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Long on ETH

Where to invest the surplus of funds

Our good member CharlieSheen99 suggested that we start a new board in our forum dedicated to cryptos only. What do you think?

Yes, start the board.
28
80%
No, no need for it.
7
20%
 
Total votes: 35
kapetan1122
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Re: Long on ETH

Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:26 am

CharlieSheen99 wrote:
neopas wrote: Boss, I am 130% up. What should I do now?
Sorry to ask again.
Thank you.
So funny to hear you everyday saying how your investments are going up  and up and up.
I belive this is his superstition and its working good for him  ;D
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Re: Long on ETH

Mon Jan 04, 2021 9:32 am

[/quote]

We need to see the top of the market somewhere in 2022-23 and not in the next days.

[/quote]

Most of the experts belive this bull cycle will last for 1 year and we still have maybe 10 months to go,historically it was like this for last couple of cycles,why do you belive this time it will last longer?
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Re: Long on ETH

Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:15 am

arbusers wrote:
neopas wrote: Boss, I am 130% up. What should I do now?
You should read this thread.
cortomaltese wrote: With first target of 0.04 Btc per ETH on sight , what would you do boss?
Would you take ETH profits in fiat or in  BTC? Or combination ?
This is a great question, but there is no answer right now. This is because we don't know the state of play and we don't have the overall picture of the market when it goes to 0.04. When/If we get there I will be able to answer.
But for now, I can present some possible scenarios and what we would like to see.
First of all, we don't want to see these ups and downs. We need the market to cool off a little bit. If it doesn't cool off, then the over-all hypothesis on where we are in the market cycle will be considered wrong. We need to see the top of the market somewhere in 2022-23 and not in the next days. If it continues gapping up with +10% each day, then the top of the market will be there in the next days/weeks. We don't want that to happen now.
We need to see BTC staying still, or even better bleeding slowly, losing small pieces of value each day, while at the same time ETH gains value. thankfully, this is already happening and the price of BTC is lower than the average sell price, thanks to our dynamic dollar-cost averaging of the last days.
So if that happens, we will happily convert part of our ETH portfolio to BTC when we get to 0.04. I am highlighting the word ''part'' because it would be a mistake to use an all-in/all-out tactic. Who knows? Maybe the ration continues to go up, why let these potential profits go like this? The 0.04 ratio is the first target, not the last.
But if this scenario does not play out the way we want it, we might prefer the safety of fiat currency.
To sum up, it is too early, let's see what is ahead of us.
I know that by complimenting you i don't add something new to the topic but still i must do it!
Clear thinking and writing and to the point as always
Thanks boss!
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arbusers
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Re: Long on ETH

Tue Jan 05, 2021 7:38 am

kapetan1122 wrote: Most of the experts believe this bull cycle will last for 1 year and we still have maybe 10 months to go, historically it was like this for the last couple of cycles, why do you believe this time it will last longer?
I have serious doubts about these experts. To me, it looks like all these people are in the hunt for clicks and visibility with no skin in the game. Have a look at these 1000s of youtube channels, with an everyday video, titles including ''OMG'' and other cliches like these. What I would like to see in these videos is human psychology and behavior, technical analysis of some level, Elliot Wave Theory and things like that.
I am not saying that all of these channels are click-baiting. All I am saying is that only 2-3 out of 1000 channels might have something interesting to say. The same applies to the Twitter-sphere.

Now let me speak shortly about the overall picture of the market the way I see it.
I know this thread is about ETH, but no question about it, BTC is the currency that holds the violin and all others will have to dance according to the rhythm. This will only change when another cryptocurrency takes the lead in market capitalization. Currently, BTC holds 65+% of the total market cap. The current trend is to lose parts of this dominance but it will take some years until it leaves (if ever) the violin aside.

Halvings are dominant events in the cycles of BTC. This is because BTC tends to go very near its fair value around and during the halving dates for a number of reasons not examined here. This created a confirmed pattern for the tops that have to happen somewhere between 2 halvings. Halvings happen every 4 years, to be more accurate slightly less than 4 years. The next halving will happen around the middle of February 2024.

If we see a top now, as these experts say, this will not allow us to take all the money from the table. Because that will mean a long bear market starting at the date of the top in 2021, and spanning until 2023-2025. What we want is to have a long bull market now that will end at the end of 2022/end of 2023, allowing us to jump from one bubble to another, among various currencies, but most importantly between ETH and BTC. If we successfully jump from one bubble to another then we will talk about compound performance and not only the performance of just 1 crypto. Maybe a single bubble gives us a very much welcome performance of 100%, but jumping continuously from 1 bubble to another might give us a more welcoming performance of 300%.

