Long on ETH (page 4)

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Author Topic: Long on ETH  (Read 8901 times)
arbusers
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #45 on: January 06, 2021, 08:17:25 PM »
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ΕΤΗ tested the resistance and quickly got back South. This is not necessarily bad as it helps gather momentum for the next effort, gives space to breathe for the RSI, and helps for maturity.
Seems people are reading our forum.
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cortomaltese
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #46 on: January 06, 2021, 08:21:09 PM »
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Quote
This will be valid unless a major turn gets BTC price to a much lower level.
I guess you mean that if BTC falls and ETH continues to ATH you will sell ETH into BTC instead of fiat ?
Moreover i couldn't aggree with you more that markets are moving so quickly that it's increasingly difficult to follow!
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CharlieSheen99
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #47 on: January 06, 2021, 08:26:36 PM »
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Quote
This will be valid unless a major turn gets BTC price to a much lower level.
I guess you mean that if BTC falls and ETH continues to ATH you will sell ETH into BTC instead of fiat ?
Moreover i couldn't aggree with you more that markets are moving so quickly that it's increasingly difficult to follow!

I think that if BTC moves down we should sell every position in other cryptos.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #48 on: January 06, 2021, 08:58:52 PM »
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I guess you mean that if BTC falls and ETH continues to ATH you will sell ETH into BTC instead of fiat ?

Yes, correct. That would be the perfect plan as described from the very start of this thread. If your average buying price of ETH is 400, it will be like buying BTC at 9K, when you turn your ETH to BTC.
But most probably the market will not give us this pleasure.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #49 on: January 06, 2021, 09:00:31 PM »
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I think that if BTC moves down we should sell every position in other cryptos.

That is why we prefer BTC to cool off a little bit, move sideways, or even lose some of its value on a daily basis.
We could welcome a scenario where BTC loses 1% each day, and ETH loses 0.5%. That would work perfectly for us.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #50 on: January 07, 2021, 05:35:50 PM »
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This is to inform you that 10% of my ETH portfolio was sold to fiat at 1270$.
I know the initial plan was not materialised, but it gave us profits too and on average it outperformed the BTC performance of the time.
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cortomaltese
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #51 on: January 07, 2021, 07:07:06 PM »
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This is to inform you that 10% of my ETH portfolio was sold to fiat at 1270$.
I know the initial plan was not materialised, but it gave us profits too and on average it outperformed the BTC performance of the time.

Again thank you for your suggestions and transparency!
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arbusers
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #52 on: January 08, 2021, 09:14:04 AM »
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I would like to share with you a recent thought I made.
As we all know BTC's dominant in the crypto market should be taken for granted at least for some years to come. This will stop when ETH to an alt coin takes the lead to replace BTC from the top.
Various models have shown that a healthy portfolio should have more BTCs than ETH and Altcoins. This would also create a golden cut (φ) that would maintain a near perfection performance to the portfolio.
But during the frenzy of these last days, we sold more BTCs that ETH. Already, my portfolio is in deviation from the above. That means that if the market allows, I will sell more ETH in the near future, even if the desired targets are not achieved.
Again, this is what I say today, and I reserve the right to change opinion according to what the market dictates.
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gamblehappier
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #53 on: January 12, 2021, 03:21:28 AM »
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This is to inform you that 10% of my ETH portfolio was sold to fiat at 1270$.
I know the initial plan was not materialised, but it gave us profits too and on average it outperformed the BTC performance of the time.

Arbusers are you a prophet?

You sell ETH at the highest price.Really well done!If members follow your predictions will have a good profit.
Ethereum price goes up and down like crazy.I believe there are serious trading opportunities in cryptos(needs a lot of discussion)
Pesonally i buy at 580 and sell at 880.Again bravo for the price that you sell it(even 10/100).
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arbusers
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #54 on: January 13, 2021, 08:18:10 AM »
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I would like to provide an update on what the current state of play is with ETH, the same way I did with BTC earlier today: https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=7174.msg81739#msg81739
Due to BTCs dominancy in the market capitalisation of the total crypto market, it important to understand BTC’s market first, before we move to ETH or any other alt coin.

So far we sold 10% of our position very near the top, and I must say that given the developments of these last days, our position would be much better if we have sold significantly more than this. However, the market is characterised by randomness to a large extend, and the situation as it is right now, might favour us. Let’s see why I say this.

In my view, the ETH market remains on a bullish mode, despite the recent sell off, simply because BTC is also on a bullish mode. The reasons why I see this are the following:

1. On a macro level, we are still within a cycle that is expected to top in the coming years.
2. No major technical indicator is broken yet.
3. The monthly RSI, did not close to the previous ATHs to a level that would indicate the top of a bull cycle. In addition, no negative divergences are present in both weekly and monthly frames.

