Questions about value betting

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arvan
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arvan

Questions about value betting
« on: June 15, 2020, 09:08:59 AM »

Hello everyone,i play poker for a living last 6 years and i recently started value betiing with the intention to go full time if results are good.I decided to focus on live betting  because i think i can find an edge easier comparing to prematch games.I do not use any tools,i just try to evaluate odds and find value bets during a game.I have a sample of 700 bets,many markets included(all ah markets,moneyline etc) and my roi is almost 6%.I use an asian broker and rarely bet365 and bwin(around 10% of my bets).I opened this topic because as a newbie in the bet world i have some questions:
 1) What sample of bets is good to have a safe estimation about roi?
2)  Are there any useful tools for in play games?.I am interesting more about tools that provide useful statistical information during a game and not so much for tools that find valuebets in the soft books.
3) I recently spent a lot of time finding free tipsters who can beat asian books on a sample of > 500 bets.Is it + ev to follow them or are there traps that i still cant see?
4) Any other recommendation regarding live betting education ( books,articles etc) would be much appreciated.
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CharlieSheen99
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CharlieSheen99

Re: Questions about value betting
« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2020, 12:07:03 PM »

Avoid the point (3)

There are some tipsters that win in the long haul, this is truth, but it's so hard to find them, and during the research, you will lose a lot of time and effort. At least this is my experience.

IMO, just focus in Surebetting and Valuebetting.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Questions about value betting
« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2020, 10:18:54 PM »

1) What sample of bets is good to have a safe estimation about roi?
I think you need to start asking, how much is safe? Theoretically, you're never a 100% safe, but of course, the more bets the better and eventually you'll be able to quantify how likely it is that your system is working (or not working). I use a Monte Carlo simulation type of approach to give me comfort. I am not sure if such an approach is a recommended one, but I believe it has worked for me at least:

Once I have a sample with the same characteristics of some size, I will estimate the probability for this ROI to be a result of a system that works (or the opposite), and not by coincidence and randomness.

I will run these past bets through a simulation N x 1000 times (or a number that will get consistent results), using the exact same odds and stakes that I have in my bet history. First run uses my actual EV when I made the bets, and the subsequent ones assume a different EVs such as zero EV (like a 0% arb, where both sides are equally right). When I then compare with the real ROI achieved from these bets, I will have an idea, a probability, if the system worked as expected.

For instance: say I believe to have used a system that has given me an average 5% edge in soccer 1X2. I have achieved 2000 bets from this system, my ROI was 4%. My simulations show me that only 0.5% of the time, I would have achieved such ROI from complete randomness with EV=0, but I would indeed achieve 4% ROI, or better, more than 60% of the time, assuming my 5% edge is true. This gives me comfort, that EV may be lower than 5%, but it is very unlikely that the system does NOT work.

Another example: I believe to have found a huge edge in basket 1st quarter. My average EV was 14% but my result was a staggering ROI = 33% from 50 bets. This is not a big sample, but I still want to know how often I would get such a result by coincidence if my EV is -5%, 0%, 5%, 10% instead. Or in other other words, whether I have been just lucky. I run the simulations and I find that it is very unlikely that that I would get 33% ROI if EV is -5% and 0%, it is still highly unlikely that the EV is only 5% or less. Actually I get the likelihood above 95% that the EV is 5% or much more. With such a probability I feel comfortable to put an additional 50% on the stake sizes in such bets.

With your sample of 700 bets and 6% ROI it seems quite likely that your system works. I encourage you to start dividing this sample into sub groups, such as the moneylines sample, the ah sample. You should also try and divide into sports and leagues as well. You will find that some of your subsamples perform better than others and you should then start evaluating the probability for that to be a coincidence or not. If you start doubting if you have an edge at all, don't stop, just bet smaller stakes. Your data will be your most valuable asset.

Instead of doing prematch and bonus hunting softbooks with all the limitation hassles that come with it, you have shown very good judgement starting off with a sharp/asian broker right away and focusing on live betting. You should be excited and proud to have achieved almost 6% roi this way as a newbie. It is very promising.
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arctrading
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arctrading

Re: Questions about value betting
« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2020, 11:19:13 PM »

Hello everyone,i play poker for a living last 6 years and i recently started value betiing with the intention to go full time if results are good.I decided to focus on live betting  because i think i can find an edge easier comparing to prematch games.I do not use any tools,i just try to evaluate odds and find value bets during a game.I have a sample of 700 bets,many markets included(all ah markets,moneyline etc) and my roi is almost 6%.I use an asian broker and rarely bet365 and bwin(around 10% of my bets).I opened this topic because as a newbie in the bet world i have some questions:
 1) What sample of bets is good to have a safe estimation about roi?
2)  Are there any useful tools for in play games?.I am interesting more about tools that provide useful statistical information during a game and not so much for tools that find valuebets in the soft books.
3) I recently spent a lot of time finding free tipsters who can beat asian books on a sample of > 500 bets.Is it + ev to follow them or are there traps that i still cant see?
4) Any other recommendation regarding live betting education ( books,articles etc) would be much appreciated.

