Gold and silver (physical or not)

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stevie
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stevie

Gold and silver (physical or not)
« on: July 24, 2020, 01:11:18 PM »
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I don't see much love here for these two and there should be some now that communism is at its finest.

Since the first QEs, which were basically nothing compared to what is happening now one should have accumulated some precious metals in one form or the other (physical, ETFs, mining company stocks, more).

For complete newbies what you need to know is simple: The precious metals are currency and of the kind that is not ridiculed by central banks by printing, printing and well printing.

Gold is near its all time usd highs (has broken it in other currencies) these days with silver rallying hard but staying away from its high of 50 usd per ounce.

Personally i am a fan of the physical while i dont mind me also some digital placements on palladium, platinum and lithium.

Every metal with its unique attributes and if you like me believe that oil and gas might be less relevant in the years to come then its good to research these options.

Of all the news outlets covering the topic i'd say kitco are leading while traditional outlets like cnbc and bloomberg mentioning the precious only after some big rise.

If you are in an obscure country your only option might be to buy some sovereigns which are not a bad option at all if/when there is a dollar collapse.
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Alfa1234
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Re: Gold and silver (physical or not)
« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2020, 01:40:11 PM »
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IMHO this is one of the great investing fallacies and the whole "buy gold/silver to protect yourself from a dollar/euro/whatever currency crash" is inherently incorrect.

If the dollar should crash (or the euro or whatever), the entire world economy will be in shambles.  Banks will collapse, economies will collapse, governments will collapse and countries will go bankrupt...with it, the food supply and distribution systems.  I fail to see what you'll do with your gold/silver bars or gold ETF's in that case.  They will be worthless too.  You won't be able to trade them for seeds, food or weapons.
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Mtipster
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Re: Gold and silver (physical or not)
« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2020, 02:23:03 PM »
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Most of "investing gurus" except those directly involved in metals (like Peter Schiff), advise against it. Even uncle Warren gave his famous baseball infield cube explanation.
I don't get it, looking at history charts, gold looks like a great protection in crisis. Yes, we can argue that you should invest in idea you support, your vision of better future world, but what if we just want to protect our property?

What Alfa1234 said is definitely possible, I heard legends about gold trading "pound of yellow for pound of yellow" during WWII, where other "yellow" was corn flour, but are we really facing that kind of crisis? I don't think that kind of global hunger is possible without WWIII.
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stevie
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Re: Gold and silver (physical or not)
« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2020, 03:59:29 PM »
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IMHO this is one of the great investing fallacies and the whole "buy gold/silver to protect yourself from a dollar/euro/whatever currency crash" is inherently incorrect.

If the dollar should crash (or the euro or whatever), the entire world economy will be in shambles.  Banks will collapse, economies will collapse, governments will collapse and countries will go bankrupt...with it, the food supply and distribution systems.  I fail to see what you'll do with your gold/silver bars or gold ETF's in that case.  They will be worthless too.  You won't be able to trade them for seeds, food or weapons.

Wow. Just wow in almost every single line of this post. I was thinking to start replying to this but it might not be worth the time investment. I will give you one hint though: How many different currencies have been world reserves and how many times has the world reserve currency been changed?

Start there and you might change your mind a little bit. My two respectful cents.
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stevie
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Re: Gold and silver (physical or not)
« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2020, 04:03:17 PM »
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Most of "investing gurus" except those directly involved in metals (like Peter Schiff), advise against it. Even uncle Warren gave his famous baseball infield cube explanation.
I don't get it, looking at history charts, gold looks like a great protection in crisis. Yes, we can argue that you should invest in idea you support, your vision of better future world, but what if we just want to protect our property?

What Alfa1234 said is definitely possible, I heard legends about gold trading "pound of yellow for pound of yellow" during WWII, where other "yellow" was corn flour, but are we really facing that kind of crisis? I don't think that kind of global hunger is possible without WWIII.

I usually think ideas and not people. I am not a Musk fanboy or a Warren fanboy or a Schiff fanboy. You might want to rethink on changing your focus from people quotes to understanding economy.

It really scares me if this community goes after bonds and Tesla and Netflix. I mean come on guys are we the average guy with a bag that waits for the Musk tweet to scream what a smart guy that is? In my opinion not and we should not be.
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Alfa1234
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Re: Gold and silver (physical or not)
« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2020, 11:47:43 PM »
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IMHO this is one of the great investing fallacies and the whole "buy gold/silver to protect yourself from a dollar/euro/whatever currency crash" is inherently incorrect.