ETH update.png

To understand what our chances are we first need to think what BTC is willing to do. If it goes up, then it will drag with it all alt coins including ETH. In this case we will win, but we will not outperform BTC.
If BTC stays as it is with little volatility in the next days, then there is a very good chance that we enjoy an altcoin season, and in this situation we will outperform BTC by far.
If BTC moves down, then it will take down all alt coins including ETH.
Out of these 3 outcomes, we obviously prefer the 2nd. It will allow us to gain more profits, and also it will allow us to sell some more of our position and bring a better balance in our portfolio. Notice, that a well put portfolio should include an analogy of 2 to 1 between BTC and ETH.
Let’s see what time brings and if it is that kind to us.


* ETH update.png (240.43 kB, 2138x1344 - viewed 343 times.)
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arbusers
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #55 on: January 16, 2021, 06:20:42 PM »
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This is to inform you that I sold an additional 10% of my ETH portfolio to fiat, at 1260$.
Thank you.
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cortomaltese
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #56 on: January 16, 2021, 06:45:57 PM »
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This is to inform you that I sold an additional 10% of my ETH portfolio to fiat, at 1260$.
Thank you.

Thank you for your transparency!
I 'd like to share some thoughts here
The previous time you sold 10% of your ETH i was confident it was a right move , now i have some doubts , since
 ETH shows increasingly strength against BTC ,
 bullish ETH news are hitting every day ,
ETH google trends at ATH and at the same time ETH price not even ATH yet!
IMO sooner or later ETH will break that 1450 mark and will significally outperform BTC
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arbusers
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #57 on: January 16, 2021, 07:42:30 PM »
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Thank you for your transparency!
I 'd like to share some thoughts here
The previous time you sold 10% of your ETH i was confident it was a right move , now i have some doubts , since
 ETH shows increasingly strength against BTC ,
 bullish ETH news are hitting every day ,
ETH google trends at ATH and at the same time ETH price not even ATH yet!
IMO sooner or later ETH will break that 1450 mark and will significally outperform BTC

Thank you for commenting.
Our strategy is based strictly on data and its performance is depending on how accurately we follow it. As you see, we mainly use technical analysis and we focus on the RSI that proves to be a very good signalling index, if read correctly.
We do not pay attention at news because they do not provide any edge against the competition. We do not have a source of information that could be considered a comparative advantage. Frankly, I believe the people who have this advantage are not many.
Data shows that the maximum performance in the long run, derives from a portfolio with an asset allocation of 70/30% for BTC and ETH. So far, we sold 50% of our BTC portfolio and we lagged behind in selling our ETH assets.
Until today, our ETH portfolio is outperforming our BTC portfolio. Was it luck? No, it was a calculated risk. It is also a calculated risk that we hold 80% of our ETH and only 50% of our BTC. This is why we also believe that ETH has good chances to outperform BTC in the near future, and that is why we hold more ETH than what we should originally do. We intent to sell more as prices move higher, or buy more as they fall lower. If price goes to 1450 we will sell a bigger chunk of our portfolio.
If your strategy proves to be better than ours, we will be happy for you. But let's hope we will all be  thankful for what the market will give us until the end, no matter when that end is.
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cortomaltese
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #58 on: January 16, 2021, 08:08:05 PM »
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Thank you for your transparency!
I 'd like to share some thoughts here
The previous time you sold 10% of your ETH i was confident it was a right move , now i have some doubts , since
 ETH shows increasingly strength against BTC ,
 bullish ETH news are hitting every day ,
ETH google trends at ATH and at the same time ETH price not even ATH yet!
IMO sooner or later ETH will break that 1450 mark and will significally outperform BTC

Thank you for commenting.
Our strategy is based strictly on data and its performance is depending on how accurately we follow it. As you see, we mainly use technical analysis and we focus on the RSI that proves to be a very good signalling index, if read correctly.
We do not pay attention at news because they do not provide any edge against the competition. We do not have a source of information that could be considered a comparative advantage. Frankly, I believe the people who have this advantage are not many.
Data shows that the maximum performance in the long run, derives from a portfolio with an asset allocation of 70/30% for BTC and ETH. So far, we sold 50% of our BTC portfolio and we lagged behind in selling our ETH assets.
Until today, our ETH portfolio is outperforming our BTC portfolio. Was it luck? No, it was a calculated risk. It is also a calculated risk that we hold 80% of our ETH and only 50% of our BTC. This is why we also believe that ETH has good chances to outperform BTC in the near future, and that is why we hold more ETH than what we should originally do. We intent to sell more as prices move higher, or buy more as they fall lower. If price goes to 1450 we will sell a bigger chunk of our portfolio.
If your strategy proves to be better than ours, we will be happy for you. But let's hope we will all be  thankful for what the market will give us until the end, no matter when that end is.

What you said made perfect sense.
Our strategies are very similar , i also use TA  and onchain analytics , by no means i overvaluate news i also sold less ETH compared with BTC but that's because ETH lagging behind BTC in terms of price appreciation comparing to their last ATH's , however there's another metric i take in consideration and that's BTC market dominance which is currently around 66-67 % and i believe it will fall significally (maybe to less than 40%) before the end of this bull cycle as it always does.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #59 on: January 16, 2021, 08:14:06 PM »
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I made a reference in the BTC dominance in both threads I believe. The ''less than 40%'' estimation is a long shot. I believe it will take years until we see that figure.
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