. This review and style of writing are a triumph of rational thinking. There is a logic of ''If a, then b'', which works very well in a number of fields. I would also say this review is a victory of data over emotions. A victory over the self-defeating behaviour that keeps most bettors from reaching their full potential. That is one of the reasons why only 1.5% or even less, bettors are successful in the long run.

There is a number of comments that I have. I had to keep notes. I will not put all comments here at once within one post as I could lose my focus. In every post, I will touch only a couple of issues, and when these issues are covered, I will move to the next set.

Please bear with me.

I believe you should revisit the bots issue. You stopped developing them 3 years ago when this whole thing was on an embryonic phase, but now bots seem to be strong. Since your bots should be custom made, run, and operated by you only and not shared with others, I believe you could exploit some chances. Missed potential income maybe?

In regards to the hockey losing streak of May 2019, maybe it worths digging some more. I m wondering if this streak appeared in the years before 2019 because it could be a seasonal phenomenon. We have seen seasonal phenomena in football as well, some of them were analyzed and investigated here.

It is my belief e-sports will have a bright future in smart betting, and that has nothing to do with the Covid19. It seems that Covid19 is a catalyst that accelerates a trend. I m sure that already many people are exploiting this field while staying silent in the shadows. That was the story back in 2001 when arbing started, and of course in 2014-15 with the bots action.
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cigo
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Re: 2019 annual review
« Reply #11 on: April 29, 2020, 01:22:04 PM »

VidaBlue
Good work!
One think i dont agree with you.  It is not important if the work is more administrative or it based more on inovations. Final goal is one: make as much money as posible, how you do it is not important
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VidaBlue
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Re: 2019 annual review
« Reply #12 on: April 29, 2020, 02:23:06 PM »

Thank you for taking notes and showing interest @arbuser - this is exactly what I had hoped for - discussions that will lead to enlightenment

I will try to elaborate on your comments one by one ...

I believe you should revisit the bots issue ... missed potential income maybe?
I definitely should and I will do. Profits were there, but they were small. Had I continued there would have been more profit for sure. The problem is that I got bored, when one site changed the script and I had to reprogram. So I looked for some action and found it in the streets and the bot got rusty.

In regards to the hockey losing streak of May 2019, maybe it worths digging some more. I m wondering if this streak appeared in the years before 2019 because it could be a seasonal phenomenon. We have seen seasonal phenomena in football as well, some of them were analyzed and investigated here.
Actually it was mostly in football - maybe my review was a bit confusing regarding this. When have you seen seasonal streaks in football?
I have had losing streaks between christmas and new years eve, so I speculated that it could be something to do with holiday season. I have attached my analysis for june 2019. I focus on soccer, but all sports are losing. 10 parlays were placed as well - odds combined close to 2. All lost. I cannot find any pattern except that everything was losing. Maybe some of you can ... :-D

It is my belief e-sports will have a bright future in smart betting, and that has nothing to do with the Covid19. It seems that Covid19 is a catalyst that accelerates a trend. I m sure that already many people are exploiting this field while staying silent in the shadows. That was the story back in 2001 when arbing started, and of course in 2014-15 with the bots action.
E-sport also seems excellent for betting from a bookmaker's perspective, all so data based and easy to streamline. Take a look at some of the e-sport bookies. Their sites are so well set up and probably requires a minimum of maintenance. I am just a bit worried long-term whether there's enough mug punter money to pay for all this (+ the smart bettor's profits)? - Is it a different kind of customers who bet e-sports?
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arbusers
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Re: 2019 annual review
« Reply #13 on: April 29, 2020, 05:02:14 PM »

Thank you for commenting VidaBlue.

I mentioned seasonal phenomena and not seasonal streaks. I m based on observation to say that during the season there are 2 periods when things don't work ''properly''. Money flow is not following the usual channels from Softs to Sharps and so on. For me, these periods are late Oct-mid Nov and also in March when the March madness bonus period is supposed to take place. This season was abruptly interrupted by the Covid 19 crisis, so obviously things will change. In addition, we have the World Cup that will take place in the Autumn or Winter and this will further disrupt markets for at least 2 years (1 before, 1 after). In addition, I asked Andrew Beasley to investigate some more about the scoring periods and he came back with this: https://arbusers.com/portal/changing-patterns-of-goal-times/
Now, I requested Andrew to analyze a huge database and he is currently working on it. This will take more time and I don't know where this analysis is going to lead. I guess we will all know when Andrew is ready.

The losing streak was monstrous but I have seen even more ugly. This is where you have to be emotionless.

As for e-sports I see how they integrate to mug bettors in shops and online, and that makes me think there is a lot of bacon to be taken home. I believe it has a bright future for at least some years.

I am adding a new comment here, in regards to the NFL betting with the help of an expert. I am noticing from various sources that it is becoming very popular to copy the action of professional syndicates as long there is a reliable source of generating bets, and enough liquidity to take the action. We are running a project like this in a beta phase as we speak, and the results are astonishing. In this case, we are not innovators but imitators. It works very well both ways. It is astonishing to see how many types of value betting is out there.
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Niklaus
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Re: 2019 annual review
« Reply #14 on: April 30, 2020, 12:00:59 AM »

Hi arbusers
I am interested in the part where you say copying betting syndicate activity. Is that something opened for the public to do?
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