Is this an acceptable downswings? I beat 70-80% of pinnacle's CL

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mita8888
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mita8888


I am value betting on dafabet, I beat 70-80% of pinnacles CL on (90% soccer, 5% tennis, 5% basketball) but i am losing about more than -5% ROI this last 4 weeks.

I just finish checking my saturday and sunday's bet (3 oct & 4 Oct 154 sample size @ -7% ROI),
last week I am at -9% ROI (150-200 sample size on saturday and sunday)

I often do manual check every monday morning to compare my bet with pinnacle's CL
When i check oddsportal. most of dafabets line are on the opposite side of pinnacle (Ex: pinnacle offering highest odds on team A, while dafabet is offering highest odds on team B among dozens of bookies) which make me place value bet on dafatbet, until i got a very bad downswings this last 4 weeks.

anybody suffer the same lose with me?
I also read few members suffer lose in this thread
https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=7531.msg79082#new
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barret19
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Re: Is this an acceptable downswings? I beat 70-80% of pinnacle's CL
« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2020, 02:58:31 PM »

Hello mate
I have placed around 2000 bets last month and I beat the pinnacle closing line 80%+ times by a good margin.
However Im also around even/no profit, so I think this covid19 is affeting the markets and pinnacle not 100% efficient.
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mita8888
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mita8888

Re: Is this an acceptable downswings? I beat 70-80% of pinnacle's CL
« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2020, 03:00:25 PM »

are you placing your bet on sharps?
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barret19
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Re: Is this an acceptable downswings? I beat 70-80% of pinnacle's CL
« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2020, 03:07:43 PM »

are you placing your bet on sharps?

Hi, Im just using soft bookmakers and I beat the closing line sometimes by a huge margin (0,20 +) .
In normal conditions I should have doubled my bank last month but I sit on even so for sure something is going on. We need to keep grinding, this for sure is some bad variance and covid19 effect.
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arctrading
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Re: Is this an acceptable downswings? I beat 70-80% of pinnacle's CL
« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2020, 07:49:47 PM »

I am value betting on dafabet, I beat 70-80% of pinnacles CL on (90% soccer, 5% tennis, 5% basketball) but i am losing about more than -5% ROI this last 4 weeks.

I just finish checking my saturday and sunday's bet (3 oct & 4 Oct 154 sample size @ -7% ROI),
last week I am at -9% ROI (150-200 sample size on saturday and sunday)

I often do manual check every monday morning to compare my bet with pinnacle's CL
When i check oddsportal. most of dafabets line are on the opposite side of pinnacle (Ex: pinnacle offering highest odds on team A, while dafabet is offering highest odds on team B among dozens of bookies) which make me place value bet on dafatbet, until i got a very bad downswings this last 4 weeks.

anybody suffer the same lose with me?
I also read few members suffer lose in this thread
https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=7531.msg79082#new

Yes for me it started at the second month of covid(covid first month started at the middle of first month). Bookies models are still based on pre covid  period, not taking into account the current situations.  I work with IBC lines and tbf, beat it pretty well but no profit. For example took home -1 at 2.04 and closing was -1.25 at 1.86 kind of moves and for past months been quite bad.
I guess taking reference from pinny is not as efficient as it was before and therefore one would need to compile his own odds to make better judgment about values(or use his own analyses/whatever makes better odds/lines).
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dealer wins
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Re: Is this an acceptable downswings? I beat 70-80% of pinnacle's CL
« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2020, 07:52:15 PM »

Use Betfair as the closing line.  Pinnacle not always sharp, Betfair on and liquid market is 100% sharp, every time.
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valakivagyok
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Re: Is this an acceptable downswings? I beat 70-80% of pinnacle's CL
« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2020, 09:55:08 PM »

Use Betfair as the closing line.  Pinnacle not always sharp, Betfair on and liquid market is 100% sharp, every time.

Betfair is not always 100% sharp unfortunately. It is hard to decide which is the sharpest, you should look at atleast 10000 matches with closing lines to determine that...
« Last Edit: October 06, 2020, 09:59:07 PM by valakivagyok » Logged
valakivagyok
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valakivagyok

Re: Is this an acceptable downswings? I beat 70-80% of pinnacle's CL
« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2020, 09:58:25 PM »

Forgot to add: if you have data to prove that Betfair is sharper than Pinny then view my comment as irrelevant!

