Long on ETH (page 5)

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arbusers
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #60 on: January 19, 2021, 07:59:59 AM »
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This is to inform you that I just sold 20% of my ETH assets to fiat for 1380$ each. In total, I sold 40% of my ETH assets.
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apoel81
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #61 on: January 19, 2021, 09:06:11 AM »
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thanks for the update mate
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Goojybooboo
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #62 on: January 19, 2021, 12:23:54 PM »
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Do you ever worry that both BTC and ETH would go to such a high price that you will never be able to buy again?
What if the prices you sell are too low and we never come back to them again?
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CharlieSheen99
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #63 on: January 19, 2021, 12:25:08 PM »
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Do you ever worry that both BTC and ETH would go to such a high price that you will never be able to buy again?
What if the prices you sell are too low and we never come back to them again?

Only god knows that.
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kapetan1122
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #64 on: January 19, 2021, 01:20:14 PM »
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Do you ever worry that both BTC and ETH would go to such a high price that you will never be able to buy again?
What if the prices you sell are too low and we never come back to them again?


I think seeing how stock market is doing in one of the worst economic crisis of all time and is just going up and up even most companies are not producing any goods or they are at 30-50% of their revenue its clear sighn that no rational thinking is leading all markets up and there is no sighn of slowing down,in addition goverments printing billions of $ and big players coming into crypto who knows where this can bring us in the end,but on the same way some bad news can crush all this by 50-90%.

I personaly sell less than i was thinking of because of all this factors but only future will tell us what was the smart move to do.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #65 on: January 19, 2021, 01:50:45 PM »
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I will answer Goojybooboo's answer later today when I find some time. BTW, what a username! Is it taken from e-toro's ad?

Getting back to our analysis. As you can see in the graph, the ETH/BTC ratio came very close to our initial target of 0.0400, without touching it. It went up to 0.38583. I would love to sell these ETH to BTC, but due to the very high prices of both cryptocurrencies, I conclude it is safer to sell to fiat at this point.
As you see from the graph, our strategy to buy ETH and not BTC back in the days, it paid very generously well, as we managed to outperform BTC. Even a BTC that gallops to new heights.

eth:btc.png

Now we let's see if we touch that 0.0400. You see how nervous these markets are, so lets give a small margin for the ratio that would spawn from 0.0400 to 0.0420. I believe it is going to be very difficult to move above this ratio on a race against BTC. Maybe it will need to cool off when/if it goes there.


* eth:btc.png (420.69 kB, 2270x1476 - viewed 433 times.)
« Last Edit: January 19, 2021, 01:52:19 PM by arbusers » Logged
arbusers
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #66 on: January 19, 2021, 05:41:04 PM »
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Do you ever worry that both BTC and ETH would go to such a high price that you will never be able to buy again?
What if the prices you sell are too low and we never come back to them again?

No, I don't worry and frankly, I don't care.

There is always a possibility these prices are skyrocketed and they never return back to today's prices, or the average prices that I sold. I will not pretend being the one that buys at the exact low and sells at the very top. There are so many in Twitter who claim they are.

What I am trying to do is to place my bets when the odds are much higher than the real probability of the outcome. Pretty much you can call it value betting. In the future, there is always the possibility that I buy the same or even more BTCs and ETHs at a much higher price than today's. But when/if this day comes, my odds will be again much higher than the real probability of the outcome. This might sound weird, but you have to take into account, and always respect the maturity of the market. This is a market in its infancy that matures minute after minute.

But at the same time, there is always a possibility, and probably a strong one, the market gives us the chance to enter at a much lower prices than today's. You see these markets being excited for quite some time now. I prefer selling now, than selling when everyone is bottlenecked.

We are in times when asset prices move far far away from fair value. As prices move further away from their long term trend at an every day accelerating speed, my confidence as an investor increases that we are indeed closing in at the late stages of a bubble.

These aberrations can easily outlast the patience of most investors or speculators. And when the prices rise typically at the end of a bull market, impatience is accompanied by envy. As some wise people say, there is nothing more supremely irritating than watching your neighbours (and other anonymous in internet) getting filthy rich.

