Experience with Rebelbetting ValueBetting

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AlZahir
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AlZahir

Experience with Rebelbetting ValueBetting
« on: June 20, 2020, 11:57:32 PM »

I am interested if anyone else has used the 2 months in the price of 1 promotion for RebelBetting ValueBetting software and is now having second thoughts and has some doubts about their services' quality.

First of all, their "Profit Guarantee".

https://imgur.com/a/VJscwn6

Honestly, I believe that if the service was as good as it is being shown by them, the profit guarantee would be more assuring then "if you don't make profit and wasted your month and money we will give you another month so you can waste more time and money" which it looks like right now. Additonally, they would not find themselves having to add this to their terms and conditions.

Quote
All subscriptions are non-refundable. All sales are final.

Moreover there are very specific details on how to get this "Profit Guarantee"

https://imgur.com/a/52NxynX

The problem here, is that these are not the default settings. After sign up my stakes were set to 2% not 1% which is shown as the requirement that has to be met in order to get that "Profit Guarantee".

Another thing: Value Dissapearing.

So I have had multiple situations like this:

https://imgur.com/a/WqJiQ9v

I have been alerted about a bet available, I have went to the bookmaker to put it on, and after I placed the bet I went back to the RebelBetting website to log it in their tracker, but I found that even though the odds are still exactly the same, the service is saying that the "Value Dissapeared".

And the main issue: Website constantly displaying incorrect odds.

It has now been on multiple occasions that I have been getting alerts and going to the bookmaker only to find that the odds are completely wrong. Moreover, Rebelbetting's service takes sometimes ages to say that it actually is not a value bet anymore.

https://imgur.com/a/d1eTqK7
https://imgur.com/a/SHzAPBT
https://imgur.com/a/pGQibRu
https://imgur.com/a/9vp9x9T

This is just a couple of them taken in the last 2-3 days, there is multiple of them like this every single day. You'd think that for the price of £69.00 which is quite high compared to other alert services you'd get more value and if they were to advertise something such as a "Profit Guarantee" it would have been an actual one to at least cover the subscription.

So far I feel like I have put over £100 down the drain.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Experience with Rebelbetting ValueBetting
« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2020, 09:14:45 AM »

The fundamental issue that value betting services such as Rebel Betting is facing nowadays, is that their value references are becoming obscure. As stated on their website:

"Value betting is taking advantage of overpriced odds that are higher than their true probability."

Noone can argue against that, but how can they know the true probability? When Rebel Betting was launched a decade ago, things were more black and white with regards to sharp and soft bookmakers. There were sharp markets with huge liquidity and the sharpness of these were later well documented. That's how value betting services arose. Correct me if I'm wrong, but value betting services are built upon these documented sharp references.

Nowadays, sharp bookmakers such as pinnacle offer markets with very low liquidity. For instance E-sports with max bet of around 100 GBP. In many of the cases, I don't believe that pinnacle or their customers have much clue about these markets and that's why some limits are so low, in order to offer many markets, but reduce risk. When you see "Value Dissappearing" from a small market, it could simply be a random customer/gambler who just moved this "sharp" line by placing a small bet on pinnacle. It is the similar reason for a value bet to appear. On top of that, it seems logical that many soft bookmakers have evolved in the meantime and now are better than before in setting the correct odds.

I believe that using these value betting services can still lead to profitability, but it is crucial for the bettor to know which markets to avoid because the implied true probability is very uncertain. Value betting services could continuously evaluate which markets have reliable sharp references and filter out those who haven't, if they still are to provide profit guarantee to their customers. However, this may be a very challenging task. If they are unable to do this, they could provide for each bet, information on why this is a value bet. This would however remove the lovely simplicity that many customers probably prefer.

Rebel betting and some other services have no transparency in how their true probability is calculated for each particular bet, and for this reason I personally prefer a service where I have more information and can decide for myself.
« Last Edit: June 22, 2020, 09:17:43 AM by VidaBlue » Logged
Inferno
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Inferno

Re: Experience with Rebelbetting ValueBetting
« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2020, 02:36:52 PM »

The fundamental issue that value betting services such as Rebel Betting is facing nowadays, is that their value references are becoming obscure. As stated on their website:

"Value betting is taking advantage of overpriced odds that are higher than their true probability."

