Arbusers

Yngwie/Sawyer wrote: However, you reduce the overall profit little bit..but you keep your chance to hit the jackpot.

Yngwie/Sawyer wrote:

Of course I would like you to give an example from parley bets at the same time.

When you parlay two events scheduled at same or similiar time. You have chance to get x25 of your arb profit. Yes, x25!

However, you reduce the overall profit little bit..but you keep your chance to hit the jackpot.

Allright, here's the parlay:

Man City 1,35    Saturday 17:00 (Lay is 1,25)
Liverpool 1,35    Saturday 17:15 (Lay is 1,25)

Stake: 3000€

The key is..We lay each bet seperate.

Risk for City is 1120,39€ Lay stake is 4481,56€.
Risk for Liverpool is 1120,39€. Lay stake is 4481,56€.

Let's have a look at scenarios now..

Both City and Liverpool win +226€ Profit
City wins, Lİverpool not winner  +226€ Profit
Liverpool wins, City not winner +226€ Profit

What if both Liverpool and City does not win?

Well, you HIT THE JACKPOT in that case!

+5739€ profit if both Liverpool and City fail to win.

Parlay bet lost -3000€
City lay win +4481,56€ (+4369,52€ Net)
Liverpool lay win +4481,56€ (+4369,52€ Net)

Net Profit: +5739€

PS: Betfair comission is %2.5

PS2: This strategy works best with short odds. Doesn't work very well on bigger odds.

PS3: If you think winning 2 lay bets is very unlikely, Well, think again! It just happened this weekend! Liverpool lost 7-2 while Leeds-Man City match ended 1-1.

PS4: If two events were scheduled at different times, and you were arbing classic way. You would make +223€ profit if first leg lost and +524€ profit if first leg was winner.

PS5: In stores 12 November.

justanarber wrote:

Yngwie/Sawyer wrote:

Of course I would like you to give an example from parley bets at the same time.

When you parlay two events scheduled at same or similiar time. You have chance to get x25 of your arb profit. Yes, x25!

However, you reduce the overall profit little bit..but you keep your chance to hit the jackpot.

Allright, here's the parlay:

Man City 1,35    Saturday 17:00 (Lay is 1,25)
Liverpool 1,35    Saturday 17:15 (Lay is 1,25)

Stake: 3000€

The key is..We lay each bet seperate.

Risk for City is 1120,39€ Lay stake is 4481,56€.
Risk for Liverpool is 1120,39€. Lay stake is 4481,56€.

Let's have a look at scenarios now..

Both City and Liverpool win +226€ Profit
City wins, Lİverpool not winner  +226€ Profit
Liverpool wins, City not winner +226€ Profit

What if both Liverpool and City does not win?

Well, you HIT THE JACKPOT in that case!

+5739€ profit if both Liverpool and City fail to win.

Parlay bet lost -3000€
City lay win +4481,56€ (+4369,52€ Net)
Liverpool lay win +4481,56€ (+4369,52€ Net)

Net Profit: +5739€

PS: Betfair comission is %2.5

PS2: This strategy works best with short odds. Doesn't work very well on bigger odds.

PS3: If you think winning 2 lay bets is very unlikely, Well, think again! It just happened this weekend! Liverpool lost 7-2 while Leeds-Man City match ended 1-1.

PS4: If two events were scheduled at different times, and you were arbing classic way. You would make +223€ profit if first leg lost and +524€ profit if first leg was winner.

PS5: In stores 12 November.

yngwie/sawyer, you've been the best contributor on here for years (in my opinion) and yes you're a very smart guy but i take issue with this, man city, liverpool, 1.35 to bet and 1.25 to lay, where on earth can you get pre-match odds like that? surely that is extremely uncommon, in the UK you can't get this on football, pre-match is dead now.

your example is fantasy, maybe in the past with your Turkish bookmakers you were getting such massive pre-march arbs but this example you show now could only be on a small event from a small bookmaker with small bet amounts.

sorry but when I read this i think your example is unreallistic, to illustrate an example of massive pre-match arbs like this to do a parlay on the likes of Man city and liverpool is not impressive and would have liked to have seen a more reallistic example, where of course your profit would have been much smaller or negative.

in your example, if you were to simply put 3000 on both of them and arbed you'd make  223 x 2 , 446 profit as opposed to your 226 profit example and your roughly 6% chance of hitting the jackpot but 1.35 to bet and 1.25 to lay, this is old school.

of course you are one of the top earners on here, i don't criticise, but think you are talking of the past and not conditions nowadays?

Wolfie wrote:

justanarber wrote:

Yngwie/Sawyer wrote: When you parlay two events scheduled at same or similiar time. You have chance to get x25 of your arb profit. Yes, x25!

However, you reduce the overall profit little bit..but you keep your chance to hit the jackpot.

Allright, here's the parlay:

Man City 1,35    Saturday 17:00 (Lay is 1,25)
Liverpool 1,35    Saturday 17:15 (Lay is 1,25)

Stake: 3000€

The key is..We lay each bet seperate.

Risk for City is 1120,39€ Lay stake is 4481,56€.
Risk for Liverpool is 1120,39€. Lay stake is 4481,56€.

Let's have a look at scenarios now..

Both City and Liverpool win +226€ Profit
City wins, Lİverpool not winner  +226€ Profit
Liverpool wins, City not winner +226€ Profit

What if both Liverpool and City does not win?

Well, you HIT THE JACKPOT in that case!

+5739€ profit if both Liverpool and City fail to win.

Parlay bet lost -3000€
City lay win +4481,56€ (+4369,52€ Net)
Liverpool lay win +4481,56€ (+4369,52€ Net)

Net Profit: +5739€

PS: Betfair comission is %2.5

PS2: This strategy works best with short odds. Doesn't work very well on bigger odds.