I will not call for the top of the market every day, week or month. Again, there are so many in Youtube and Twitter who will do that, and one day some of them will be proved correct, and their followers will forget all other days they called for that top. But at the same time, I reserve for my self the right to call for a top when I think I 've seen one. Probably, the market with its compound wisdom proves more clever than us. That is perfectly fine with me, and it will not cause me hard feelings, because I would also take my share of the profits.

However, in this cryptocurrency bubble, we are observing an other irrational phenomenon. There are more analysts calling for 300K-1Mn per Bitcoin, than those calling for the top. These people are targeting at the archetypal behaviours of the human nature. Personally, I wouldn't pay attention at these people. This is called ''New Paradigm'' and it always comes at the end of the bubble. We might see these prices indeed at some point, but we will need a lot of market maturity for this.

Ask your self. This YouTuber makes 5 videos and 10 tweets per day. Where the hell does he find the time to invest. Exactly, he is not investing. He is getting paid for clicks and views. This is pretty much what the ''Dudes'', the ''RobinHoods'' and all other Charlatans are doing with betting. No skin in the game at all, always targeting archetypal behaviours.

But for the shake of the argument, let's suppose that we are indeed entering the New Paradigm, where fiat currency has no value and only cryptos are left as a wealth preservation assets. Can you imagine that world? How would that world be? Probably we have never seen that even in Hollywood movies. So if this world comes true, then no Bitcoin on earth will save you from all other dangers surrounding you. But if this world doesn't come true, then I will be a winner pocketing profits. The New Paradigm, is a complete bullshit for me.

So, what is left after this. The most important think I mentioned above, is market maturity. Market maturity can do miracles. But this will not come with bubbles, bursts, ups and downs. That is why I say, the best think for the market to do right now, is cool off a little bit. Offer itself some time to sleep and rest. But even if it doesn't rest, that is why we sell chunks of our portfolios as prices go up.

In the end, even if prices go even more higher, we keep enough coins to sell at these prices as well, and we will exploit it proportionally.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2021, 06:43:31 PM by arbusers » Logged
cortomaltese
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #67 on: January 19, 2021, 09:12:31 PM »
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1. It's always better to regret because you sold cheap and take less profits than to regret that you didn't sold and be at a loss and it's even better not to have regrets at all.
2. Noone! Let me  tell that one more time... NOONE can call the bottom or the top , money is always being made in between
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Goojybooboo
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #68 on: January 20, 2021, 09:24:00 AM »
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BTW, what a username! Is it taken from e-toro's ad?

Yes.

Thank you for the detailed response. It always helps to have the bigger picture.
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Goojybooboo
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #69 on: January 22, 2021, 11:52:51 AM »
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No, I don't worry and frankly, I don't care.

There is always a possibility these prices are skyrocketed and they never return back to today's prices, or the average prices that I sold. I will not pretend being the one that buys at the exact low and sells at the very top. There are so many in Twitter who claim they are.

What I am trying to do is to place my bets when the odds are much higher than the real probability of the outcome. Pretty much you can call it value betting. In the future, there is always the possibility that I buy the same or even more BTCs and ETHs at a much higher price than today's. But when/if this day comes, my odds will be again much higher than the real probability of the outcome. This might sound weird, but you have to take into account, and always respect the maturity of the market. This is a market in its infancy that matures minute after minute.

But at the same time, there is always a possibility, and probably a strong one, the market gives us the chance to enter at a much lower prices than today's. You see these markets being excited for quite some time now. I prefer selling now, than selling when everyone is bottlenecked.

We are in times when asset prices move far far away from fair value. As prices move further away from their long term trend at an every day accelerating speed, my confidence as an investor increases that we are indeed closing in at the late stages of a bubble.

These aberrations can easily outlast the patience of most investors or speculators. And when the prices rise typically at the end of a bull market, impatience is accompanied by envy. As some wise people say, there is nothing more supremely irritating than watching your neighbours (and other anonymous in internet) getting filthy rich.

