Pinn special bet line movements in esports

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VidaBlue
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VidaBlue

Pinn special bet line movements in esports
« on: July 26, 2020, 10:22:29 AM »

Hello everyone. Hope you've had a nice summer.

I am hoping that someone can help explaining this line behaviour at pinnacle:

I identify two bets on a DOTA match that I think have value:
map1 first to 10 kills @ 1.75
map2 first to 10 kills @ 1.80

I decide to bet on "map2 first to 10 kills" first, since the odds here are higher. The odds on map2 then adjusts from 1.80 to 1.75 as expected. Upon this event, the other line "map1 first to 10 kills" then does an adjustment as well, from 1.75 to 1.80, so an UP adjustment? I've seen in numerous cases that the odds on other maps decrease preventing the player from taking value on all maps, which makes sense, but never UP.

Can anyone suggest why the pinn algoritm does this?
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turbobets
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turbobets

Re: Pinn special bet line movements in esports
« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2020, 05:15:35 AM »

Maybe someone was betting the other side on map 1 at the same time you were betting their opponent on map 2.
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VidaBlue
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VidaBlue

Re: Pinn special bet line movements in esports
« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2020, 12:19:20 PM »

Maybe someone was betting the other side on map 1 at the same time you were betting their opponent on map 2.
I've seen it multiple times now and it happens instantly (the usual 3-5 seconds) on otherwise inactive lines long before game start, so it seems like it is my action which is causing it.

I think it is much more plausible that it is pinn internal systems. Here's one theory: Maybe their algoritm has flagged me for this particular market as a very losing customer beyond their own juice which then causes the algoritm to INCREASE odds on similar markets upon my betting action, instead of decreasing them - so if anyone is "talented" enough to consistently choose the losing side it would act this way. However, I do not think that I have made many of these bets for an algoritm to reach such conclusion, but maybe I should start looking closer into this from that perspective.

I believe that a better understanding of the details on how these asian lines operate can lead to better indication of where the smart money go just by monitoring the line movements. This is the deeper purpose behind this topic.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2020, 12:23:34 PM by VidaBlue » Logged
macola
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macola

Re: Pinn special bet line movements in esports
« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2020, 03:30:25 PM »

Imo too much juice on pinny side to do conclusions on asian lines on esports atm
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X_Gambler
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X_Gambler

Re: Pinn special bet line movements in esports
« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2020, 08:41:50 PM »

When is this happening? The odds between the different maps are connected via both teams banning certain maps to be played.. and I wonder how much in advance your action takes place.
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VidaBlue
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VidaBlue

Re: Pinn special bet line movements in esports
« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2020, 10:23:14 PM »

When is this happening? The odds between the different maps are connected via both teams banning certain maps to be played.. and I wonder how much in advance your action takes place.
They take place more than 4 hours before game start.
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