Bwin Value bets I lost too much this weekend

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Sonny
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Sonny

Bwin Value bets I lost too much this weekend
« on: October 19, 2020, 09:28:04 PM »

Hi guys. I opened account in bwin and started value betting but i lost almost all bets. what im doing wrong?

I choose bwin, pinnacle, betfair as bookmakers.
I set show arb to %2.
 I bet only bwin side on arbs above %2.
but that doesnt seem to work.

which advice u can give me? what im doing wrong?
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dealer wins
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Re: Bwin Value bets I lost too much this weekend
« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2020, 09:58:41 PM »

Like a weekend in Vegas, you can be a mile up or a mile down.  But go for 52 weekends and you will be 99.9% down.

Variance takes time to even out.  5000 markets should even it out 99.99% of the time.
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Re: Bwin Value bets I lost too much this weekend
« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2020, 08:39:46 AM »

My suggestion is,

Bet value when arb percentage is %3+.
Before betting the value, check Pinnacle limits and Betfair liquidty. If Betfair volume is only 30-40$, it’s not a reliable indicator.

Be patient. You may have losing days, even losing weeks. Maybe a losing month..but in the end it will even out. You will experience amazing winning streaks but also horrible losing streaks. Don’t go tilt. Patience is the key. Just bet the value, time and mathematics will take care of the rest..
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Alfa1234
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Re: Bwin Value bets I lost too much this weekend
« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2020, 09:35:09 AM »

It's also not that simple.  Sometimes there is "fake" value, 1 side is being bet up several hours before the game when limits are low but then being bet down again once limits increase before the start, smaller markets may not be efficient enough...

I suggest, to start, you only value bet the larger leagues and bet very close to the kickoff time of the match.  That should definitely help weed out some of the fake value. 
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risilloch
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Re: Bwin Value bets I lost too much this weekend
« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2020, 11:11:57 AM »

I did something similar after Pinnacle left the UK.

I presumed Pinnacle was the sharp side but i was wrong and pretty much lost my bankroll pursuing valuebetting on the
soft side only.

My approach was too simplistic. There is some good advice here. Also a stake management is important so that you don't blow your bankroll during a losing streak.

My lesson was that Pinnacle early prices were not sharp on European domestic basketball leagues, certainly not at the beginning of the season.
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VidaBlue
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Re: Bwin Value bets I lost too much this weekend
« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2020, 11:28:57 AM »

I lost soo much 6 weekends ago, but I won sooo much 3 weekends ago. Your first hurdle is to establish confidence that it works. Follow the competent advices of this thread. Liquidity is important.

Value betting is not simple, it will never be. If easy money is made from something based on simple consistent rules, such profitable pattern slowly disappears as in any market.

If you get through the first hurdle, you may try refining your betting by removing segments that don't give you profits or increase betting on those that do. One thing I consider much currently: follow the trend. Just like shorting stocks, if the tendency is moving upwards, be careful entering this market even though your simple rules tell you to.
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justanarber
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Re: Bwin Value bets I lost too much this weekend
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2020, 11:30:54 AM »

I think some on here greatly understimate variance, definitley the OP does, his sample size was incredibly small.

arbing accounts with betfair can be in profit even after 100's or even 1000's of bets, winning months on betfair are normal

bet365 bot accounts can have losing weeks or losing months even when they have placed 1000's of bets

in the end variance will even out but many bankrolls will be gone before it does, valuebetting is gambling and to be sure of a profit
you need a big edge or a massive sample.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2020, 11:33:56 AM by justanarber » Logged
VidaBlue
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Re: Bwin Value bets I lost too much this weekend
« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2020, 11:44:16 AM »

arbing accounts with betfair can be in profit even after 100's or even 1000's of bets, winning months on betfair are normal
True. When I started arbing some years ago, pinnacle account was still positive after 800 bets before it hit a big losing streak. At that time pinnacle was considered sharper. In the end it was down 3-4% overall.
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Wolfie
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Re: Bwin Value bets I lost too much this weekend
« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2020, 12:27:12 PM »

I think Alfa1234 advice is very valuable. If you notice the markets with high liquidity betfair and pinnacle have almost same odds if you substract betfair fees. Some members here even mentioned that they take value in sharps in low liquidity markets where they make most mistakes. As times are coming there is no simple value betting formula like it was before, just go against sharps. Now you have to mine your data and come to your own results and your individual strategy. This takes a lot of effort but is high reward.
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Sonny
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Sonny

Re: Bwin Value bets I lost too much this weekend
« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2020, 01:49:58 PM »

I forgot to say..i bet live only.

Thank you for your comments and advices :)
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DkStyle
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Re: Bwin Value bets I lost too much this weekend
« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2020, 04:55:34 PM »

Limits have been going down, and down for a long time at Pinnacle. And that means that they are not the sharp bookmaker that they used to be. Especially on lower leagues/sports it takes almost nothing to push them into an arb with a soft book. And if the limits is just 100 EUR it does not mean that their price is correct, just because someone moved the price out of sync with the softs. If you follow them on markets with low limits, you can lose your money pretty quickly I would guess.
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justanarber
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Re: Bwin Value bets I lost too much this weekend
« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2020, 05:52:13 PM »

Pinnacle, which I used to love but don't use now or for some time as I am in UK were definitely in the past very sharp and very smart but this was compared to the UK soft bookmakers, sadly for arbing these soft bookmakers are not nearly as stupid any more.

I believe that not only have soft bookmakers became much smarter, also the bettor has become smarter too meaning Pinnacle isn't
the stand out it once was.

I am so glad I discovered arbing in those much easier days, far better liquidity on betfair and Pinnacle, sbobet, 188bet and 12bet
as excellent alternatives.

much harder environment now, I think only wise new guys and dinosaurs survive.
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Maxx7875
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Maxx7875

Re: Bwin Value bets I lost too much this weekend
« Reply #12 on: November 11, 2020, 06:43:35 AM »

I place bet365 304 bets. And my loss is -42 usd. Please guys help to find best value and make profit. I use rebelbet for valuebetting
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Yngwie/Sawyer
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Re: Bwin Value bets I lost too much this weekend
« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2020, 01:02:27 PM »

There may be ups and downs. Patience is very important in value betting.

If you're losing, try to increase ''Min. Arb %''

« Last Edit: November 11, 2020, 02:33:22 PM by Yngwie/Sawyer » Logged
barret19
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barret19

Re: Bwin Value bets I lost too much this weekend
« Reply #14 on: November 11, 2020, 02:12:59 PM »

I also have bad results from July until now. Im on profit but I should have made 3x more according to maths,variance and past history. Something is going on against us value bettor, and I don´t think it´s from Pinnacle.
I advise you to never bet on early markets, specially now that covid affects a lot of players and odds can flip very fast due to some key players missing.
Stick to 24-48hour max before kick off to place your value bets, also do a proper bankroll management (1%max per bet) and avoid odds bigger than 3 / 4.00 decimal.

There are a lot of suspicions that more teams are fixing a lot of matches in live.  Maybe they trying to compensate the lack of income from having no public and stop selling tickets.

For example today, I had a value bet on Volleyball Belgorod - Novosibirsk match . Novosibirsk to win 3-0 sets @ 1.83 , they were a huge 1.07 favourite.
They won the first 2 sets, so odds were for sure 1.01 at that time, then they lost the next 3 sets and the match! Things like this can get you out of your mind.

« Last Edit: November 11, 2020, 02:28:53 PM by barret19 » Logged
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