When betting value bet, what is your minimum % to bet?

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Sonny
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Sonny

When betting value bet, what is your minimum % to bet?
« on: October 23, 2020, 07:10:53 PM »

You bet all arbs above %3 or %4?
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VidaBlue
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Re: When betting value bet, what is your minimum % to bet?
« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2020, 10:51:33 PM »

I consider value on arb of any percentage, but I will consider value differently depending on the arb percentage and I will always consider other factors as well.

When arb percentage is low (0-2%): when arb percentage is low, I consider that the juice or spread of sharps and exchanges are proportionally more important. It may be that the sharp side got traded until the very edge of the spread on the exchange or the profit margin of the sharp line, in which case true odds would reside ½ a spread/margin from the sharp line and consequently both sides of a 0% arb would have 0% value, in theory. In such cases I think it is worth considering how odds have moved, if there is a downtrend and if there have been recent large sudden drops (big bets) on the line, if all other books are lowering their odds, etc.

When arb percentage is high (2-5%): it is very likely that there is value on soft side from the simple fact that one side is known to be sharp and the other soft. The classic definition of a value bet. I always check the odd history to make sure that it wasn't the soft side who made the odd change and thereby caused the arb, in which case I would tread carefully as it could be either a system glitch but also an intentional move from their part (trap).

When arb percentage is very high (above 5%): Based on a history of bad experiences, I usually think it is too good to be true and often it is. Among other things, it could be a malfunction in the service, that took the wrong odds for comparison. It could someone aggressively manipulating odds on the sharp, a false signal. It will need a quick background check, even a personal visit at the sharp site, before a bet can be placed. The high arb percentage will never lead to the assumption of super high value and drastically increased stakes, since the nature of these events are kind of suspicious, even with a positive background check.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2020, 10:54:14 PM by VidaBlue » Logged
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