Betfair soccer correct score value bets

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kustef
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kustef

Betfair soccer correct score value bets
« on: October 30, 2020, 08:32:42 PM »

Rarely i start topic i always looking for answers for myself but now iam not sure..

How to calculate % of valuebets at correct score market on betfair?  Please take a look on attached screenshot
For example
If iam able to place bet correct score  2:0 with odds 5.9 at softbook .. how much ROI i could expect in long run ? Is it worth of it to place such bets? Or better to take higher odds?

Another question.. if i have opportunity to place bet correct score 1:3 with odds 130 .. what do you suggest? take it or leave it ?

Any idea how to calculate value off this odds?

thank you for answers..
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autobetting
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Re: Betfair soccer correct score value bets
« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2020, 10:50:12 PM »

the odds on betfair are following some different kind of poisson distribution. not the usual one but some abbreviations of it. one useful tool is from prematchtrading.com to find missaligned odds in the correct score markets and i find its a useful tool. especially successfull is the scalping of the most probable scores with the help of weight of money with back to lay or lay to back trades. however if you find higher odds with soft books you should definitely take them because almost every time they represent value even if the market hasnt formed because the back odds in an unmature market are too low and the odds on the lay side are too high. i always made profit when backing correct scores with bwin for example in the long run. if you want to calculate the real value of the correct scores you need to read some lecture of it. there are some good books from the same author. you can even automate the process with excel. however,dont expect too much. the margins are slim
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kustef
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Re: Betfair soccer correct score value bets
« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2020, 07:15:39 AM »

Hi

Thanks for reply so where is the actions it is worth of taking the value odds
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