Arbusers

According to your plan, and if I understand it correctly, we are about to sell our ETH at some point to buy BTC. You set a maximum of 30% of your portfolio for ETH. Is there a minimum % of ETH that you will keep if the move that you expect takes place?
Thank you.

Nice analysis!
Indeed cycles are following the scheme BTC->ETH(+big cap cryptos)->Mid-low caps->BTC

Now when the time is right and target prices have reached we need to answer some very important questions
For example:

1) Take your altcoin profits back in BTC or in fiat/stable coins ?
2) Take your profits (from BTC and/or alts) to fiat and back to your bank account (possibly triggering a taxable event and unpleasent obligations to tax authorities) or just take profits and keep it on stable coins ?

This trade has the goal to outperform BTC. It is not an isolated trade, but it is a part of a bigger plan. For this, I plotted a path for the current cycle of BTC and cryptos in general.
I believe we are just at the beginning of this cycle and we have a lot of time until the peak of another mega-bubble. Therefore my plan is to jump from one bubble to another and successfully jump out of the market before the mega bubble breaks. Of course, you never know, but it is a good bet with value odds that BTC will get to its top somewhere between the end of 2021 (the earliest) and the end of 2023 (the latest).
So my target is to sell part of my ETH portfolio back to BTC.
I really can't advise about taxable events, simply because each country has a different taxation system. You are alone with this.

I would like to update you on what the current state of play is.

ETH moved up together with BTC offering profits, but not at the same pace. BTC is galloping. Thus the ETHBTC rate touched sensitive lines and it broke the support line that we followed since the beginning of this thread. In addition, the RSI is moving slowly downwards and this is a sign that more time is needed until we see the anticipated reverse. It seems to me there are some 10 RSI points needed downwards until we see the move that we are looking for. With the current relationship between ETH and BTC, some more weeks are requested.
See the graph below:

Boss, I am already 50% up with my investment. Many thanks one more time.
What should I do now? Should I cash my position?

Congrats on your winnings. You are free to act as you wish. But I will tell you what I do with my money. I will keep the position for a number of reasons:
1. Because we are still early in the market cycle.
2. Because thankfully ETH is benefitting from BTC's strength, but at the same time, unfortunately, it is not taking the lead.
3. Because our initial plan still has a big possibility playing out true, and thus award us with superior profits.

Of course, none of this is investment advise.

Boss, I am already 80% up with my investment. Many thanks one more time.
What should I do now? Should I cash my position? Sorry for asking again the same things, but please accept I am in tention right now.

Again, congrats on your winnings. I will keep the position as it is for now, for the following reasons.
1. Because we are still early in the market cycle. I have an asterisk here. The recent boost to BTC and ETH makes me wonder about the nature and the cycle of this cycle. Frankly, I would prefer going up at a slower pace.
2. Because at last, ETH is taking the lead from BTC. This might be early to say, but today's move is outperforming BTC's. We will need some more days like this to be 100% sure if ETH takes the lead.
3. And that leads to the 3rd reason, our initial plan has a very big possibility playing out trues and awards us with superior profits.

Now I would like to examine the situation with the help of technical analysis. This again is in our favor. Today, ETH broke 2 very important resistances at 800 and 915$. The next resistance is at 1220 and frankly, there is nothing there to stop it from touching it. After that, it is the ATH in 1380 and I see no reason why we shouldn't go there especially after the ATH of BTC.
Again, I prefer things to cool down a little bit.

Have a look at the following graph and let me know if something is not clear. Would you prefer this kind of analysis instead of texts?
Thank you.

Personally would prefer both.

Charts are nice but many are not able to read them properly without having the text.

apoel81 wrote: Personally would prefer both.

Charts are nice but many are not able to read them properly without having the text.

OK, we ll have both in the future.

Boss, I am 130% up. What should I do now?
Sorry to ask again.
Thank you.

With first target of 0.04 Btc per ETH on sight , what would you do boss?
Would you take ETH profits in fiat or in  BTC? Or combination ?
Thanks

neopas wrote: Boss, I am 130% up. What should I do now?
Sorry to ask again.
Thank you.

So funny to hear you everyday saying how your investments are going up  and up and up.

neopas wrote: Boss, I am 130% up. What should I do now?

You should read this thread.

cortomaltese wrote: With first target of 0.04 Btc per ETH on sight , what would you do boss?
Would you take ETH profits in fiat or in  BTC? Or combination ?

This is a great question, but there is no answer right now. This is because we don't know the state of play and we don't have the overall picture of the market when it goes to 0.04. When/If we get there I will be able to answer.
But for now, I can present some possible scenarios and what we would like to see.
First of all, we don't want to see these ups and downs. We need the market to cool off a little bit. If it doesn't cool off, then the over-all hypothesis on where we are in the market cycle will be considered wrong. We need to see the top of the market somewhere in 2022-23 and not in the next days. If it continues gapping up with +10% each day, then the top of the market will be there in the next days/weeks. We don't want that to happen now.
We need to see BTC staying still, or even better bleeding slowly, losing small pieces of value each day, while at the same time ETH gains value. thankfully, this is already happening and the price of BTC is lower than the average sell price, thanks to our dynamic dollar-cost averaging of the last days.
So if that happens, we will happily convert part of our ETH portfolio to BTC when we get to 0.04. I am highlighting the word ''part'' because it would be a mistake to use an all-in/all-out tactic. Who knows? Maybe the ration continues to go up, why let these potential profits go like this? The 0.04 ratio is the first target, not the last.
But if this scenario does not play out the way we want it, we might prefer the safety of fiat currency.
To sum up, it is too early, let's see what is ahead of us.