If the dollar should crash (or the euro or whatever), the entire world economy will be in shambles.  Banks will collapse, economies will collapse, governments will collapse and countries will go bankrupt...with it, the food supply and distribution systems.  I fail to see what you'll do with your gold/silver bars or gold ETF's in that case.  They will be worthless too.  You won't be able to trade them for seeds, food or weapons.

Wow. Just wow in almost every single line of this post. I was thinking to start replying to this but it might not be worth the time investment. I will give you one hint though: How many different currencies have been world reserves and how many times has the world reserve currency been changed?

Start there and you might change your mind a little bit. My two respectful cents.

Tell me, how many times in modern history has the world currency changed and how many times has the previous world currency collapsed before being replaced?  If I'm not mistaken, the USD replaced the GBP as the dominant world reserve currency somewhere in the 20th century and the GBP is still very much around without having to deal with hyperinflation in the meantime. What do you think will happen with our society should the dollar (our current world currency) or the euro collapse?  At least give me the reasons why you simply dismiss my post, being condescendant will not change my mind or make me think you are right.
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stevie
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Re: Gold and silver (physical or not)
« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2020, 05:01:40 AM »
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IMHO this is one of the great investing fallacies and the whole "buy gold/silver to protect yourself from a dollar/euro/whatever currency crash" is inherently incorrect.

If the dollar should crash (or the euro or whatever), the entire world economy will be in shambles.  Banks will collapse, economies will collapse, governments will collapse and countries will go bankrupt...with it, the food supply and distribution systems.  I fail to see what you'll do with your gold/silver bars or gold ETF's in that case.  They will be worthless too.  You won't be able to trade them for seeds, food or weapons.

Wow. Just wow in almost every single line of this post. I was thinking to start replying to this but it might not be worth the time investment. I will give you one hint though: How many different currencies have been world reserves and how many times has the world reserve currency been changed?

Start there and you might change your mind a little bit. My two respectful cents.

Tell me, how many times in modern history has the world currency changed and how many times has the previous world currency collapsed before being replaced?  If I'm not mistaken, the USD replaced the GBP as the dominant world reserve currency somewhere in the 20th century and the GBP is still very much around without having to deal with hyperinflation in the meantime. What do you think will happen with our society should the dollar (our current world currency) or the euro collapse?  At least give me the reasons why you simply dismiss my post, being condescendant will not change my mind or make me think you are right.

I guess the previous post did look condescending that was not my intention though. Basically what it meant was our economic perspectives are so much different that it would be a big effort to try and convince one another.
My perspective: Things are indeed in shambles when A LOT of money is printed like there is no choice and given away to people with the purpose of not working and liking the politicians. This is not how the economy works. This is not currency and somehow there will be counteraction according to the economic theory. These FED balance sheets will be balanced and when they are you need a good position however that translates to you, for me it's not tesla or bonds or nasdaq. The theories and the books win when it's economics historically EVERYTIME.

Will it be bad in everyday life then? Will it look like people dying in the streets? I'm too small to tell you that what i can tell you is usd replaced gbp mainly because it had the gold standard which gbp left in 1931.

You either trust the system will find a solution for the little guy/gal or you don't. Well i bought bitcoin in 2014 and gold/silver 2 years ago. Now i can watch the world burn as it does sometimes.



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Alfa1234
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Re: Gold and silver (physical or not)
« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2020, 10:16:16 AM »
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Printing a lot of money is no issue at all for an economy as long as inflation is kept under control.  The only way a currency could collapse is by hyperinflation and thus a huge devaluation of that currency compared to other currencies and standards.  It's true there are record amounts of money being printer/created right now but as long as that does not induce a huge increase in inflation, that is not an issue at all.  The FED and ECB can easily still controll inflation by increasing the interest rate, which has also been near 0 for a very long time (higher interest reduces demand and thus decreases prices - this is obviously not the best method right now in a recession, but the option is there).