Noone can argue against that, but how can they know the true probability? When Rebel Betting was launched a decade ago, things were more black and white with regards to sharp and soft bookmakers. There were sharp markets with huge liquidity and the sharpness of these were later well documented. That's how value betting services arose. Correct me if I'm wrong, but value betting services are built upon these documented sharp references.

Nowadays, sharp bookmakers such as pinnacle offer markets with very low liquidity. For instance E-sports with max bet of around 100 GBP. In many of the cases, I don't believe that pinnacle or their customers have much clue about these markets and that's why some limits are so low, in order to offer many markets, but reduce risk. When you see "Value Dissappearing" from a small market, it could simply be a random customer/gambler who just moved this "sharp" line by placing a small bet on pinnacle. It is the similar reason for a value bet to appear. On top of that, it seems logical that many soft bookmakers have evolved in the meantime and now are better than before in setting the correct odds.

I believe that using these value betting services can still lead to profitability, but it is crucial for the bettor to know which markets to avoid because the implied true probability is very uncertain. Value betting services could continuously evaluate which markets have reliable sharp references and filter out those who haven't, if they still are to provide profit guarantee to their customers. However, this may be a very challenging task. If they are unable to do this, they could provide for each bet, information on why this is a value bet. This would however remove the lovely simplicity that many customers probably prefer.

Rebel betting and some other services have no transparency in how their true probability is calculated for each particular bet, and for this reason I personally prefer a service where I have more information and can decide for myself.

Both Betburger and Rebelbetting offers same service with "true odds" which are mystery and if you ask them how they know which odd is true they will reply "It's a secret" - you can try asking. All this is rediculous and using their valuebetting services is pure gambling and I don't know how people still trust such jokes like a "secret true odds".  :o All I see is lies for the lambs to get their money. I am almost sure that they are simply getting the average odd from all bookmakers and are classifying it as "true odd" which is.. no words about it. Good luck to everyone :)
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RB-Simon
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Re: Experience with Rebelbetting ValueBetting
« Reply #3 on: June 30, 2020, 01:08:08 PM »

I believe that if the service was as good as it is being shown by them, the profit guarantee would be more assuring
The profit guarantee gives you a new month every month you don't profit. Forever.
You won't find many investment services that give you that kind of guarantee.
We also have a large number of members posting their results in our community.

But if you're new to RebelBetting, I can understand you're hesitant to subscribe the first month. This is why we will launch a 14 day free demo for everyone in the coming weeks.

The problem here, is that these are not the default settings
We have improved the default settings and forgot to adjust the text. Fixed now. You would still have gotten the guarantee of course.

Value Dissapeared
This is because the true/sharp odds have moved indicating that this bet is no longer a value bet. This is working as expected and you should not place the bet.

on multiple occasions that I have been getting alerts and going to the bookmaker only to find that the odds are completely wrong
This is something you will have to get used to. Kambi bookmakers (like 888bet) usually update their bets within 10-30 seconds of the value appearing, so you need to be fast. I'm using them daily, and I find that I almost always (95%) manage to place the bet before the odds move. If you're using several Kambi bookmakers, you might only have time to place the bet on one or two bookmakers.

If you email support we can take a look at your bet tracker and give some advice on how to improve and give you another free month (perhaps after the summer when the leagues start again).

Best of luck!

Simon
Founder RebelBetting
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RB-Simon
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RB-Simon

Re: Experience with Rebelbetting ValueBetting
« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2020, 02:19:13 PM »

Nowadays, sharp bookmakers such as pinnacle offer markets with very low liquidity. For instance E-sports with max bet of around 100 GBP.
This might have been the case some years ago. Today esport limits are at least $500 for larger tournaments. Probably higher for the top events.

Here are some esport stats from our users (7400 bets since launch in May 2020):

Yield 6,5% (more than double the average)
Closing line value 5.4% (so we're running a bit hot)
Beat the closing line 80.9% of the time

Rebel betting and some other services have no transparency in how their true probability is calculated for each particular bet, and for this reason I personally prefer a service where I have more information and can decide for myself.
Here we explain how we find our value bets: https://www.rebelbetting.com/value-betting-guide
Here we list a few sharp bookmakers: https://www.rebelbetting.com/blog/difference-soft-sharp-bookmakers

We don't currently list exactly what sharp bookmakers we're using, for the simple reason that we don't want to give away our business advantage to our competitors. We might reconsider this in the future, at least for professional users.

