Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President

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barnstorm
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barnstorm

Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
« on: September 10, 2020, 07:12:43 PM »

You'll have to wait until November 3 or maybe even longer to cash in, but there are some arbitrage opportunities on the U.S. Presidential election that will yield 5-6%.

MyBookie and Fairlay have Biden at -105 (1.95)

PredictIt has Trump at 42 cents which translates to +138 (2.38)
Betfair has Trump at +122 (2.22)
Smarkets has Trump at +132 (2.32)

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justanarber
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justanarber

Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2020, 07:38:31 PM »

You'll have to wait until November 3 or maybe even longer to cash in, but there are some arbitrage opportunities on the U.S. Presidential election that will yield 5-6%.

MyBookie and Fairlay have Biden at -105 (1.95)

PredictIt has Trump at 42 cents which translates to +138 (2.38)
Betfair has Trump at +122 (2.22)
Smarkets has Trump at +132 (2.32)

any what if one of them doesn't make it to November 3?

better to sell your 1.95 on Biden at 1.87 right now
« Last Edit: September 10, 2020, 07:40:29 PM by justanarber » Logged
barret19
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barret19

Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2020, 08:04:35 PM »

I see huge value on Trump odds. He will win again, the people are not so stupid to believe all media trash and all those riots / BLM / Antifa / Extreme left movements will turn against Biden.
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barnstorm
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barnstorm

Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2020, 11:23:09 PM »

Yes, you can bet on Democrat or Republican, or against Trump or against Biden if you are not sure either one will make it to November 3.
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arbusers
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Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2020, 07:18:54 AM »

Mark my words, this year's election will be an anomaly and in the end, a court will decide who the next president is.
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Geronimo
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Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
« Reply #5 on: September 11, 2020, 10:10:31 AM »

Mark my words, this year's election will be an anomaly and in the end, a court will decide who the next president is.

I have the saml thougts. Thats interesting.

Personally: The influence on the stock market would have a bigger impact than any direct election bet I win or lose.
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arbusers
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Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
« Reply #6 on: September 11, 2020, 10:30:11 AM »

Trump is the only president of the USA since the establishment of the office in 1789, that makes a statement or a twit every given day, about the stock market.
This is rediculus in my opinion and it could lead to immense dangers. Already, the fiscal policy of the USA has no difference than the Soviet policies with the immense money printing.
The damage is so big that we should prepare for a different USA and World in the next 5 years no matter who the next president will be.
One last statement, the Government (any Government) represents the biggest danger for your wealth and personal freedoms.
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Wolfie
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Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
« Reply #7 on: September 11, 2020, 10:57:39 AM »

I think who will be the next US president may be historic. Because it will determine how US vs China relation will go on. A powerful country, communism, combined with todays technology may be the most dangerous combination the world has ever seen. The next war is a cyber war, information war, war for the control of the human mindset. US may have done many dirty things as a country. But i would chose them against china for world leader anytime.
In personal finance perspective, try to hold assets and not currency.
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CharlieSheen99
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CharlieSheen99

Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
« Reply #8 on: September 11, 2020, 02:31:36 PM »

Mark my words, this year's election will be an anomaly and in the end, a court will decide who the next president is.

I have the saml thougts. Thats interesting.

Personally: The influence on the stock market would have a bigger impact than any direct election bet I win or lose.

Why do you think so?
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NDR
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Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
« Reply #9 on: September 11, 2020, 05:56:53 PM »

i would vote for trump.

not that he is the right person to lead the usa(world), but i dont want that the world turn even more left-green.

we see in germany what happens, we see it in scandinavia, france etc.

trump means money, progress, economic growth, investing, a good life to life.

biden stands for gender equality, political correctness, climate warming, a bitter way of life (a bit populist expressed)

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pls excuse my bad english
barnstorm
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barnstorm

Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
« Reply #10 on: September 11, 2020, 06:05:47 PM »

Let's keep politics out of this or we will get into a pissing match.

This thread was just about an Arbitrage Opportunity. It could have been a handball match. Politics sometimes gives some good arbs, but you have to wait weeks for the payoff. Maybe best to see if there are still arbs left when it is only a few days out.
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justanarber
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justanarber

Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
« Reply #11 on: September 11, 2020, 07:16:24 PM »

Let's keep politics out of this or we will get into a pissing match.

This thread was just about an Arbitrage Opportunity. It could have been a handball match. Politics sometimes gives some good arbs, but you have to wait weeks for the payoff. Maybe best to see if there are still arbs left when it is only a few days out.

there was amazing arbing opportunities at the last US election and for me all losing bets on Clinton, politics, referendums, elections, Greece,
they've been nice free money to arbers over the years.
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turbobets
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turbobets

Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2020, 03:34:29 AM »

Trump is the only president of the USA since the establishment of the office in 1789, that makes a statement or a twit every given day, about the stock market.
This is rediculus in my opinion and it could lead to immense dangers. Already, the fiscal policy of the USA has no difference than the Soviet policies with the immense money printing.
The damage is so big that we should prepare for a different USA and World in the next 5 years no matter who the next president will be.
One last statement, the Government (any Government) represents the biggest danger for your wealth and personal freedoms.

Neither party over here is fiscally conservative anymore and I have to agree it's very concerning.
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Yngwie/Sawyer

Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2020, 06:48:41 PM »

Trump is a banker.
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barnstorm
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barnstorm

Re: Arbitrage Opportunity for U.S. President
« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2020, 04:43:01 PM »

You'll have to wait until November 3 or maybe even longer to cash in, but there are some arbitrage opportunities on the U.S. Presidential election that will yield 5-6%.

MyBookie and Fairlay have Biden at -105 (1.95)

PredictIt has Trump at 42 cents which translates to +138 (2.38)
Betfair has Trump at +122 (2.22)
Smarkets has Trump at +132 (2.32)

Biden has moved up to -120 (1.83) on MyBookie and a little more at Pinnacle, Betfair and Matchbook. You might find Biden at -115 (1.87) at Fairlay. That's about as low as you can find him any more.

You can get Trump for 44 cents (+127 or 2.27) at PredictIt. Trump is +120 (2.20) at Betfair and Matchbook.

So there's still an arb, but it is only about 2-3% now.

You might find some better arbs in the individual State races of Biden vs. Trump. Will check.
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