Besides this, where is the quartet of investing? Behavioral investing, value investing, technical analysis, and the Elliot Wave theory. Of course, there is an unidentified 5th element, let's call it, for now, market sentiment, probably the most important of them all. But a vertical bubble giving us 10% each day is depriving the prudent investor of 4 out of 5 elements. A vertical bubble will mean a vertical drop, and that drop might be at 30-50% per day. We don't want that to happen. We want the market to offer us an additional luxury called time to think and act. Because our thinking is our edge against all these click baits.

PS. Click baits are welcome to a certain extent, because they represent dumb money. In the end, this is the money that will be distributed.

Hope that helps.
Last edited by arbusers on Tue Jan 05, 2021 8:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Long on ETH

Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:38 am

arbusers wrote:
kapetan1122 wrote: Most of the experts believe this bull cycle will last for 1 year and we still have maybe 10 months to go, historically it was like this for the last couple of cycles, why do you believe this time it will last longer?
I have serious doubts about these experts. To me, it looks like all these people are in the hunt for clicks and visibility with no skin in the game. Have a look at these 1000s of youtube channels, with an everyday video, titles including ''OMG'' and other cliches like these. What I would like to see in these videos is human psychology and behavior, technical analysis of some level, Elliot Wave Theory and things like that.
I am not saying that all of these channels are click-baiting. All I am saying is that only 2-3 out of 1000 channels might have something interesting to say. The same applies to the Twitter-sphere.

Now let me speak shortly about the overall picture of the market the way I see it.
I know this thread is about ETH, but no question about it, BTC is the currency that holds the violin and all others will have to dance according to the rhythm. This will only change when another cryptocurrency takes the lead in market capitalization. Currently, BTC holds 65+% of the total market cap. The current trend is to lose parts of this dominance but it will take some years until it leaves (if ever) the violin aside.

Halvings are dominant events in the cycles of BTC. This is because BTC tends to go very near its fair value around and during the halving dates for a number of reasons not examined here. This created a confirmed pattern for the tops that have to happen somewhere between 2 halvings. Halvings happen every 4 years, to be more accurate slightly less than 4 years. The next halving will happen around the middle of February 2024.

If we see a top now, as these experts say, this will not allow us to take all the money from the table. Because that will mean a long bear market starting at the date of the top in 2021, and spanning until 2023-2025. What we want is to have a long bull market now that will end at the end of 2022/end of 2023, allowing us to jump from one bubble to another, among various currencies, but most importantly between ETH and BTC. If we successfully jump from one bubble to another then we will talk about compound performance and not only the performance of just 1 crypto. Maybe a single bubble gives us a very much welcome performance of 100%, but jumping continuously from 1 bubble to another might give us a more welcoming performance of 300%.

Besides this, where is the quartet of investing? Behavioral investing, value investing, technical analysis, and the Elliot Wave theory. Of course, there is an unidentified 5th element, let's call it, for now, market sentiment, probably the most important of them all. But a vertical bubble giving us 10% each day is depriving the prudent investor of 4 out of 5 elements. A vertical bubble will mean a vertical drop, and that drop might be at 30-50% per day. We don't want that to happen. We want the market to offer us an additional luxury called time to think and act. Because our thinking is our edge against all these click baits.

PS. Click baits are welcome to a certain extent, because they represent dumb money. In the end, this is the money that will be distributed.

Hope that helps.
What part of current btc market cap is institutional investment and what part market sentiment approximately in your opinion ?
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Re: Long on ETH

Tue Jan 05, 2021 10:55 am

Wolfie wrote: What part of current btc market cap is institutional investment and what part market sentiment approximately in your opinion ?
No-one knows what part of the total market cap belongs to institutions. There is no question, institutions are here, but how many are they really? And what is their quality? I can tell you these ups and downs of 10% per day are not good for institutional investors.
But speaking of institutional investors, there is growing rhetoric about them. Could someone explain why they have to invest in BTC? I can't find any solid argument for this, and that leads to the conclusion, these investors are exactly like us, speculative.

I also see some of them saying ''hodl forever'' and all these meaningless cliches. I recently made a contact with someone that holds many 1000s of BTC at an institutional level. I asked him ''at what level would you sell your BTC'', just to receive no answer.
Now let's see what were his options:
1. ''I will not sell for ever''. Would that be something according to the mandate he has from the shareholders? What if BTC goes to 0 one day?
2. ''I will see at X USD''. That would destroy all of his public narratives.

Conclusion. They all have an imaginary price target they will sell to others. Let's take advantage of this.
Last edited by arbusers on Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Long on ETH

Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:17 pm

arbusers wrote:
Wolfie wrote: What part of current btc market cap is institutional investment and what part market sentiment approximately in your opinion ?
No-one knows what part of the total market cap belongs to institutions. There is no question, institutions are here, but how many are they really? And what is their quality? I can tell you these ups and downs of 10% per day are not good for institutional investors.
But speaking of institutional investors, there is growing rhetoric about them. Could someone explain why they have to invest in BTC? I can't find any solid argument for this, and that leads to the conclusion, these investors are exactly like us, speculative.