I will not call for the top of the market every day, week or month. Again, there are so many in Youtube and Twitter who will do that, and one day some of them will be proved correct, and their followers will forget all other days they called for that top. But at the same time, I reserve for my self the right to call for a top when I think I 've seen one. Probably, the market with its compound wisdom proves more clever than us. That is perfectly fine with me, and it will not cause me hard feelings, because I would also take my share of the profits.

However, in this cryptocurrency bubble, we are observing an other irrational phenomenon. There are more analysts calling for 300K-1Mn per Bitcoin, than those calling for the top. These people are targeting at the archetypal behaviours of the human nature. Personally, I wouldn't pay attention at these people. This is called ''New Paradigm'' and it always comes at the end of the bubble. We might see these prices indeed at some point, but we will need a lot of market maturity for this.

Ask your self. This YouTuber makes 5 videos and 10 tweets per day. Where the hell does he find the time to invest. Exactly, he is not investing. He is getting paid for clicks and views. This is pretty much what the ''Dudes'', the ''RobinHoods'' and all other Charlatans are doing with betting. No skin in the game at all, always targeting archetypal behaviours.

But for the shake of the argument, let's suppose that we are indeed entering the New Paradigm, where fiat currency has no value and only cryptos are left as a wealth preservation assets. Can you imagine that world? How would that world be? Probably we have never seen that even in Hollywood movies. So if this world comes true, then no Bitcoin on earth will save you from all other dangers surrounding you. But if this world doesn't come true, then I will be a winner pocketing profits. The New Paradigm, is a complete bullshit for me.

So, what is left after this. The most important think I mentioned above, is market maturity. Market maturity can do miracles. But this will not come with bubbles, bursts, ups and downs. That is why I say, the best think for the market to do right now, is cool off a little bit. Offer itself some time to sleep and rest. But even if it doesn't rest, that is why we sell chunks of our portfolios as prices go up.

In the end, even if prices go even more higher, we keep enough coins to sell at these prices as well, and we will exploit it proportionally.

What a pity these things are not taught in a university, but again, which faculty should it be. You are mixing Data Analysis, Technical Analysis, History and Psychology.
Thank you for these free lessons.
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arbusers
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #70 on: January 24, 2021, 06:10:00 AM »
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This is to inform you that I sold 40% of my ETH assets to BTC. In total, I sold 80% of my ETH assets.
The reason why I sold to BTC can be seen in the following graph. We were getting ready for this day since late October, and today it was one of the paydays.
We managed to outperform BTC by far, in reality today I bought my BTCs at an approximate price of 8500$ when today's price is 33000$. This is directly depending on the average accumulation price of my ETH as you understand. But at the same time, I bought these BTC at a price 10% lower than the average price that I sold BTCs these last weeks.

ETH:BTC.png

I now keep 20% of my ETH assets and I m perfectly fine with it. If the ratio moves much higher, then I will happily sell it to BTC. If not, I will search for a selling opportunity in fiat. But even if all of these do not materialise, I can wait for lower prices to start accumulating once again.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.


* ETH:BTC.png (577.03 kB, 2274x1482 - viewed 185 times.)
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apoel81
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #71 on: January 24, 2021, 01:40:53 PM »
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What i don't understand is why you sell for btc and not for fiat.

If not mistaken, according to your technical analysis yesterday for btc, you are expecting price drop for btc, no?
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cortomaltese
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #72 on: January 24, 2021, 02:20:50 PM »
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What i don't understand is why you sell for btc and not for fiat.

If not mistaken, according to your technical analysis yesterday for btc, you are expecting price drop for btc, no?

It's not my place to answer this , i am sure arbusers will! However if you read carefully his post you will see that it's like buying BTC at 8.5k!
It's a rare opportunity and he grabbed it!  Maybe if he wait a little more would be even better but in any case doesn't get much better than that!
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arbusers
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #73 on: January 24, 2021, 03:41:30 PM »
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What i don't understand is why you sell for btc and not for fiat.

If not mistaken, according to your technical analysis yesterday for btc, you are expecting price drop for btc, no?

Well done apoel81, because you understood exactly the dilemma I found my self in. That was a decision point and I can tell it was not an easy one. Now let's see what lead me to the decision to exchange the Ethereums for Bitcoins, and not for cash.

