Isn't the arb game dead? (page 8)

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Alfa1234
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?
« Reply #105 on: January 01, 2021, 10:48:28 AM »
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Another thing I figured out using Sawyers multiple system is, it's a great idea to add many "draw no bets" to the parlay.

That way, if you take profit in a leg with a draw no bet in it on your ticket (by betting the draw anyway) you can take profits again and again on the same ticket in case the match ends in a draw.

Say you have a 3-leg parlay with small value, odds 2-2-2 for a total of 8.0

You bet 100€

You can lay leg 1 on BF at 1.8, leg 2 at 2.0 and leg 3 at 2.0

You "change" the odd for leg 1 in your ticket to 1.8, effectively breaking even (you lay 100€ on BF to risk 80€). If your first leg wins, you can now "change" the 2nd odd in your multiple to 2.22, allowing you to lay 200€ (to risk 200€) on BF for a total profit of 20€ (your 2nd leg was worth 180€ after the first one won).  If that 2nd leg was a draw no bet, you can bet 5-7€ on the draw and take roughly 13€ profit and repeat the process with the third leg again.  Effectively doubling your potential profit for the ticket.
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freaked
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?
« Reply #106 on: March 23, 2021, 09:25:07 AM »
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I am here to debate the advantages the parlay theory has.
Let's take the example already used of 2 selections at 2.05 where real odds are 2.00.

For simplicity, imagine our total bank is 202.5.
Arbing normally, we would guarantee a return of 205 from the first leg 100% of the time (100x2.05, or 102.5*2). We get this return 100% of the time.
We then invest our bigger bank in the next selection.
Arbing normally, we guarantee a return of 207.53 (101.23*2.05, or 103.76*2). So 100% of the time we make a profit of 5.03, or 2.48%.

Now how do we calculate our stakes when using the parlay?
Keep in mind our total bank is 202.5.
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tomtom70
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?
« Reply #107 on: March 26, 2021, 11:44:27 AM »
+1

I am here to debate the advantages the parlay theory has.
Let's take the example already used of 2 selections at 2.05 where real odds are 2.00.

For simplicity, imagine our total bank is 202.5.
Arbing normally, we would guarantee a return of 205 from the first leg 100% of the time (100x2.05, or 102.5*2). We get this return 100% of the time.
We then invest our bigger bank in the next selection.
Arbing normally, we guarantee a return of 207.53 (101.23*2.05, or 103.76*2). So 100% of the time we make a profit of 5.03, or 2.48%.

Now how do we calculate our stakes when using the parlay?
Keep in mind our total bank is 202.5.

In this case, my calculations are as follows: We bet 38.92 at the parlay, lay 81.79 @ 2 in both games. The risk in laying the games is each obviously also 81.79, so totalling 163.58, plus the stake of the parlay gives you exactly 202.5. I assume zero commission here.

As the difference between the true odds and the odds used in the arb is so small we cannot, however, make a profit in all cases. The P&L is -38.92 in all but one case (which is the event that both bets in the parlay are lost and hence the lay bets are won) - in which the profit will be 124.66.

If you calculate the expected value of this strategy, it is, however, positive (-38.92 * 0.75 + 124.66 * 0.25 = 1.97). But there is a huge standard deviation (= risk) associated with it. You are effectively punting on the only outcome with a positive P&L. This gets very clear if you think about what you are actually doing if you lay both events (call them A and B): through the parlay, you have a position in "A and B". The opposite event is not some combination of "not A" and "not B" alone. In order to hedge it correctly you would have two possibilites: First, you could bet on "not A" and on "A and not B" or secondly, you could bet on "not B" and on "B and not A". In any case, the payout has to be same as that of the parlay.

I calculated the correct hedge to be as follows: bet 48.77 on the parlay (odds 4.2025 for "A and B"), 102.48 on the event "not A" (odds 2.00) and 51.24 on the event "A and not B" (odds 4.00), totalling exactly 202.50, with a payout of 204.97 in any possible outcome, i.e. securing a profit of 2.47.

My experience with these kind of things is, however, that in practice, it is not easy if not impossible to find the hedge with the theoretical odds. Even if you use e.g. pinnacle there is only a small chance that they offer the best price simultaneously in both "A" and "not B", therefore probably destroying the arb completely because you don't get the theoretical price for the event "A and not B".

I have even tried this for 3 simultaneous events - it gets more and more tricky and although it works in theory very well you will end up losing because of pinnacles margins and/or commissions on the exchange. Only in very rare circumstances this can make sense, e.g. if you get a bonus for placing parlays or additional payout (multi bonus of e.g. 5 % of the winnings). Most of the time, the theoretical P&L is eaten away during the process of hedging the parlay.