On top of that, I still believe my first post is valid.  If the dollar or euro should collapse, almost all euro countries as well as the US would be bankrupt, with them the rest of the world.  Public services would collapse, hyperinflation would be everywhere, in turn, trade would come to a halt, supply chains and transport would be disrupted with shortages everywhere and a complete collapse of sociëty soon to follow.  I still do not think holding gold would help in that case or protect your assets.
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stevie
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Re: Gold and silver (physical or not)
« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2020, 12:13:04 PM »
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Let's just agree to disagree as the point you make about interest rates looks irrelevant if one has watched Jerome Powell's laugh in his last press conference when asked when interests will be risen while you are contradicting yourself somewhat when you say change of reserve currency=no big deal for gbp and if dollar collapses=change of reserve currency=millions die.

But lets try and put that aside and let me state my thesis: China can and has constructed a plan to assert dominance. They are executing it these years and there is no serious response in fact the US was saying all these years no matter what happens we got the guns but you see them withdrawing from parts of the world as the internal economic mess is big. I also firmly believe that China's era is already here and entities like Russia and the EU are trying to look cute for number 2.

Will the US go without a fight? Well they have happily passed all production to China and they are heavily in debt to China. In my humble opinion they don't look good at all. China is very active in several parts of the world without people knowing much about it, in Africa they are doing profit monstrosities right (for the rare earths and metals) now but well who hasn't? Nobody really cares.

The end game is China dominating in this century their vehicle and world currency will be the RMB and gold and their big power their hungry for everything lower middle and upper classes that move in uniformity as the 200 strong Chinese families command.

Of course i am not saying i am with big % allocation in gold/silver but you surely won't see me investing on the s&p, the nasdaq, the bonds and uber.
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Alfa1234
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Re: Gold and silver (physical or not)
« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2020, 12:23:07 PM »
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Let's just agree to disagree as the point you make about interest rates looks irrelevant if one has watched Jerome Powell's laugh in his last press conference when asked when interests will be risen while you are contradicting yourself somewhat when you say change of reserve currency=no big deal for gbp and if dollar collapses=change of reserve currency=millions die.

But lets try and put that aside and let me state my thesis: China can and has constructed a plan to assert dominance. They are executing it these years and there is no serious response in fact the US was saying all these years no matter what happens we got the guns but you see them withdrawing from parts of the world as the internal economic mess is big. I also firmly believe that China's era is already here and entities like Russia and the EU are trying to look cute for number 2.

Will the US go without a fight? Well they have happily passed all production to China and they are heavily in debt to China. In my humble opinion they don't look good at all. China is very active in several parts of the world without people knowing much about it, in Africa they are doing profit monstrosities right (for the rare earths and metals) now but well who hasn't? Nobody really cares.

The end game is China dominating in this century their vehicle and world currency will be the RMB and gold and their big power their hungry for everything lower middle and upper classes that move in uniformity as the 200 strong Chinese families command.

Of course i am not saying i am with big % allocation in gold/silver but you surely won't see me investing on the s&p, the nasdaq, the bonds and uber.

First part re contradicting myself:  I haven't.  There is a difference between a change of the reserve currency and a collapse of one.  The GBP did not collapse, it was merely replaced by the USD as the dominant currency.  Huge difference.  If the GBP had collapsed at the time before being replaced as the dominant world currency before being replaced by the USD, a huge worldwide economic depression and economic collaspe would have followed.  This didn't happen because it was replaced by the USD as the dominant currency in a gradual way, it didn't happen overnight.

2nd part: China dominance does not matter either.  They have a strong interest in keeping the USD afloat and avoid worldwide economic turmoil.  You mentioned this in your own post.  China holds a huge amount of USD debt...by allowing the dollar to collapse they would not be paid back, hence they have a strong interest in not allowing that to happen. 