As a result of technical analysis, I expect hard time for BTC very soon, see here: https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=7174.msg82036#msg82036. This is already happening, and it will continue in the same manner.
But at the same time, there is another, more important reason, why I expect hard time for BTC, and that was explained here: https://arbusers.com/index.php?topic=7174.msg82015#msg82015
To sum up, both posts are telling us that we expect a correction for BTC. And a target for RSI in the 60s level is already telling us that the correction should be big. We are asking the RSI to fall from 72-73 to 60s. This is a really big move, and it has a bigger magnitude because we are talking about the weekly RSI as you see in our graph, and not about the daily. A move down from 72 to 60s, at this point in time, will be a massive buying opportunity, provided that the bull market is not over yet. As you see in the general frame of our analysis, we think the bull market is not over yet. We haven't seen the cycle's top yet. The 42000$ top should be considered as an early top, and not as the final top of the cycle.

So, if we are correct when we say we haven't seen the top yet, we are also correct to maintain exposure in the market. Then we have 2 options:

Option A. A correction happens as described above (RSI falling from 72-73 to 60s). We have enough cash to exploit it because we sold 50% of our BTC and 40% of our ETH assets to fiat. We also sold a small position from LINK to fiat. In addition, we have reserves, and these reserves are the 20% of ETH and what is left from LINK.

Option B. A correction will not happen as described above (RSI not falling to 60s). Then our decision to exchange ETH for BTC is paying us immediately, because we maintained a larger position in the market.

ETH is more volatile than BTC. We took a calculated risk to carry this volatility for some months and it paid us very well. Frankly, I would prefer this exchange of ETH to BTC to happen at much lower prices for both ETH and BTC. But the market is not there to do favours and it certainly didn't do that favour for me. This morning when I sold the ETH for BTC, not all factors were aligned. So I had to take a decision according to the odds that I had. And these odds were indicating that I should exchange ETH to BTC and not fiat.

But this whole situation might have a bonus for us. What if ETH falls, and BTC stays calm for some more days? Well, in that case, I will buy back the ETH I exchanged today, at a lower price. That would be considered a bingo. Visualise the following. We have 2 growing bubbles side by side (BTC and ETH). But these bubbles are not growing with the same pace. Today one bubble grows bigger but tomorrow the other bubble takes the lead. What we are doing here, is jumping from one bubble to another, in order to get the maximum profit.

There is also a hidden dragon in the story. What if indeed the 42000$ top was the final one. Well in that case the market will not pay us according to our expectations, but it already paid us a moderate profit.

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arbusers
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Re: Long on ETH
« Reply #74 on: January 24, 2021, 05:27:48 PM »
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I know you will not like a rapid change of opinion, but I always reserve the right to change my mind. Especially when it comes to safety.

The above analysis has a mistake, that will cost us a lot under specific circumstances.
Before continuing to read this post, Were you able to spot it?

Here is the answer.

There is also a hidden dragon in the story. What if indeed the 42000$ top was the final one. Well in that case the market will not pay us according to our expectations, but it already paid us a moderate profit.

Well, if the price of BTC goes down as expected, and we do take advantage of the move when/if the RSI goes to the 60s, we will be lethally exposed if 42000$ is indeed the universal top and a new cycle already begun. If this comes true, we will not capitalise this current market cycle.

Therefore, I just sold the BTC that I received this morning after selling ETH, to fiat. I repeat, todays sell of ETH, went to BTC and just now, it went to fiat.

Like this, we will not capitalise to the maximum extend if we have a new top, but we will not die if 42000 is the end of the cycle.

Again, I am sorry for the rapid change of opinion, but I reserve the right to change my opinion for the safety of the investment.

So far, 50% of BTC and 80% of ETH is sold to fiat. 20% of LINK were sold to fiat also.

Information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other advice. Information is general in nature and is not specific to you. You should not make any decision, financial or otherwise, based on any of the Information without undertaking your own due diligence.
« Last Edit: January 24, 2021, 05:32:24 PM by arbusers » Logged
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