I personally therefore prefer parlays of consecutive (non-overlapping) events. If the odds are sufficiently "wrong" you have a chance of locking in a profit even if the odds move a bit. If they, however move by much, you still could end up with a (considerable) loss. As the expected value of the strategy is positive at inception, this should still be profitable in the long run. And as far as I can say, it is  ;)

If anybody knows the concept of delta hedging options, I could also elaborate about this a bit. The concept can be applied in this context in order to reduce the risks of odds changes for the later legs of the parlay. I have done this in the past occasionally.

 
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Cozetti
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?
« Reply #108 on: March 26, 2021, 04:16:28 PM »
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There are rare bookies in some low rate countries where pre-game is still strong.

what do you mean by still strong? Now, there are plenty of websites that use famous bookies where even with 0.85% arbs you can make some money.
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Cozetti
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?
« Reply #109 on: March 26, 2021, 05:13:45 PM »
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Quote
I have 16 single bets of 2.04 where the probability of winning is 50%  This gives 2% value.

I place 16 singles of 100€ x2.04, so I expect to win 32€ (I lose 8 and I win 8 bets giving me a profit of 32€ total).

I place 16 four-folds of 100€ of those bets (off course this is long term assuming you have a bunch of 2% value bets).  The odd is now 17.32 for each bet (2.04x2.04x2.04x2.04). You are expected to win 1 of those and lose the other 15.  You win 100x2.04x2.04x2.04x2.04  = 1732 and lose the other 1500.  Your stake was 1600. Your profit is 132€.


Hi, dont you think having 16 bets of 2.04 is kinda unrealistic?, they may exist, but bookies change odds often. It seems unrealistic to me to have such 16 bets at the same time.

Besides that, I agree with your calculation.
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Alfa1234
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?
« Reply #110 on: March 26, 2021, 07:13:56 PM »
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Quote
I have 16 single bets of 2.04 where the probability of winning is 50%  This gives 2% value.

I place 16 singles of 100€ x2.04, so I expect to win 32€ (I lose 8 and I win 8 bets giving me a profit of 32€ total).

I place 16 four-folds of 100€ of those bets (off course this is long term assuming you have a bunch of 2% value bets).  The odd is now 17.32 for each bet (2.04x2.04x2.04x2.04). You are expected to win 1 of those and lose the other 15.  You win 100x2.04x2.04x2.04x2.04  = 1732 and lose the other 1500.  Your stake was 1600. Your profit is 132€.


Hi, dont you think having 16 bets of 2.04 is kinda unrealistic?, they may exist, but bookies change odds often. It seems unrealistic to me to have such 16 bets at the same time.

Besides that, I agree with your calculation.

It was merely an example to demonstrate the profit increases with multiples.  16 is fairly unrealistic, but 3 or 4 at the same time is possible.
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freaked
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?
« Reply #111 on: March 30, 2021, 10:31:08 AM »
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So you never have an expected profit of greater than 5.03 - this is the guaranteed profit 100% of the time arbing normally.

Can anybody provide an example where the expected profit will be greater than 5.03, remembering we are constrained to a total bank of 202.5?

I am here to debate the advantages the parlay theory has.
Let's take the example already used of 2 selections at 2.05 where real odds are 2.00.

For simplicity, imagine our total bank is 202.5.
Arbing normally, we would guarantee a return of 205 from the first leg 100% of the time (100x2.05, or 102.5*2). We get this return 100% of the time.
We then invest our bigger bank in the next selection.
Arbing normally, we guarantee a return of 207.53 (101.23*2.05, or 103.76*2). So 100% of the time we make a profit of 5.03, or 2.48%.

Now how do we calculate our stakes when using the parlay?
Keep in mind our total bank is 202.5.

In this case, my calculations are as follows: We bet 38.92 at the parlay, lay 81.79 @ 2 in both games. The risk in laying the games is each obviously also 81.79, so totalling 163.58, plus the stake of the parlay gives you exactly 202.5. I assume zero commission here.

As the difference between the true odds and the odds used in the arb is so small we cannot, however, make a profit in all cases. The P&L is -38.92 in all but one case (which is the event that both bets in the parlay are lost and hence the lay bets are won) - in which the profit will be 124.66.

If you calculate the expected value of this strategy, it is, however, positive (-38.92 * 0.75 + 124.66 * 0.25 = 1.97). But there is a huge standard deviation (= risk) associated with it. You are effectively punting on the only outcome with a positive P&L. This gets very clear if you think about what you are actually doing if you lay both events (call them A and B): through the parlay, you have a position in "A and B". The opposite event is not some combination of "not A" and "not B" alone. In order to hedge it correctly you would have two possibilites: First, you could bet on "not A" and on "A and not B" or secondly, you could bet on "not B" and on "B and not A". In any case, the payout has to be same as that of the parlay.

I calculated the correct hedge to be as follows: bet 48.77 on the parlay (odds 4.2025 for "A and B"), 102.48 on the event "not A" (odds 2.00) and 51.24 on the event "A and not B" (odds 4.00), totalling exactly 202.50, with a payout of 204.97 in any possible outcome, i.e. securing a profit of 2.47.