Your initial point was gold/silver would protect you in case the dollar would collapse.  I'm saying it won't protect you because of the reasons I gave above.  You have not really replied to me why gold/silver would protect your assets should the dollar ever fail.
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stevie
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Re: Gold and silver (physical or not)
« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2020, 03:47:29 PM »
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I say your arguments are weak (basically seeing the tree and not the forest) you say the same for mine. History tends to repeat itself. You think China cares for their debt and i agree but not in the sense that they want this debt paid, it just won't be. They use it as leverage. China cares for domination and they will make the dollar collapse (slowly or not).
Let's put some money where the keyboarding goes, I say by the end of 2021:
fed interests won't rise, stimulus will continue harder (i can suggest numbers), gold will be over all time usd high by at least 15%, gold/silver ratio under 65, dollar index weaker than today you can also choose other indicators that can be formed into a bet (even inflation) and we find a middle man and move this on.
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Alfa1234
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Re: Gold and silver (physical or not)
« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2020, 04:57:38 PM »
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I fail to see how you have now explained how your gold will protect you in case the dollar collapses.  That was your whole point in the opening post.  I'm not even going to argue with the points you just made as I agree with some of them.  You went from "my gold will protect my assets when the dollar collapses" to wanting to make a bet about the fed interest remaining at 0.25% or lower...off course there will be more stimuli and interest rates will remain low in the short term.  The economy has been hit hard and we are likely going into a strong recession, maybe even a depression.  That also means gold will likely climb higher.  That still doesn't mean it'll hold it's value should the dollar collapse though.  ;D
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stevie
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Re: Gold and silver (physical or not)
« Reply #12 on: July 26, 2020, 05:21:13 AM »
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I fail to see how you have now explained how your gold will protect you in case the dollar collapses.  That was your whole point in the opening post.  I'm not even going to argue with the points you just made as I agree with some of them.  You went from "my gold will protect my assets when the dollar collapses" to wanting to make a bet about the fed interest remaining at 0.25% or lower...off course there will be more stimuli and interest rates will remain low in the short term.  The economy has been hit hard and we are likely going into a strong recession, maybe even a depression.  That also means gold will likely climb higher.  That still doesn't mean it'll hold it's value should the dollar collapse though.  ;D

As stated before if you don't understand the different nature and protection of precious metals vs other investments what is there to explain.
I clearly stated to you that we are far very far in our perspectives in fact i believe you need to do some research into gold and silver. If you don't want that and think that when the gold/usd price increases then its not a weak dollar sign then when can i do other than rest my case?

I am supposing you invest your wealth to protect and increase it and you should have wealth arbing etc. all these years. I don't know one arber of the old days that are not investing their wealth somehow, care to explain your way? Unless its tesla and what buffett suggests then i'd rather listen to some pop music  ;D

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Alfa1234
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Re: Gold and silver (physical or not)
« Reply #13 on: July 26, 2020, 11:02:24 AM »
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I don't think you 've even read what I typed above to be honest.  Plz read it again, I just said I agree that gold (and other precious metals) will go up.  I disagree that it will protect your assets should the dollar collapse.  A collapse means a collapse, that doesn't mean it gets weak, it means it crashes.  It hyperinflates.  It devalues.  It becomes almost worthless.  I believe a collapse of the dollar will mean a collapse of our economic system and I think the price of gold and precious metals will also collapse in that case.  You believe it won't and still have not been able to explain to me why you think that.  I am willing to listen to an argument but you keep beating around the bush and don't seem to want to answer that question so let me ask you this:

In case the dollar collapses, so in case the dollar hyperinflates and becomes almost worthless, why do you think our economy and society will not crash with it and why do you think gold will hold value or climb in that case?

Re my personal investments, that's none of your business but suffice to say they are diversified and, in my opinion, positioned for long term growth.
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stevie
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Re: Gold and silver (physical or not)
« Reply #14 on: July 26, 2020, 01:20:05 PM »
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I don't think you 've even read what I typed above to be honest.  Plz read it again, I just said I agree that gold (and other precious metals) will go up.  I disagree that it will protect your assets should the dollar collapse.  A collapse means a collapse, that doesn't mean it gets weak, it means it crashes.  It hyperinflates.  It devalues.  It becomes almost worthless.  I believe a collapse of the dollar will mean a collapse of our economic system and I think the price of gold and precious metals will also collapse in that case.  You believe it won't and still have not been able to explain to me why you think that.  I am willing to listen to an argument but you keep beating around the bush and don't seem to want to answer that question so let me ask you this:

In case the dollar collapses, so in case the dollar hyperinflates and becomes almost worthless, why do you think our economy and society will not crash with it and why do you think gold will hold value or climb in that case?

Re my personal investments, that's none of your business but suffice to say they are diversified and, in my opinion, positioned for long term growth.

Let's just just conclude this by you are right and i am wrong. Eveybody knows their own wallet and the selections that led to them having that wallet. You are alpha and i am beta.

Time is the only real currency and mine for replying to where you want to focus is over.

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