I believe that using these value betting services can still lead to profitability, but it is crucial for the bettor to know which markets to avoid because the implied true probability is very uncertain. Value betting services could continuously evaluate which markets have reliable sharp references and filter out those who haven't, if they still are to provide profit guarantee to their customers. However, this may be a very challenging task.

This is a very good idea, and something we've been wanting to do for a long time. Soon we have enough closing line data to show to the users exactly the profitability of this bookmaker + market combination.

I don't agree we should filter out anything automatically however. Since profitability can change over time, if we filter them out no one will notice when they turn profitable again. It's better just to inform and let the user decide for themselves.

Thanks for the feedback, and if you have more ideas to discuss feel free to email me at simon at rebelbetting.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Experience with Rebelbetting ValueBetting
« Reply #5 on: July 01, 2020, 01:17:42 PM »

Nowadays, sharp bookmakers such as pinnacle offer markets with very low liquidity. For instance E-sports with max bet of around 100 GBP.
This might have been the case some years ago. Today esport limits are at least $500 for larger tournaments. Probably higher for the top events.
I don't disagree that esport limits are this high. Live betting at some cs:go matches will get you even $5000 limits. My point is that the 3 out of 5 screenshots which AlZahir presented are indeed low liquidity esport markets. For instance, right now as I'm writing this post, the limit at pinnacle on the LOL-match ENCE vs Godsent 4 hours from now is indeed close to $150 and not $500. If I were to randomly gamble at pinnacle spending 100$, my action could easily move this line 15%, thus producing a temporary "value bet opportunity" until it disappears by another pinnacle user arbing or value betting the other side.

Your user stats surely have a nice positive yield, but I doubt that your users achieved those results choosing to bet in any market that pops up.

We don't currently list exactly what sharp bookmakers we're using, for the simple reason that we don't want to give away our business advantage to our competitors. We might reconsider this in the future, at least for professional users.
This is paramount in my opinion and hopefully you will strive for transparency. The list of softs and sharps is not black and white. A bookmaker is sharp depending on liquidity, type of sport, type of market among other things. Your may take such things into account, but seeing AlZahir's screenshots and the markets involved makes me lose some faith. It is very uncomfortable to value bet, not knowing in each case how this assumption was made. For this reason, when using paid services, I prefer this kind of transparency or simply value betting via arbs.

Kind regards ...
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arctrading
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arctrading

Re: Experience with Rebelbetting ValueBetting
« Reply #6 on: July 01, 2020, 08:00:41 PM »

Nowadays, sharp bookmakers such as pinnacle offer markets with very low liquidity. For instance E-sports with max bet of around 100 GBP.
This might have been the case some years ago. Today esport limits are at least $500 for larger tournaments. Probably higher for the top events.
I don't disagree that esport limits are this high. Live betting at some cs:go matches will get you even $5000 limits. My point is that the 3 out of 5 screenshots which AlZahir presented are indeed low liquidity esport markets. For instance, right now as I'm writing this post, the limit at pinnacle on the LOL-match ENCE vs Godsent 4 hours from now is indeed close to $150 and not $500. If I were to randomly gamble at pinnacle spending 100$, my action could easily move this line 15%, thus producing a temporary "value bet opportunity" until it disappears by another pinnacle user arbing or value betting the other side.



Kind regards ...

I must agree with vidablue regarding with esport limits. If we talk some tier 1 games like summit etc which is on now, then yeah sure, 1k limits are rather norm and one could even bet atleast 500 with odds 4. But most value is and will be found from those smaller games, like ESEA, some cups etc where lower tier teams play. Then for those games, pre limits are often top 200eur per click on pinny. If this 6% Yield is on big tier games(like summit or blast) then this is huge value indeed. :)
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RB-Simon
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RB-Simon

Re: Experience with Rebelbetting ValueBetting
« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2020, 10:42:33 AM »

If I were to randomly gamble at pinnacle spending 100$, my action could easily move this line 15%, thus producing a temporary "value bet opportunity" until it disappears by another pinnacle user arbing or value betting the other side.

I agree this is a potential risk, but only for early markets with low liquidity. In your example, you won't be able to move the line if there's thousands of dollars placed already.

A possible solution we've been considering is to show the user the "tier level" of the match, when the odds was created (if it's very early market) and even the max bet size (if this data is available).

I agree and generally favor transparency, and letting the users make informed decisions.

However, most of our users are not professionals, which we need to consider as well. They need less noise and more guidance. The solution is of course to segment the product into a beginner and a professional version that give you all the information.
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