I also see some of them saying ''hodl forever'' and all these meaningless cliches. I recently made a contact with someone that holds many 1000s of BTC at an institutional level. I asked him ''at what level would you sell your BTC'', just to receive no answer.
Now let's see what were his options:
1. ''I will not sell for ever''. Would that be something according to the mandate he has from the shareholders? What if BTC goes to 0 one day?
2. ''I will see at X USD''. That would destroy all of his public narratives.

Conclusion. They all have an imaginary price target they will sell to others. Let's take advantage of this.
Totally agree with the logic, but at same time there is another type of investor that sees bitcoin like gold, wealth perseverance, they see it as a solution to the fiat inflation and as a hedge in the times of the stock market crashing. But i think a big part of this is rhetoric too. But this type of investor, long term one exist and i cant say for sure what percentage do they hold.
There is a lot of opportunity in this market as there is a lot of risk. I am curious what will happen when crypto marketcap stays more than 1 trillion for more than one year. What will regulators do ? Biden administration is till now is positive it will regulate but not ban.
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Re: Long on ETH

Tue Jan 05, 2021 6:53 pm

Could someone explain why they have to invest in BTC? I can't find any solid argument for this, and that leads to the conclusion, these investors are exactly like us, speculative.
There are many reasons to do it but in this post i will focus to just one:
Fiat inflation!
US alone printed trillions of dollars just in 2020 with no sign of slow down printing and i suppose  institutions sitting on piles of cash doesn't like it very much seeing  losing value day by day.
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Re: Long on ETH

Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:35 pm

Have a look at the following graph. And tell me what do you think?

A. Protection from inflation, or
B. Speculation

speculation.png
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Re: Long on ETH

Wed Jan 06, 2021 9:27 am

arbusers wrote: Have a look at the following graph. And tell me what do you think?

A. Protection from inflation, or
B. Speculation

[attachment id=0 msg=81471]
I would go for 5% protection and 95% speculation. Of course i am speculating about this. But the essence is we should trade keeping in mind that this is mostly a speculative asset. And it looks like most of big spaculators are in sync. They are all trading with almost same formula. Mostly technical analysis. So this becomes a self fulfilling prophecy and we should take the opportunity. All this at the cost of the ignorant people who always buy when price is at the top.
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Re: Long on ETH

Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:24 am

Of course there's speculation involved here , no question about it!
My argument is that institutions are not day trayders and they are building long term positions as a hedge against
possible downfall of the cureent economic system , as a hedge against fiat inflation , as a bet on the future of blockchain technology etc etc
So i believe that we should set a hold position that we wouldn't sell no matter the price for at least some years
The other part of our position should be sold when certain targets reached into fiat or back to btc
Tricky part is to set these targets and to decide if profits should be taken in fiat or btc
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Re: Long on ETH

Wed Jan 06, 2021 12:11 pm

cortomaltese wrote: Tricky part is to set these targets and to decide if profits should be taken in fiat or btc
This a very important and difficult question. I would say its a day by day decision, it cant be final. Sometimes you may go to fiat , sometimes to other crypto, sometimes to other parts of your investment portfolio. Arbusers makes some suggestions from time to time.
Last edited by Wolfie on Wed Jan 06, 2021 12:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Long on ETH

Wed Jan 06, 2021 12:53 pm

Wolfie wrote:
cortomaltese wrote: Tricky part is to set these targets and to decide if profits should be taken in fiat or btc
This a very important and difficult question. I would say its a day by day decision, it cant be final. Sometimes you may go to fiat , sometimes to other crypto, sometimes to other parts of your investment portfolio. Arbusers makes some suggestions from time to time.
100% agree! No easy answer here! It's a day by day process for sure and mostly is based on objective assumptions and strategies. I surely appreciate very much arbuser's work , it's a usefull beacon in this chaotic sea of data!
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Re: Long on ETH

Wed Jan 06, 2021 1:35 pm

One of the things that I don't like in this bull run, is the lack of time. Time is so precious in the markets, and especially in cryptos, it offers market maturity that is needed and missed so much.
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Re: Long on ETH

Wed Jan 06, 2021 5:50 pm

ETH is about to cut an important resistance, if so, the next resistance will be at the previous ATH of 2018.
We are noticing that the weekly RSI is already on its own ATH, while the monthly RSI (not shown in the graph) is at around 80 with the previous ATH at 88.

ETH latest.png


Under these circumstances, I would like to predispose you, that if we get to the previous ATH of 2018 I will sell part of my portfolio to fiat currency. The percentage will be decided when we get there. This will be valid unless a major turn gets BTC price to a much lower level.

We do not know yet if this is a deviation from our initial plan that demanded an ETHBTC ratio at 0.04, but the situation is so liquid and changes at a blink of the eye, that demands a rapid assessment with the data that we have at any given time.

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