Soccer O/U markets

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VidaBlue
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VidaBlue

Soccer O/U markets
« on: May 16, 2020, 03:17:04 PM »

I have had unexpected deficits on the soccer O/U markets and I am trying to make sense of it.

Often this market swings a lot back and forth for the medium liquidity leagues days before or even at the day of the game, so it seems quite volatile and unpredictable.

I placed a cautious bet on O 2.5 @ 2.8, match Kalev vs Narva on Tuesday, using this sharp as reference see attachment. By the looks of it, the bet was a very good one, since the O 2.5 bet is now averaging at around 1.4. However, I could easily have placed a U 2.5 @ 1.80, had I betted half an hour earlier using the same sharp reference.

I have seen these up and down patterns a lot in the soccer O/U markets, so I am wondering if it is possible to become more knowledgeable about the mecanisms triggering such behaviour. The ultimate purpose of course, is to avoid betting in a market that will swing back or choose the other side to bet. For some reason I am suspecting that it could be some sort of manipulation.

Does anyone have suggestions to why these markets swing so much back and forth?

It is not a question of completely avoiding these markets or waiting to bet until close to game start. It is about understanding the mecanisms that take place.

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Alfa1234
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Alfa1234

Re: Soccer O/U markets
« Reply #1 on: May 16, 2020, 03:52:20 PM »

The markets are being manipulated by certain individuals and groups, betting the market up or down and then waiting for bigger limits closer to kickoff to bet a certain side again.  I would suggest staying away from valuebetting these.  It can also happen in bigger markets by the way.

The odd graph will look like the one you are showing there, but it's extremely hard to know whether the market was off or simply being manipulated while the move is happening.

"Usually" betting the side that went up a lot in a certain time not close to kickoff is the correct value bet, the side going down again close to kickoff will also result in value if you bet it soon enough.  It should be easy to lock in a profit arbing these.
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VidaBlue
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VidaBlue

Re: Soccer O/U markets
« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2020, 04:45:46 PM »

I would suggest staying away from valuebetting these.
I won't.

"Usually" betting the side that went up a lot in a certain time not close to kickoff is the correct value bet, the side going down again close to kickoff will also result in value if you bet it soon enough.  It should be easy to lock in a profit arbing these.
Yet "usually" only needs to be true in like 60 % of the cases or so, for value betting to be extremely effective taking this into account. Thank you for this Alfa1234. I have taken notes of this observation of yours and I'll keep watching.
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arctrading
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arctrading

Re: Soccer O/U markets
« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2020, 11:56:14 PM »

I would say getting over 2.5 at odds 2.8 is very very good value. But because im from this country then i know the info also related to those teams. Overall, i monitor a lot of those small/medium markets and usually end up taking prematch overs bets myself. I would say that market is not off but rather its the info that moves it. Same goes with your kalev v narva bet. Regarding with estonian soccer then i know, many years ago we used to bet prematch also for estonian games based on info but was very hard because once opening lines went out, some other informed bettors took also advantage from it.  So it was kinda fight of who was faster and also accounts went really fast...

Overall, i suggest to become familiar with those smaller liquidity teams and with their past performance so you can take more advantage betting on overs prematch. Sometimes those movements are fake but most of the time not, so by experience you will become aware which ones to take as a great value and which ones to pass.. Also If you have good set of soft bookies then this should be no issue to make decent roi with those prematch valuebets for overs.

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VidaBlue
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VidaBlue

Re: Soccer O/U markets
« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2020, 09:14:20 AM »

Thank you arctrading.

It is nice to get a perspective from someone who actually knows this league. So the way I see it, the lines are moved drastically in a short time by either info, fake info, wrong odds (leading to arbing action with sharp) or manipulation. I believe that patterns should be slightly different from one another, which is key. It happened with the Augsburg - Paderborn (Bundesliga) last night as well which is a much bigger league, although the tendancy was not as pronounced. Pinnacle seems to govern very much how the market odds change, but it is thought-provoking that the liquidity at pinnacle is only 250-500 $ in these cases. It should be a cheap way for groups to manipulate market odds, via pinnacle, in order to exploit the much higher market liquidity and maybe it happens a lot. In this case it must be quite a nuisance to bookmakers.

I'll keep collecting patterns such that there can be some comparison - maybe certain leagues or teams are re-appearing and for those I could go into past performance as you suggest.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2020, 09:16:20 AM by VidaBlue » Logged
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