PS3: If you think winning 2 lay bets is very unlikely, Well, think again! It just happened this weekend! Liverpool lost 7-2 while Leeds-Man City match ended 1-1.

PS4: If two events were scheduled at different times, and you were arbing classic way. You would make +223€ profit if first leg lost and +524€ profit if first leg was winner.

PS5: In stores 12 November.

yngwie/sawyer, you've been the best contributor on here for years (in my opinion) and yes you're a very smart guy but i take issue with this, man city, liverpool, 1.35 to bet and 1.25 to lay, where on earth can you get pre-match odds like that? surely that is extremely uncommon, in the UK you can't get this on football, pre-match is dead now.

your example is fantasy, maybe in the past with your Turkish bookmakers you were getting such massive pre-march arbs but this example you show now could only be on a small event from a small bookmaker with small bet amounts.

sorry but when I read this i think your example is unreallistic, to illustrate an example of massive pre-match arbs like this to do a parlay on the likes of Man city and liverpool is not impressive and would have liked to have seen a more reallistic example, where of course your profit would have been much smaller or negative.

in your example, if you were to simply put 3000 on both of them and arbed you'd make  223 x 2 , 446 profit as opposed to your 226 profit example and your roughly 6% chance of hitting the jackpot but 1.35 to bet and 1.25 to lay, this is old school.

of course you are one of the top earners on here, i don't criticise, but think you are talking of the past and not conditions nowadays?

0.0625 X 5739 = 358.7  winnings for each bet in long run from jackpot
358 + 226 = 584
So with this strategy you win 584 for each bet in log run which is still more than 446 for each bet

Alfa1234 wrote: Guys, it's the math.  He just gave the perfect example.  The first 2 bets don't even have to be a positive arb as long as the third is a big arb to make this work.  You can "adjust" the first 2 odds to create a bigger arb by reducing the 3rd match to barely break even as well!  It's gold!

Wolfie wrote: 0.0625 X 5739 = 358.7  winnings for each bet in long run from jackpot
358 + 226 = 584
So with this strategy you win 584 for each bet in log run which is still more than 446 for each bet

VidaBlue wrote:

Wolfie wrote: 0.0625 X 5739 = 358.7  winnings for each bet in long run from jackpot
358 + 226 = 584
So with this strategy you win 584 for each bet in log run which is still more than 446 for each bet

True. Putting 3000 on a parlay would on average give you more (584) than 3000 on each bet separately (446), because positive value is accumulated. From a perspective where bankroll is the bottleneck that is the best thing to do.

From a bookmaker limit perspective, it may be different. In case the limits of the bet is proportional to potential winnings, which is the case with some books (bet365 and kambi for instance), the other option, 2 separate bets may be more lucrative because you're allowed to stake more.

That being said, parlay bets probably draw less attention than single bets.

justanarber wrote:

Alfa1234 wrote: Guys, it's the math.  He just gave the perfect example.  The first 2 bets don't even have to be a positive arb as long as the third is a big arb to make this work.  You can "adjust" the first 2 odds to create a bigger arb by reducing the 3rd match to barely break even as well!  It's gold!

sorry it's  not a good example at all, check the math Alfa123 and I am talking about betting 1.35 and laying 1.25, 2 teams as a double.

he is staking 4481.56 each on 2 events, to simply arb these would give 333.83 x2 profit which is 667.66, far better than the 223 he gets from his parlay,

in my calculations he makes 226 if both win and 249 if one wins and 5739 when both lose 6% of the time, so in this example the "math" actually says the better profit is to bet and lay both teams as a single and make 667.66 each time.

I hope you can elaborate yngwie/sawyer? you are way smarter than me for sure but this time you have me scratching my head 

Alfa1234 wrote:

justanarber wrote:

Alfa1234 wrote: Guys, it's the math.  He just gave the perfect example.  The first 2 bets don't even have to be a positive arb as long as the third is a big arb to make this work.  You can "adjust" the first 2 odds to create a bigger arb by reducing the 3rd match to barely break even as well!  It's gold!

sorry it's  not a good example at all, check the math Alfa123 and I am talking about betting 1.35 and laying 1.25, 2 teams as a double.

he is staking 4481.56 each on 2 events, to simply arb these would give 333.83 x2 profit which is 667.66, far better than the 223 he gets from his parlay,

in my calculations he makes 226 if both win and 249 if one wins and 5739 when both lose 6% of the time, so in this example the "math" actually says the better profit is to bet and lay both teams as a single and make 667.66 each time.

I hope you can elaborate yngwie/sawyer? you are way smarter than me for sure but this time you have me scratching my head 

And how long do you think your account will last if you bet them as singles...and how long as as triple parlay? 

Alfa1234 wrote: It was an example how to bet a parlay while the games are being played simultaneously.  I don't understand why you guys are getting so worked up about the size of the arb in the example.  That's all it was, an example how to do it...if also works if the arbs were 1.28 to lay 1.25.

justanarber wrote:

Alfa1234 wrote: It was an example how to bet a parlay while the games are being played simultaneously.  I don't understand why you guys are getting so worked up about the size of the arb in the example.  That's all it was, an example how to do it...if also works if the arbs were 1.28 to lay 1.25.

if the guys on here need an example of how to parlay and still make a profit when the lay odds are 1.25 and the bet odds are 1.35 then they are in the wrong job, numbers and how they work has to be a prerequisite of this job. The example of the parlay was of 2 arbs more than 20% but you don't think the size of the arb is important in the example Alfa1234, we can agreee to disagree on that, to me it's very important.

you say alfa1234 "it's all in the math" but these examples are about account longevity not "math", the "math" favours single bets.