1) Depends on your avg bets per day/month. If you bet 20bets per month then its pretty decent sample. If 200 per month then its ok and if 300-400 per month then can be just a good run. Im on around 10% long run on sharps mostly.
2) I use statisticsports.com site. It should be advertised here also below other servies ors. Cant really do without it anymore so would say its pretty decent.
3)Have not worked for me so far. Even with paid Asia tipsters, the ones with good sample size and been around for a quite ok time. The main problem is if they tip prematch then usually its early markets so quite small liquidty and odds drop quite fast. So far there has been only 1 pure pinnacle tipster who im with profit(basketball and i dont hit half of the time the lines/odds he tips). The other Asian  tipsters im not, even tho their verified ROI is over 13%. I will point this ive tried 5 different Asian tipsters who are top on tipping site. Just cant get same lines when bots insta take them because of such limits...  My recommendation is just skip asian tipster unless youre sure you can catch same lines. The really good ones are not in tipping business anyways..
4) dunno, have never read books about betting
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Sandica9
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Re: Questions about value betting
« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2020, 11:54:26 PM »

Guys, why are you talking about Yield and call it ROI? These are different things..
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VidaBlue
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Re: Questions about value betting
« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2020, 07:13:01 AM »

Thank you Sandica9 for pointing that out. I realize now, that I have always misused roi. In the above, it is yield of course.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2020, 07:16:32 AM by VidaBlue » Logged
arvan
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arvan

Re: Questions about value betting
« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2020, 08:07:20 AM »

Thank you guys!

1) Vidablue: When i started,my purpose was to bet on very strict odd range but i didnt follow it.My current sample has a range of 1.3-3 odds.That means that any simulation will not show accurate results if i put the average odds.For that reason i have created different groups of odds and markets,as you advised.There are markets with negative yield and i decided to virtual bet on them(include them to my excel sheet to track performance but not putting real money till results turn to positive).My plan for next year is to focus on 5 leagues,not the big ones,in order to increase my prematch value betting.I have high confidence on my country's league(greek superleague),i have a small sample of 130 bets with 12% yield prematch greek games.I have to do the same with at least 3-4 more leagues,i will try to find leagues that are similar to greek superleague( f.e italian serie b,valcan leagues,turkish superleague have more similarities comparing to scandinavian or uk leagues).If i do that,i think that my live betting performance will be better on these leagues.

2) Arctrading: Thanks for recommendation,i probably agree with you and Charliesheen99 about tipsters,too much time wasting for no reward potential.I never get odds lower than tipster's but its hard to catch it so i end up taking very small amount of bets.About average bets/month,if i go full time i am planning to be a high volume bettor because i do not have the roll to be selective.There is always the risk of taking - ev bets and facing big swings but i have to deal with that.

3) Sandica9:I am coming from poker,the only term there is roi which is the profit/investment.F.e you play 100 tours with overall buy in 1000$ and you end up with a 200 net profit,then your roi is 20%.I guess roi is the overall increase % of starting roll and not the profit per unit investment.So lets say i start a year with 1000 roll and stake overall 100k with 1000 net profit at the end.Roi is 100% while yield is 1%,is it correct? So yield is the correct term.
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Sandica9
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Sandica9

Re: Questions about value betting
« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2020, 08:35:09 AM »

Hi arvan,
I have a poker background as well but I come from cash games. The bb/100 is a Yield. In tourneys it's ofc how you re saying.
Good luck with your betting!
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Mtipster
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Re: Questions about value betting
« Reply #8 on: June 16, 2020, 11:27:10 AM »

I wouldn't neglect poker, if I were you.
Only 3 years ago, I'd say online poker will go down first, but smart betting took several huge hits in the meantime and it seems it will only go further down the drain. It seems every few weeks  you get a new email from agents about cutting max stakes (in form of forced position taking) or one of the "sharps" quitting. Who are the sharps nowadays, anyway (besides pinnacle)?

In the end, if hypothesis is both online poker and smart betting will go down, as AI develops and appropriate hardware becomes affordable for masses, poker has one huge advantage - you can always play live! So, don't fall behind learning curve. ;)
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VidaBlue
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VidaBlue

Re: Questions about value betting
« Reply #9 on: June 16, 2020, 12:13:48 PM »

It's probably a good idea to specialize yourself in those leagues as you mention.

1) Vidablue: When i started,my purpose was to bet on very strict odd range but i didnt follow it.My current sample has a range of 1.3-3 odds.That means that any simulation will not show accurate results if i put the average odds.
When I simulate, I do not use average odds, because I have it all registered. I use the exact odds and stakes that I used when placing the bets. So, for instance, for a particular bet I would have registered odd 3.3, stake 100 eur, true odds of 3.0 (probability of 33%), I will let the computer roll the dice for EACH bet in MANY simulation runs. Looking at the distribution of overall yield, will give me an idea of how probable it is that my overall result (yield) is indeed correlated to my assumption, my EV.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2020, 12:50:08 PM by VidaBlue » Logged
arvan
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arvan

Re: Questions about value betting
« Reply #10 on: June 16, 2020, 02:02:36 PM »

 
  Vidablue:It makes sense,i ll try to implement it this way,thanks again!

Mtipster:Poker remains my main source of income,i can say that it is getting harder and harder to make same money like before 5 years.Many things have changed to the downside but the most important is that field gets better and better.Regurals study gto while recreationals are better than 2010 average reg.I totally agree that live poker has high potential but it isnt a choice for me because of the limited legal live games in my country.I am aware of the situation on the betting world and i know that i choose the worst time to focus on it.Results will show if i continue and give up and do something else.Atm i play soft cash games on asian application and some spin and goes(which used to be my main format for several years).One big advantage that sports betting has vs poker is that the recreational field level remains always the same.Its not the bookie that you have to win but the average bettor.I really hope that i will find reasons to not quit betting very soon.
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