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dealer wins
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Re: Is this an acceptable downswings? I beat 70-80% of pinnacle's CL
« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2020, 10:36:04 PM »

No data, but over the years I am hugely ahead on Pinnacle (£285000), and hugely down on Betfair.  Im lifetime down £425000 on Betfair since 2006 and commision only accounts for £184000 of that.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Is this an acceptable downswings? I beat 70-80% of pinnacle's CL
« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2020, 11:05:15 PM »

I totally agree with dealer wins that a liquid betfair line is a good, if not the best reference. The question is when a market is liquid. Many lines are present on pinnacle but not on betfair, at least not with offers in it.

Amateurs offering bets on empty betfair markets may give you false value signals if you don't watch out.

Also, your service (if you use one) may misinterpret the reference. Due to such experiences in the past, today I always do a manual check of my reference before placing a bet.

I recommend that you look into your past bets and categorize them into groups by liquidity. Such a categorization is to some extent based on subjectivity and not an easy task. Better than nothing though.

If you find yourself to be winning on big games and losing on small, the likelyhood for that to be based on pure variance is less. Big game odds are formed by the opinions of thousands of people and extensive quantitative analyses. Small games are not and the odds may depend on so many other uncertain things. Consequently big game closing odds are a much more precise evaluation of expected outcome than small game closing odds. So small game closing odds can be quite unreliable as a reference and may even work against you in the long run.

Another approach is to simply go through your losing bets and see if there are ups and downs patterns in the odds before the match that look similar and atypical. Or anything else that these losing bets have in common.

It is hard work, but it may pay off.

I had a good September month, but only because I decided to stake less or to not bet at all in many occasions due to a handfull of conclusions from past bet analysis. In many of those occasions I took the sharp side instead. Had this been last year, the September result would have been negative for sure.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2020, 11:09:43 PM by VidaBlue » Logged
mita8888
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mita8888

Re: Is this an acceptable downswings? I beat 70-80% of pinnacle's CL
« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2020, 01:11:54 AM »

I do print all of my betting statement each weekend and write down manually all of pinnacle closing odds, and see how they behave on oddsportal history. So right now i have see some pattern i will explain below:

1. Odds taken by me reversed, Ev is gone, pinnacle and asians odds are risen (usually this game ended up with a loss)

2. Odds taken by me, beat pinnacle closing line and place the bet when pinnacle line is dropping. So the asians will follow to drop the odds, i place bet faster before they update the odds (usually this game ended up with a win or a real value because all bookies are agree to drop down their oddds)

3. Odds taken by me, beat pinnacle closing line, but the asian books did not dropping their odds / do opposite things. This usually ended up Pinnacle is offering highest odds on team A in closing line, while DAFABET/SBO offering highest odds on team B in closing line among others (majority of this game is a loss, 1 month data, sample size is about 1000 bets manual monitor)

I even think that i was played by the asian books. there is 1 case that pinnacle is opening a market more than 1 day before, and right now is offering about 2.06 on a selection. Suddenly, dafabet open this market 17 minutes before kick off and offering 2.38. I place the bet and got loss.

I am open to any suggestion about what i should do now. should i just pause my VB activities for a while?
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VidaBlue
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Re: Is this an acceptable downswings? I beat 70-80% of pinnacle's CL
« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2020, 08:35:01 AM »

I am open to any suggestion about what i should do now. should i just pause my VB activities for a while?
It depends on how much time you're willing to invest in filtering your past bets for future improvement.

Your past bets is a goldmine of valuable data, especially the losing segment. I have lost much on full time O/U markets in soccer and basket in the past. Today it benefits me. It seems that you're already in the process of categorizing different patterns and you've noticed some differences in how much they win or lose. That is very good.

You could start decreasing your stake drastically in those categories where you lose. Do not stop betting, as the data you accumulate may be valuable to you at a later stage, so you stay in touch with this market. You may even start betting the sharp side if you become convinced it is the right thing to do. You might not always be able to tell which category a value bet pertains at the time of the bet, but in some categories you should be able to. For instance, in the category where asian books do not drop, you should maybe just observe for 10-20 seconds or so to see if the asians follow. If they do, bet normally, if not, reduced stake.

In the last case, where dafa is entering market 17 minutes before kickoff, it is kind of obvious that they have superior knowledge as they would never set the odds against pinnacle, if pinnacle odds indeed was the text book answer for expected outcome. In such specific cases, maybe you should start betting small stakes at sharps right away.

Those challenges we're encountering now are very positive for our future earning expectations. For some time, value betting services have been simplifying the process for their customers and such "easy money" schemes will eventually implode themselves as in any market on earth. The services may claim to develop more intelligent criteria for delivering their value bets, but as it needs to be automated, it is much more challenging for them than for us as thinking individuals. We can have expectations that this rewards those who are able to adapt via persistency and hard work.
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