Discrepancy in Bet 365 odds (am I missing something?)

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nickolas
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nickolas

Discrepancy in Bet 365 odds (am I missing something?)
« on: August 23, 2020, 08:28:23 PM »

I was looking at bet365 odds and something does not add up I think...

Say odds for no goal is 8.50 but clean sheet for one team is 3.25 and for the other 3.00 (so implied no goal odd is 9,75 right?)
Odds for both teams to score 1st half - 2nd half "No/No" is 1.50 but odds for "no" in the first half is 1.14 and "no" for the second half is 1.25 (so implied odd is 1,425 right?)

First 10minute over 0.5 goals is 5.00 but 1-10min time of first goal bracket is 4.75

Draw not bet is 2.00 for home and 1.72 for away but asian handicap 0.0 is 2.08 for home and 1.82 for away.

What is going on??
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GreenScalper
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GreenScalper

Re: Discrepancy in Bet 365 odds (am I missing something?)
« Reply #1 on: August 23, 2020, 09:01:03 PM »

They just have different margins on the different markets, simple as that. Asian lines always have smaller margin than Draw No Bet.
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kustef
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kustef

Re: Discrepancy in Bet 365 odds (am I missing something?)
« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2020, 08:04:51 AM »

probably they also can recognize sharp and recreational players by this odds.. sharp players allways take best odds.. recreational dont care just bet..
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VidaBlue
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Re: Discrepancy in Bet 365 odds (am I missing something?)
« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2020, 10:33:18 AM »

Say odds for no goal is 8.50 but clean sheet for one team is 3.25 and for the other 3.00 (so implied no goal odd is 9,75 right?)
Odds for both teams to score 1st half - 2nd half "No/No" is 1.50 but odds for "no" in the first half is 1.14 and "no" for the second half is 1.25 (so implied odd is 1,425 right?)
Here's another one: When doing multipliers the overall odds should ideally be lower than a single bet, given that the profit margin (juice) on each bet is included several times on a multiplier. It has been discussed before, whether bet365 increases the juice for high odds, the so-called "long-shot bias" phenomenon. That could be a reason why the first example has a lower single bet odds and second one hasn't.

The explanation is maybe a sum of several assumptions, including those mentioned above by GreenScalper and nickolas.
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nickolas
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nickolas

Re: Discrepancy in Bet 365 odds (am I missing something?)
« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2020, 12:35:23 PM »

One can also assume that if there is no goal on the first half, there are increased chances that there will be no goal on the second half (because the game is slow, teams are on the defensive etc.)
So they are not exactly independent of each other.
The same goes for scoring on the 1st/2nd half.
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