My experience with these kind of things is, however, that in practice, it is not easy if not impossible to find the hedge with the theoretical odds. Even if you use e.g. pinnacle there is only a small chance that they offer the best price simultaneously in both "A" and "not B", therefore probably destroying the arb completely because you don't get the theoretical price for the event "A and not B".

I have even tried this for 3 simultaneous events - it gets more and more tricky and although it works in theory very well you will end up losing because of pinnacles margins and/or commissions on the exchange. Only in very rare circumstances this can make sense, e.g. if you get a bonus for placing parlays or additional payout (multi bonus of e.g. 5 % of the winnings). Most of the time, the theoretical P&L is eaten away during the process of hedging the parlay.

I personally therefore prefer parlays of consecutive (non-overlapping) events. If the odds are sufficiently "wrong" you have a chance of locking in a profit even if the odds move a bit. If they, however move by much, you still could end up with a (considerable) loss. As the expected value of the strategy is positive at inception, this should still be profitable in the long run. And as far as I can say, it is  ;)

If anybody knows the concept of delta hedging options, I could also elaborate about this a bit. The concept can be applied in this context in order to reduce the risks of odds changes for the later legs of the parlay. I have done this in the past occasionally.
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cem
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?
« Reply #112 on: April 01, 2021, 11:15:33 PM »
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Let's assume that you had an Orbitx account with 0% commission on major European leagues.

How you would take advantage of that ? Thank you for your ideas.
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cem
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?
« Reply #113 on: April 05, 2021, 09:52:21 PM »
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Guys, it's the math.. The first 2 bets don't even have to be a positive arb as long as the third is a big arb to make this work.  You can "adjust" the first 2 odds to create a bigger arb by reducing the 3rd match to barely break even as well!  It's gold!


Lets suppose we have 2 games. Both have back / lay odds 2.00 / 2.00.- Capital = 100 euros.

Kindly "adjust" the odds , and show us how the job could be done to have a profit, no matter what.. - Thank you.
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Alfa1234
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?
« Reply #114 on: April 06, 2021, 08:20:09 AM »
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Guys, it's the math.. The first 2 bets don't even have to be a positive arb as long as the third is a big arb to make this work.  You can "adjust" the first 2 odds to create a bigger arb by reducing the 3rd match to barely break even as well!  It's gold!


Lets suppose we have 2 games. Both have back / lay odds 2.00 / 2.00.- Capital = 100 euros.

Kindly "adjust" the odds , and show us how the job could be done to have a profit, no matter what.. - Thank you.

You conveniently left out this part: "as long as the third is a big arb".
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cem
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?
« Reply #115 on: April 06, 2021, 11:32:56 AM »
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quote

You conveniently left out this part: "as long as the third is a big arb".

[/quote]


And you conveniently left out the option to lose the first leg of the parlay, which is underlaid.

So, where is the gold ?
« Last Edit: April 06, 2021, 11:34:34 AM by cem » Logged
Alfa1234
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?
« Reply #116 on: April 06, 2021, 02:41:43 PM »
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Parlay:

Odds 2 x 2 x 3 = 12.0

To lay on BF at 2.0, 2.0 and 2.5

Only third leg is an arb.  You make no money from leg 1 or 2.

You can adjust this whichever way you want, e.g. by making the legs 2.1 x 2.2 x 2.6 = 12.0 on your ticket.

You now make money by laying the first leg, the 2nd leg and the third leg in case it wins on BF...or you can make it 2.4x2x2.5 and hope your first leg loses in your parlay...or whatever way you want to adjust it.

The total value remains the same, but if you can't see the possibilities by being able to turn every arb you have into a parlay, you should get a bigger imagination.
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cem
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?
« Reply #117 on: April 06, 2021, 04:03:54 PM »
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Parlay:

Odds 2 x 2 x 3 = 12.0

To lay on BF at 2.0, 2.0 and 2.5


This is not gold.. This is camouflaged arbitrage, trying to remain undetected from bookies machines.

Pointless to mention, that i highly appreciate your reply, for which i thank you very much.
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Samub
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Re: Isn't the arb game dead?
« Reply #118 on: April 08, 2021, 06:25:33 PM »
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This is not gold.. This is camouflaged arbitrage, trying to remain undetected from bookies machines.

Pointless to mention, that i highly appreciate your reply, for which i thank you very much.

Couldn't agree more. Doing accumulators with arbs will probably increase lifetime of the account, but no point underlaying first legs to hit the "gold".

As a example 3-fold 2.2/2.2/2.2 with exchange odds 2.2/2.2/2.1 with stake £250 has got expected value £11.9.

you can underlay all 3 legs and hit "gold" £121 if all win (0 if any leg will lose) but hitting 3 winners will happen only 9.84% of time. So expected value remains the same

Not to mention odds can drift between matches.

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