Is the trend your friend?

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VidaBlue
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Is the trend your friend?
« on: June 28, 2020, 06:42:19 PM »

"The trend is your friend" (until it ends) is a common saying among traders, believing that price movements may follow trends and that the trader should become "friends" with the trend betting with it and not against it, until the friendship ends.

I'm wondering if such saying is worth considering in value betting. For instance, I often see cs:go prematch odds gradually move from 5 to 2 in what seems to be a slow downtrend in series of lower highs over some days. For this reason I currently add a little to the stake size, if the odd price seems to be in a downtrend. Similarly, I would reduce the stake if there's no downtrend or an a uptrend.

The approach is not very consistent as estimating the trends is just done visually without any rules. Therefore the possible effect on doing this is not documented either.

What do the value betting community think? Is the trend your friend?
« Last Edit: June 28, 2020, 06:46:23 PM by VidaBlue » Logged
arctrading
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Re: Is the trend your friend?
« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2020, 05:21:15 PM »

"The trend is your friend" (until it ends) is a common saying among traders, believing that price movements may follow trends and that the trader should become "friends" with the trend betting with it and not against it, until the friendship ends.

I'm wondering if such saying is worth considering in value betting. For instance, I often see cs:go prematch odds gradually move from 5 to 2 in what seems to be a slow downtrend in series of lower highs over some days. For this reason I currently add a little to the stake size, if the odd price seems to be in a downtrend. Similarly, I would reduce the stake if there's no downtrend or an a uptrend.

The approach is not very consistent as estimating the trends is just done visually without any rules. Therefore the possible effect on doing this is not documented either.

What do the value betting community think? Is the trend your friend?

I would say it works but limits usually not the best. So far ive been doing it with some soccer leagues im following and with ok success. Usually the early downtrends for my leagues offer valuable information that is not public at this moment. But i do spot those at opening odds time so for example home odds are 2.2 and CO is 1.4 and i bet at odds around 1.9. Regarding with CSGO then what mostly matters and makes such "trends" to happen is teams current forms, last matches and performances. So yes, ive noticed such drops myself also but not taken advantage from it simply because CSGO or any other esport is not like normal sports. Team A who had good performance in their last 3 games and good odds drop could simply choke their next game against worst team, losing 0-2 etc. Not much of this happening on soccer or other sports tho. For example, a 2x better team vs 2x worst team, 2x better team odds drop from 2 to 1.4 and the end up losing 0-2, not even winning a map. This in comparison is basically same as a team losing against half reserves 0-4... So basically if you see such a drop on CSGO markets it could be 2 possibilities: 1 is that maybe game fixed or the opposite team is playing with stand-on; 2. the team has performed very well on same level opponents and bookies have not modeled it in. Sometimes there are also new teams without much past records so bookies make them quite underdogs, offering good values. For example, one such team was HONORIS and bookies offered quite good handicaps for them. So option nr 2 is good if u see a good drop on such team with not much past official record, good chance some insiders bet on that team who know more than public.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Is the trend your friend?
« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2020, 01:28:09 PM »

Thank you for your reply arctrading. Your perceptions are very interesting. They actually fit well into my results where the underdogs (above odds 3) have a very positive yield. Probably the models that the bookmakers use have a hard time favouring new teams.
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arctrading
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Re: Is the trend your friend?
« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2020, 08:08:07 PM »

Thank you for your reply arctrading. Your perceptions are very interesting. They actually fit well into my results where the underdogs (above odds 3) have a very positive yield. Probably the models that the bookmakers use have a hard time favouring new teams.

Yes, they cant basically implement new teams/teams with little to no official past records for few month into their modelling same way as they could for a team like mousesports etc. . Thats why the limits arent good also because only minority has any clue whatsoever how those teams could perform. But if you follow smart money then those games offer quite nice values nevertheless :)
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